796
FXUS61 KBOX 161932
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
332 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Ocean effect clouds linger into early tonight over eastern MA, along
with a low chance for an ocean effect shower or two over the Cape
and Islands early tonight. A warming trend kicks off Friday as the
colder airmass starts to move offshore. The pattern turns more
unsettled going into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Chilly and breezy overnight

Dry conditions expected to continue through tonight with a low
chance of an ocean effect shower or two out towards Cape Cod and the
Islands. Latest high-res guidance indicates the best chance will be
generally after 8 PM tonight, decreasing as the night goes on.
Continued breezy NW winds will continue through the night, but the
lack of mixing should keep winds the elevated winds at 850 mb from
coming to the surface over the interior. Gustier conditions can be
expected over the Cape and Islands tonight as mixing will take
longer to end, allowing 35 knot winds at 850 mb to mix down. Gusts
approaching and exceeding 30 mph remain possible there into tonight.

With continued NW winds overnight, it may feel cooler than the
actual air temperature. Despite lows in the upper 40s tonight over
the Cape and Islands, it may feel closer to the 30s with the wind
chill. Over the interior, a similar story: breezy NW winds will
continue, making temperatures in the 30s feel more like the 20s when
accounting for wind chill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Winds diminish a bit in the afternoon

* Dry and slightly warmer Friday

Not much has changed from the previous forecast. The cold pool over
the region will shift more offshore tomorrow as an upper level ridge
begins to build in behind it. Height rises and approaching surface
high pressure will allow temperatures aloft to recover slightly,
getting to just between 5-8C at 925 mb by Friday afternoon. Daytime
highs will improve from the mid 50s to the low 60s for much of
southern New England.

With high pressure approaching and the upper level trough moving
more offshore, wind gusts will start to drop off in the afternoon,
though it will remain breezy with good mixing. Forecast soundings
show 850 mb winds dropping below 30 knots in the afternoon over the
interior. Breezy conditions will continue to diminish going into
Friday night with clearing skies. With winds decreasing, wind chill
will not be as much of a factor overnight. Low temperatures expected
to be in the 30s for much of the region once again with the Cape and
Islands in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry weekend with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun in
  valley locations
* Looking unsettled next week as multiple shortwaves move through
  the region.

Details...

This Weekend...

Guidance shows a 576dm ridge building over the northeast CONUS by
Saturday afternoon. This ridging will result in continued dry
weather with moderating temperatures. 850mb temps increase to +7-
+11C through the weekend. Model soundings show modest mixing so
temperatures will be somewhat mild, rising into mid 60s on Saturday,
and perhaps warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially in
interior river valleys on Sunday.

Next Week...

Still seeing good agreement amongst global models in a relatively
deep shortwave trough moving in from the Great Lakes to start the
week. Main disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF is the shape and
orientation of the trough. GFS has a much more progressive,
postively-tiled trough while the EURO wants to cut it off from the
mean zonal flow. In terms of sensible weather impacts, the GFS
solution would result in more of a quick-hitting area of showers and
perhaps a low-topped thunderstorm or two along the cold front Monday
afternoon before things quickly cleared out. A more prolonged rain
event would be possible if the EURO solution panned out, but details
will be ironed out in future forecast updates. Regardless, the NBM
has increasing POPs Monday morning, peaking during the afternoon
before decreasing in the evening. Looking at the large-scale pattern
for Tues and Weds, a much more significant trough begins to dig over
the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Although it is still
fairly early, ensemble guidance suggests the trough becomes
negatively-tilted as heights build over the western CONUS.
Temperatures next week should be somewhat cooler with more in the
way of cloud cover with highs in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

Rest of Today...High Confidence.

VFR. 4-5k ft cigs over the Cape/Islands continue to expand
across eastern MA through the rest of the afternoon. Patchy MVFR
possible outer Cape late today. NW gusts 25-30 kt.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft
will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There
is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the
surface again tonight. Given the possibility, opted to include
wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight.
Confidence not high enough to include over coastal terminals.

Tomorrow...High Confidence.

VFR with MVFR possibly lingering over the Cape and Islands. Not
quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30
knots near the waters. Gusts expected to diminish in the
afternoon hours as strong winds aloft start to move more
offshore.

Tomorrow Night...High Confidence.

VFR. Light NW winds around 5 kts or less for much of southern
New England; around 10 kts over the Cape and Islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in LLWS.

Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more
northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Chance for LLWS if
decoupling occurs tonight.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday Night...High confidence.

Gale-force winds will last through tonight, ending Friday
morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will
bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale-force winds are not
expected after Friday morning, winds will remain around 25-30
knots through Friday afternoon, and seas will remain elevated
at 6-8 feet.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will
cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight,
which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens
Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket
reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet
MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves
reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over
flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to
leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water
level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet
MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor
flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach
12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233>235-237.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin/FT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KP