115
FXUS61 KBOX 062341
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
641 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable weather this weekend will be accompanied by frequent
gusts on Saturday, with easing winds into Sunday. A weak clipper
system passes to our north for Monday, perhaps a stray shower,
followed by dry and mild conditions through next week. The next
chance of active weather comes late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key messages:

* Cold front passes through this afternoon into the evening hours

* Strong to damaging wind gusts expected overnight into Friday,
  especially in the higher terrain

The cold front from this week`s low passes through southern New
England tonight, shifting winds more to the NW and bringing back
more seasonable temperatures with a strong burst of cold air
advection. Although dry, this front may encourage some pop-up
convective showers ahead of it. This dry front is expected to
clear out the lingering low level moisture, which will decrease
cloud cover. With the overnight inversion, winds may still be
capped at 45 mph across the lower elevations, but gusts to 50
mph cannot be ruled out. This is especially the case in the
eastern slopes of the Berkshires and the Worcester Hills where
gusts to 60 mph are still possible tonight. For these reasons,
High Wind Warnings are will be in effect for the eastern slopes
of the Berkshires and the Worcester Hills starting tonight going
into Friday while the rest of southern New England will be
under a Wind Advisory.

Lows tonight are expected to sink to 20s and some spots in the low
30s for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Windy and dry Friday with seasonable temperatures

The windy conditions overnight are expected to persist into the day
Friday, and even intensify with daytime mixing starting shortly
after sunrise. Clouds clear out, and BUFKIT soundings indicate
mixing possible up to 850 mb or higher across southern New England
where LLJ-enforced NW winds may be around 65 kt or higher. Cooler
air at these levels will also mix down, continuing to keep
temperatures in the 30s and 40s across the region. It will likely
feel colder, though, due to the gusty winds. Possible impacts from
these winds could include powerline damage and tree damage; recent
rainfall and snowmelt have likely softened the soil. The risks for
this damage are highest among the higher terrain.

Dry and windy conditions Friday are expected to continue going into
Saturday, although winds will not be as strong as early in the day
Friday once we reach the evening hours. Lows Friday night into
Saturday morning are expected to be in the 20s and 30s once
more.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Strong wind gusts continue into Saturday, then eases into Sunday.

* Near seasonable temperatures this weekend is followed by warming
  trend through next week.

* Weak clipper system brings a low chance for showers Monday, with
  the next hit of widespread precipitation potentially late next
  week.

No whole sale changes made to the extended, the two biggest points
to get across will be the continued gusty wind on Saturday and then
the warm up into next week. As for the mid-level pattern, will have
northwest flow through this weekend with a shift to near zonal flow
early next week. While there are no major systems, moisture starved
clipper system rides down from central Canada, bringing a chance
for a stray rain/snow shower across northern Massachusetts. By late
week a ripple in the mid-level flow allows for the next chance of
any rain, some time next Thursday.

As mentioned, gusts remain elevated into Saturday and perhaps
Saturday night. 850mb jet has weakened, wind aloft is 35 to 50
knots, the strongest wind aloft centered across the western and
central part of Massachusetts. West/northwest gust are in the range
of 35-45 MPH with localized higher gusts up to 50mph not out of the
question, mainly for the Worcester Hills and the eastern slope of
the Berkshire. And future forecast updates may want to include an
extension of the wind advisory. Will remain breezy into Sunday as
well, though gusts would have fallen below advisory criteria by
then.

On to temperatures, near normal this weekend with highs in the low
to middle 40s and nightly lows in the middle to upper 20s. There is
a more noticeable warm up due to near zonal flow and modified airmass
off the Pacific Ocean reaching the northeast, thus a warming trend
into the middle part of next week. There is some spread amongst the
NBM guidance, with the 25th to 75th percentile spread from 10 to 15
degrees across southern New England. Nevertheless, highs well into
the 50s and low 60s are expected Tuesday to Thursday, with nightly
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Lingering LIFR to MVFR ceilings with -RA south and east of I-95
through 02z/04z, then VFR there after with the passage of the
cold front. WNW winds gust between 35 and 50 knots. Strongest of
those winds will tend to be in the high terrain.

Friday and Friday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW winds gust between 35 and 50 knots. Strongest
of those winds will tend to be in the high terrain.

KBOS TAF...High confidence on trends with moderate confidence
on timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence on trends with moderate confidence
on timing.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt.

Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Sunday through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

The previously issued Gale Watches have been converted to Gale
Warnings starting at 00z tonight. W to NW winds are expected to
start gusting over the waters before midnight tonight and may gust
to 45 kt. Seas expected to be from 7 to 12 ft. Some spots could see
a storm force gust, but this would be very limited.

Friday and Friday Night:

Gale conditions are expected to continue through Friday with gusts
to 45 kt possible, especially on the northern outer waters going
into Friday night. Seas expected to remain around 7 to 12 ft before
beginning to recede slightly going into Saturday, but they will
likely remain elevated.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Looking into Friday morning`s high tide...a period of strong
northwest winds producing a 1 to 1.25 inch storm surge could
allow areas such as Nantucket Harbor and the bay side of Cape
Cod to see very minor splashover. Coastal flood statements
could be needed, although significant impacts are not expected.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MAZ003-005>007-010-011-
     013>024.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MAZ002-004-008-009-
     012-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Frank/Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Dooley/Hrencecin
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Loconto