573
FXUS61 KBOX 280733
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
233 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds expected today with scattered light snow showers
possible for western MA and pockets of flurries for the interior.
Still colder for Saturday but not as windy compared to Friday. Low
pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night
bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for Monday as
a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible storminess around
Tuesday which could bring snow and/or rain to Southern New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Gusty and cold.

* Scattered show showers/flurries possible over western/central MA.

By 9-10am winds should pick up in earnest as the sun/warming sfc
temps together with mid level cold advection lead to a well mixed
boundary layer, mixing down stronger winds than we saw yesterday.
Model sounding indicate gusts of 40+kts at the top of the boundary
layer...thinking we should realize gusts of 30-40 mph at the
surface. The best chance for stronger gusts to 45 mph remains in the
higher terrain of the Berkshires. Expect a colder day today thanks
to continued cold NW flow in the low/mid levels; the winds will make
it feel more like the 20s to low 30s. This trajectory also lines up
to pull some moisture from the Great Lakes in the western periphery
of SNE in the form of light snow shower/flurries. This may make it
as far as central MA but isn`t expected to lead to any appreciable
accumulation. Tonight winds likely won`t diminish much after sunset,
but continue through around midnight before lessening more
significantly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Still cold Saturday with less breezy winds.

Saturday high pressure continues to push overhead lessening the
pressure gradient (and resulting winds) while still directing cool
NW flow into the region. Thus, expecting winds to be breezy but not
as strong as Friday, on the order of 20-30 mph gusts. Highs will be
similar to Friday, in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Less windy on Saturday.

* Temps warm Sunday before dropping again by Monday.

* Quick hitting rain Sunday/Sunday night.

* Possibility of a wintry storm Tuesday, favoring interior/high
  elevations for snow with rain elsewhere. Still far too soon to
  nail down these details.

A decent warm-up is in store for Sunday ahead of another round of
rain. A warm front lifts north bringing first increasing cloudcover
followed by isentropically forced rainfall overspreading from west
to east Sunday afternoon into the evening. The parent low tracks
well north of the region keeping temperatures solidly warm enough to
fall as all rain (highs in the 40s and 50s). It also moves rather
quickly from the Great Lakes into Quebec, dragging the cold front
through and shutting off precipitation overnight Sunday. Most
locations pick up less than a quarter inch of rain followed by a
dry, colder, and breezy Monday as high pressure briefly passes
overhead.

The potential first real storm system of the winter season continues
to be possible on Tuesday. While important specifics remain unknown,
global guidance is in good agreement that we will have a storm
system in the vicinity around Tuesday. This comes as a  mid level
trough digging into the eastern U.S. induces a deepening surface low
that should lift from the Mid-Atlantic through/past New England.
Whether the eventual track is offshore (favoring more snow in SNE)
or directly over us (favoring northern New England snow) the latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance has not changed much in
indicating an interior/high elevation snow event and a rain or snow
to rain scenario for the lower elevations including the I-95
corridor. If the low track continues to shift further north it
becomes less and less of a concern. For now, keeping in mind the
still warm ocean temps (40s and 50s) and lack of a prolonged sub
freezing antecedent airmass, continuing to think positive-snow-depth
output is a more realistic look at any snow potential. We will learn
more over the coming days. Regardless, rising heights and quieter
weather look to follow Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z update...

Through 12Z...High Confidence.

VFR. SW winds 8-12 kts.

Friday...High Confidence.

VFR. Gusty winds develop 14-16z. W winds 15-25 kts with gusts
25-30 kts. Can`t rule out an isolated gusts up to 35 kts, mainly
for the the higher terrain and Cape/Islands. Periods of SCT-BKN
decks 5000-10,000 ft. Can`t rule out an isolated flurry for
western terminals.

Friday night...High Confidence.

VFR. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts through 06z before
winds diminish.

Saturday...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds 8-10 kts gusting to 20 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, slight
chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday... High confidence.

* Gale Warning for Friday through early Saturday across all waters.

Higher winds expected on Friday. Winds expected to increased after
15z. West winds 25-35 kts with gusts at 40 kts. Greatest probability
of hitting Gale criteria more consistently will be the southern
waters Friday late morning and afternoon. Winds and seas slowly
decrease overnight Friday into early Saturday. Gale Warning will be
in effect for all marine zones starting 12z Friday, through 12Z
Saturday.

Seas increase to 6-10 ft on Friday, diminishing by later Saturday.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW