078
FXUS61 KBOX 190730
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase from south to north tonight into tomorrow,
with the best chances across the Cape and Islands decreasing
significantly to the north and west. Rain chances continue
through the first half of the weekend, highest over the Cape
and island. Gusty northeast winds will keep temperatures near or
below normal for much of the region tomorrow into the weekend.
Next chance of rain comes around mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Today

Area of low pressure south of southern New England has stalled due
to a blocking area of high pressure centered off the coast of Nova
Scotia. This feature will dominate the weather pattern in southern
New England through the weekend. Persistent northeast winds will
support unsettled weather and cloudiness over the coastal areas
through at least Friday afternoon. Today, expect steady periods of
rain over portions of southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and The Islands.
Some uncertainty with respect to how far north and west shower
activity will extend, but thinking roughly the I-95 corridor will be
the boundary between wet and dry. Cloudiness and onshore flow will
support cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s this
afternoon.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Tonight and Tomorrow

Little change in the overall pattern through tomorrow. Temperatures
cool to the low 60s overnight with persistent northeast winds and
continued shower activity across eastern MA, RI, and especially Cape
Cod and The Islands. Northeast winds strengthen into tomorrow
afternoon with some gusts from 20 to 30 mph possible. High temps in
the mid to upper 60s across eastern MA and RI while the CT RIver
Valley will be a bit warmer in the low 70s. While there will be
considerable cloudiness across southern New England through Friday
afternoon, locations out west could see a few breaks of sun and
should stay clear of the shower activity associated with the
offshore low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Rain chances linger into Saturday, especially across eastern MA.
  Trending drier late this weekend.

* Temperatures will trend below normal with the lowest on Sunday
  before steadily increasing next week.

* Minor coastal flooding possible along the east coast of MA during
  Saturday afternoon`s high tides.

Guidance starting to come into better agreement with some of the
forecast details into this weekend. However, that is not to say that
all uncertainty has been resolved. Southern New England will still
be between a large high pressure trying to nudge south from eastern
Canada and a lingering low pressure well SE of our region. Where the
northern edge of the steadier precipitation will be something to
monitor with later forecasts. Still have the greatest confidence in
rainfall lingering across eastern MA, and especially the Cape and
islands.

Eventually, the high pressure to the north will wind out, driving
the low pressure farther offshore and returning dry weather early
next week.

Near normal low temperatures with below normal high temperatures
expected during this portion of the forecast.

Gusty NE winds through this weekend will result in rough seas. Given
existing higher astronomical tides, some minor coastal flooding
is possible during the Saturday afternoon high tide. Much will
depend on how much water can retreat during the Friday night low
tide along the east coast of MA.&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z... High Confidence in Trends

Conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR/LIFR over the coastal
terminal with -SHRA overspreading the south coast through
sunrise. Steady winds out of the northeast from 5 to 10 knots.
VFR at BDL/BAF/ORH.

Today..High Confidence in trends

Steady northeast winds will support LIFR/IFR conditions for
most of the day. Some improvements to MVFR ceilings possibly by
mid-afternoon. Interior terminals remain VFR with low chances
for any precipitation.

Tomorrow Night... Moderate Confidence

Rain continues over the eastern terminals with IFR/MVFR ceilings
near 1000 feet. Some MVFR vsbys possible in SHRA. Some
uncertainty in westward extent of lower ceilings, especially at
ORH which will be close to the transition from MVFR to VFR
ceilings. VFR continues at BAF/BDL.

Friday...

More MVFR/IFR ceilings and showers at the eastern terminals.
Northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots at coastal terminals
and 10 to 15 knots across the interior. Cape/Islands terminals
could see gusts from 25 to 30 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in Trends

IFR/LIFR conditions may improve to MVFR after 16Z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Marine

Today through Friday

Marine conditions deteriorate over the next 48 hours as an area of
low pressure meanders south of the coastal waters. Northeast winds
from 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 25 knots today will increase on
Friday with some gale force gusts possible. Confidence in widespread
gale force gusts is low at this time, so no gale warnings are in
effect, but SCY will be in effect likely through much of the
weekend. The persistent northeast winds will also result in building
seas over the east coastal waters with significant wave heights
rising to 8 to 10 feet by Friday afternoon. High surf advisories
will likely be needed for eastward facing shorelines. Furthermore,
there will be a risk for minor coastal flooding for several high
tide cycles through the weekend.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers likely.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MAZ007-019-020-022>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM