051
FXUS61 KBOX 281725
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1225 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and blustery conditions today, then a quick moving clipper
tracking to the north will bring light snow accumulations to far
northern MA tonight. Turning briefly milder Saturday ahead of a cold
front before temperatures fall sharply with gusty northwest winds
later Saturday and Saturday night. A few showers or perhaps even a
snow squall may accompany the frontal passage Saturday afternoon.
Blustery and rather cold weather follows Sunday into Monday,
with temperatures well below normal. A warming trend starts
Tuesday with mild conditions and an increasing risk of rain
Wednesday and Thursday as a strong low pressure approaches from
the west. Drier and more seasonable conditions follows next
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Key Messages...

* Partly to mostly sunny and breezy today
* High temps in the 40s perhaps flirting with 50 southeast MA

Previous forecast is on track. Despite cold advection behind the
morning front...a relatively mild start and the increasing late
Feb sun angle will result in high temps into the 40s across the
region. In fact...given that the cold air aloft will be slower
to move into southeast MA highs probably reach the upper 40s to
perhaps near 50 in a few spots. It will be breezy today with WNW
wind gusts of 20-30 mph and perhaps up to 35 mph in the high
terrain. So it will feel a bit chillier than the actual temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

* A clipper system may bring minor snow accumulations north of the
  MA Pike tonight

* Breezy and turning briefly milder Sat ahead of a cold front, then
  sharply falling temps and gusty NW winds later Sat and Sat evening
  behind the arctic front

* A few showers and possibly a snow squall may accompany the cold
  front Sat afternoon

* Very cold and blustery Sat night with wind chills dropping into
  the single numbers with subzero wind chills over the higher
  elevations

Tonight...

Clipper system will track eastward across the Gt Lakes with modest
warm advection pattern developing as low level jet moves into the
region. Best moisture and lift will be to the north where a period
of accumulating snow is expected. However, southern extent of the
snow should clip northern MA where a coating to an inch is possible
north of the MA Pike. Low risk for 2 inches across western Franklin
county. Bulk of the precip should remain north of the MA Pike with
generally dry conditions to the south. Lows will occur during the
first half of the night with readings mid 20s to lower 30s, then
slowly rising temps overnight as southerly winds increase. Gusts to
20-25 mph will develop near the south coast late tonight.

Saturday and Saturday night...

Dry slot moves into the region from the west during the morning, but
an area of deeper moisture may result in a few brief showers in
eastern New Eng before the drier air moves in. Otherwise, breezy SW
winds will bring briefly milder air into SNE ahead of the arctic
front. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s across the coastal
plain with 40s interior high terrain. However, the arctic front
quickly sweeps across the region during the afternoon with sharply
falling temps and gusty NW winds with temps dropping into the 20s
and 30s by evening. The arctic front may be accompanied by a few
rain/snow showers and perhaps even a few snow squalls in western MA.
Parameters are favorable for squalls with low level frontogenesis
and instability acting on sufficient low level moisture. Boundary
layer temps will be too mild for snow squalls outside of the higher
elevations in central and W MA. NW winds will gust to 30-40 mph
behind the front.

Clearing Sat night behind the front and turning much colder with
gusty NW winds. Lows will drop into the teens with single numbers
higher terrain. Wind chills late Sat night and Sun morning will be
in the single numbers, but zero to -10F over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Gusty and rainy Saturday with a quick shot of flurries possible in
  the afternoon/evening.

* Bitterly cold Sunday and Monday nights with arctic air from Canada.

* Another round of rain for Tuesday and Wednesday, but uncertain on
  exact arrival time.

Sunday and Monday...

An upper-level trough and impressively large surface high move in
Sunday from the Canadian Prairies, bringing dry weather and arctic
air to southern New England. Model guidance is not in great
agreement on low temperatures for Sunday and Monday mornings...
ECMWF ensembles seem to be a bit of an outlier at this time as
they`re pushing for the coldest temperatures, with northern and
western MA between -5F and -10F. GFS and Canadian ensembles are
more reasonable, hovering between -1F and +3F. Elected to go
somewhere in the middle with the NBM for now, keeping surface
temps near 0F along the northern MA line and bringing temps near
10F further south into the I-95 corridor between PVD and BOS.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The high should move out over our southern waters sometime on
Tuesday morning, and another low looks to track along the US-
Canadian border bringing another round of rain to southern New
England on Wednesday. Given that we`re still almost a week out,
exact timing of the rain is a bit of a toss-up, but it`s possible we
could see rain as early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon...High Confidence.

VFR. NW wind gusts of 20-30 knots.

Tonight...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR...outside a few brief snow showers perhaps mixed with
rain mainly north of I-90 with the best chance north of Route 2.
that may result in brief vsby/cigs restrictions. Winds quickly
diminish early this evening becoming light and variable. Winds
will then shift to the S and increase to between 5 and 15 knots
after midnight.

Saturday...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR. A few brief/localized rain showers perhaps in the
form of snow showers in the high terrain possible after 18z.
This will be associated with a strong cold front and may result
in briefly localized lower cigs/vsbys. S winds become SW by
lunch time Sat with gusts of 25 knots developing. Then a strong
cold front crosses the region with a surge of WNW 30-40 knot
wind gusts after 20z/21z.

Saturday night...High Confidence.

VFR. NW wind gusts of 30-40 knots early in the evening
diminishing to between 20 and 30 knots after midnight.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday night...High confidence.

W-WNW gusts to 25 kt develop today with briefly diminishing winds by
this evening. Winds turn S tonight and increase late tonight into
Sat with gusts to 25-30 kt developing. A wind shift to W-NW late Sat
and Sat evening behind a strong cold front with marginal gale force
gusts to 35 kt possible across eastern MA waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Freezing spray.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ230>237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...McMinn/Nash
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...KJC/McMinn/Nash