071
FXUS61 KBOX 011747
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
147 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Elongated high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes yields
mainly dry weather through the work week save for a few isolated
showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures moderate to above
normal levels by Thursday and especially Friday. An approaching
cold front may bring a period of scattered showers
Saturday...but a washout is not expected. Dry and pleasant
weather should return by Sunday, but a disturbance moving in
from the west may result in unsettled/wet weather by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
925 AM Update...

Stratus and fog slowly lifting and this trend will continue
this morning. But shallow moisture below the inversion will
result in lots of strato-cu today. Overall more clouds than sun
today with most sunshine across the CT valley. Onshore flow also
looks to generate a few scattered sprinkles across the region
today, but any will be short-lived and not amount to much with
dry weather dominating the majority of today.

Temperatures today will be influenced by onshore flow, with most of
eastern MA coast struggling to climb into the mid 60s. Temps will be
milder inland from the coast, especially towards the lower CT
River Valley where a few locations may reach 70+.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Elongated high pressure continues to remain anchored in the Canadian
Maritimes, influencing the synoptic pattern through the near term
forecast. With generally no change expected to the pattern over the
next 24 hours, thinking that fog is likely to develop once again
this evening in the River Valleys, but may perhaps be absent from
our radiational sites across eastern MA thanks to more expansive
cloud cover. Light showers remain possible into the first half of
the overnight hours thanks to continued onshore flow. Lows will be
bounded by dewpoints, falling back into the low 50s for most.

Overall, a generally mundane midweek is expected with clouds and
seasonable temperatures Wednesday as temps warm into the mid 60s for
most. Shortwave approaches from the west the second half of
Wednesday bringing showers to upstate NY, but aforementioned high
pressure does it`s job in eating away at the precip shield as
shortwave moves east before dissipating. The NAM shows this
effective "poof" of precipitation quite well, with a very low chance
of spot shower making it into the Berkshires before 00Z
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points...

* Dry & very pleasant Thu & esp Fri with highs well into the 70s
* Period of scattered showers possible Sat...but not a washout
* Dry Sun but unsettled/wet weather may arrive by Mon

Details...

Mid level ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
continue to result in mainly dry and very pleasant weather Thu &
Fri. The higher than normal height fields will also result in above
normal temps. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 70s Thu
and the middle to upper 70s by Fri. 850T reach around +12C by
Fri...so it is possible a few spots in the lower CT Valley flirt
with 80 degrees. Regardless...very nice early October weather is on
tap to close out the work week. Overnight low temps should mainly be
in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.

An approaching shortwave/cold front will cross the region on
Sat...which may bring a period of scattered showers to the region
but not expecting a washout. High temps Sat will still be a bit
above normal...mainly in the lower to middle 70s but some upper 60s
along the immediate coast. Behind the shortwave Sat...brief mid
level ridging should bring dry weather to close out the weekend on
Sun with highs mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

A fairly potent shortwave trough looks to approach the region from
the west on Mon. Still nearly a week out...but may see low pressure
develop off the coast in response. Thinking a period of
unsettled/wet weather may kick off the start of the new work week
by next Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence.

MVFR/VFR ceilings persist through the rest of today with strato
cu sticking around across the area. ENE winds at 5-10 knots
should continue.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

MVFR widespread with IFR possible towards the CT Valley and ORH
with fog redeveloping. LIFR is possible, but confidence is low;
not included in any TAFs for now. Winds calming down to be less
than 10 knots at ENE/NE for much of the area, aside from ACK..

Wednesday...Moderate Confidence

Similar pattern to today`s expected. AM IFR/MVFR expected to
improve to VFR after the sun comes up. Light E/NE winds
continue.

BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. MVFR/VFR conditions
expected to continue. Timing for VFR early tonight set around
23Z, but confidence not high.

BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. VFR continuing for today,
then dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR tonight. Lower confidence
in IFR, so did not include in TAF for now, but do believe it to
be possible.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday...High confidence.

Quiet weather conditions today with east to northeast
winds 15 to 20 knots and seas 3 to 4 foot. Seas and winds remain
below S.C.A throughout the period due to surface high pressure
over the coastal waters. Marine stratus and patchy fog and a
passing shower again possible on Tuesday night. Status quo
conditions expected Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...KJC/Frank
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Hrencecin/KS
MARINE...Frank/KS