Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
154
UXUS97 KBOU 211242
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0641 MDT Thursday, August 21, 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, August 21, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 89.7 F/32.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1440 ft/min (7.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20259 ft MSL (14950 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 99.0 F/37.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12319 ft MSL (7010 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/22....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 16367 ft MSL (11058 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 08/22.......... Poor
Remarks... First cold front arrives by early Friday morning.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:17:50 / 19:47:10 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 29 min 20 sec (809 min 20 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:02:30 MDT... 62.06 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/21/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 17166 ft MSL (11857 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16985 ft MSL (11676 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17782 ft MSL (12473 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.8
K index......................... +10.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.3 -87.3 300 11 6 1.3 0.7 M M M M M
45000 -61.2 -78.2 295 22 11 6.8 3.7 M M M M M
40000 -50.2 -58.4 295 32 16 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
38000 -45.5 -49.9 300 31 16 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
36000 -40.7 -41.3 305 30 15 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
34000 -36.0 -32.8 305 26 13 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
32000 -31.3 -24.3 310 22 11 8.2 4.5 M M M M M
30000 -26.0 -14.8 315 22 12 7.8 4.3 49.8 121.6 9.6 M M
29000 -23.7 -10.7 320 23 12 7.7 4.2 49.1 120.4 9.2 M M
28000 -21.6 -6.9 325 22 11 6.0 3.3 48.0 118.5 8.4 M M
27000 -19.8 -3.6 330 21 11 6.0 3.3 46.5 115.7 7.3 M M
26000 -18.1 -0.6 340 20 10 6.0 3.3 45.2 113.3 6.3 M M
25000 -16.3 2.7 345 20 10 5.7 3.1 43.8 110.9 5.3 M M
24000 -14.6 5.7 345 19 10 5.7 3.1 42.2 108.0 4.0 M M
23000 -12.9 8.8 345 18 9 5.7 3.1 40.8 105.4 2.8 M M
22000 -11.1 12.0 340 18 9 6.8 3.7 39.5 103.1 1.8 M M
21000 -9.2 15.4 335 18 9 6.8 3.7 38.4 101.0 0.7 M M
20000 -7.2 19.0 330 18 9 7.0 3.8 37.4 99.3 -0.2 1422 7.2
19500 -6.2 20.8 330 18 9 7.7 4.2 37.0 98.5 -0.6 1378 7.0
19000 -5.0 23.0 330 16 8 8.5 4.6 36.7 98.1 -0.9 1326 6.7
18500 -3.8 25.2 330 15 8 8.5 4.6 36.5 97.7 -1.1 1274 6.5
18000 -2.5 27.5 335 14 7 9.0 4.9 36.3 97.4 -1.3 1221 6.2
17500 -1.2 29.8 340 13 7 9.0 4.9 36.2 97.1 -1.4 1166 5.9
17000 0.2 32.4 350 12 6 9.1 5.0 36.1 96.9 -1.5 1111 5.6
16500 1.6 34.9 350 12 6 9.3 5.1 36.0 96.7 -1.6 1055 5.4
16000 3.0 37.4 355 12 6 9.3 5.1 35.9 96.6 -1.7 998 5.1
15500 5.0 41.0 005 12 6 8.9 4.9 35.7 96.3 -1.8 913 4.6
15000 6.4 43.5 005 12 6 8.9 4.9 35.6 96.0 -1.9 858 4.4
14500 7.7 45.9 015 11 6 8.9 4.9 35.4 95.8 -2.1 805 4.1
14000 8.9 48.0 025 11 6 9.1 5.0 35.3 95.5 -2.3 753 3.8
13500 10.2 50.4 035 10 5 8.0 4.4 35.1 95.2 -2.6 701 3.6
13000 11.5 52.7 040 10 5 8.2 4.5 34.8 94.7 -2.7 648 3.3
12500 12.7 54.9 045 8 4 8.2 4.5 34.6 94.3 -2.9 595 3.0
12000 13.9 57.0 045 5 3 8.2 4.5 34.3 93.8 -3.2 543 2.8
11500 15.2 59.4 040 3 1 8.4 4.6 34.1 93.4 -3.4 492 2.5
11000 16.4 61.5 015 1 1 8.6 4.7 33.9 93.0 -3.7 440 2.2
10500 17.5 63.5 300 1 1 5.1 2.8 33.6 92.5 -4.0 391 2.0
10250 17.9 64.2 280 1 0 7.0 3.8 33.2 91.8 -4.4 374 1.9
10000 18.5 65.3 245 1 1 10.6 5.8 33.2 91.8 -4.5 347 1.8
9750 19.2 66.6 225 2 1 9.8 5.4 33.2 91.8 -4.6 320 1.6
9500 19.8 67.6 220 2 1 7.9 4.3 33.2 91.8 -4.7 294 1.5
9250 20.2 68.4 210 2 1 7.2 4.0 33.0 91.4 -5.0 273 1.4
9000 20.8 69.4 205 3 1 9.8 5.4 32.9 91.2 -5.2 249 1.3
8750 21.5 70.7 200 3 1 10.3 5.7 32.9 91.3 -5.3 221 1.1
8500 22.1 71.8 200 3 2 9.0 4.9 32.9 91.3 -5.4 194 1.0
8250 22.7 72.9 205 3 2 8.6 4.7 32.8 91.1 -5.5 170 0.9
8000 23.3 73.9 215 4 2 8.1 4.4 32.8 91.0 -5.7 146 0.7
7750 23.7 74.7 225 5 2 5.1 2.8 32.5 90.5 -6.0 126 0.6
7500 23.9 75.0 230 5 3 1.4 0.8 32.0 89.6 -6.6 112 0.6
7250 23.9 75.0 230 6 3 -0.5 -0.3 31.3 88.3 -7.3 105 0.5
7000 23.9 75.0 230 7 3 1.7 0.9 30.6 87.0 -8.0 97 0.5
6750 24.0 75.2 230 7 3 -1.4 -0.7 29.9 85.9 -8.7 86 0.4
6500 23.6 74.5 230 7 3 -7.1 -3.9 28.8 83.9 -9.8 90 0.5
6250 23.1 73.6 235 6 3 -6.6 -3.6 27.5 81.6 -11.1 100 0.5
6000 22.5 72.5 240 6 3 -8.8 -4.8 26.3 79.3 -12.4 109 0.6
5750 21.7 71.1 230 6 3 -13.1 -7.2 24.7 76.4 -14.0 127 0.6
5500 20.6 69.1 215 4 2 -13.6 -7.5 22.9 73.3 -15.9 152 0.8
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/21/2025 at 0900 MDT | 08/21/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +11.9 LI... -2.1 | CAPE... +632.1 LI... -3.4
CINH... -320.0 K Index... +13.0 | CINH... -39.4 K Index... +13.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.6 -87.9 275 10 5 1.5 0.8 | -66.8 -88.2 260 15 8 1.3 0.7
45000 -61.1 -78.0 290 23 12 7.2 3.9 | -61.6 -78.9 280 24 12 7.3 4.0
40000 -49.7 -57.5 300 32 16 7.6 4.2 | -50.0 -58.0 300 28 14 7.6 4.2
38000 -45.2 -49.4 305 29 15 7.6 4.2 | -45.5 -49.9 300 26 14 7.6 4.2
36000 -40.6 -41.1 310 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -40.9 -41.6 300 25 13 7.7 4.2
34000 -36.0 -32.8 310 23 12 7.7 4.2 | -36.3 -33.3 300 20 10 7.7 4.2
32000 -31.4 -24.5 315 18 9 8.2 4.5 | -31.6 -24.9 300 16 8 8.5 4.6
30000 -25.9 -14.6 320 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -26.5 -15.7 305 16 8 8.5 4.7
29000 -23.4 -10.1 320 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -23.3 -9.9 310 16 8 8.5 4.6
28000 -21.4 -6.5 325 19 10 5.5 3.0 | -21.2 -6.2 315 15 8 5.6 3.1
27000 -19.8 -3.6 330 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -19.6 -3.3 320 14 7 5.5 3.0
26000 -18.2 -0.8 340 16 8 5.4 3.0 | -18.0 -0.4 325 13 7 5.5 3.0
25000 -16.6 2.1 350 16 8 5.8 3.2 | -16.3 2.7 335 12 6 5.6 3.1
24000 -14.8 5.4 355 17 9 5.8 3.2 | -14.7 5.5 350 12 6 5.6 3.1
23000 -13.1 8.4 360 18 9 5.8 3.2 | -13.0 8.6 010 14 7 5.7 3.1
22000 -11.3 11.7 360 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -11.3 11.7 015 16 8 6.9 3.8
21000 -9.4 15.1 350 20 10 6.8 3.7 | -9.3 15.3 360 18 9 6.8 3.8
20000 -7.5 18.5 345 21 11 7.0 3.8 | -7.3 18.9 350 20 10 6.9 3.8
19500 -6.5 20.3 340 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -6.3 20.7 345 22 11 7.7 4.2
19000 -5.2 22.6 340 20 10 9.2 5.1 | -5.1 22.8 345 20 10 8.5 4.7
18500 -3.8 25.2 340 18 9 9.4 5.2 | -3.9 25.0 345 19 10 8.7 4.7
18000 -2.5 27.5 345 17 9 8.7 4.8 | -2.6 27.3 345 18 9 9.4 5.2
17500 -1.2 29.8 345 17 9 8.8 4.8 | -1.3 29.7 350 17 9 9.3 5.1
17000 0.1 32.2 345 16 8 8.8 4.8 | 0.1 32.2 355 16 8 9.2 5.0
16500 1.4 34.5 350 16 8 8.7 4.8 | 1.5 34.7 355 15 8 9.0 4.9
16000 2.8 37.0 355 16 8 8.7 4.8 | 2.8 37.0 355 15 8 9.0 4.9
15500 4.1 39.4 360 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 4.2 39.6 360 14 7 8.8 4.8
15000 6.1 43.0 005 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 5.5 41.9 005 13 7 8.8 4.8
14500 7.4 45.3 005 14 7 8.9 4.9 | 7.5 45.5 010 12 6 9.2 5.0
14000 8.7 47.7 005 13 7 8.9 4.9 | 8.9 48.0 010 11 6 9.2 5.0
13500 10.1 50.2 010 12 6 9.2 5.0 | 10.3 50.5 015 11 5 8.7 4.8
13000 11.4 52.5 015 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 11.5 52.7 020 10 5 8.8 4.8
12500 12.7 54.9 025 11 5 8.3 4.5 | 12.8 55.0 020 9 5 8.5 4.7
12000 14.0 57.2 025 9 4 8.2 4.5 | 14.1 57.4 025 7 4 8.5 4.7
11500 15.3 59.5 030 7 3 8.5 4.7 | 15.4 59.7 020 6 3 8.7 4.8
11000 16.6 61.9 020 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 16.7 62.1 005 5 3 9.1 5.0
10500 17.8 64.0 355 3 2 4.6 2.5 | 17.9 64.2 345 5 2 4.4 2.4
10250 18.1 64.6 355 3 1 7.4 4.1 | 18.3 64.9 345 4 2 7.9 4.3
10000 18.9 66.0 350 2 1 11.3 6.2 | 19.1 66.4 345 4 2 11.7 6.4
9750 19.6 67.3 345 2 1 9.9 5.4 | 19.9 67.8 345 3 2 10.1 5.6
9500 20.2 68.4 340 1 1 7.4 4.1 | 20.5 68.9 345 2 1 6.4 3.5
9250 20.6 69.1 000 0 0 6.6 3.6 | 20.8 69.4 355 2 1 5.4 3.0
9000 21.2 70.2 000 0 0 9.2 5.0 | 21.3 70.3 025 1 0 8.1 4.4
8750 21.7 71.1 160 1 1 9.5 5.2 | 21.8 71.2 105 1 1 8.5 4.7
8500 22.3 72.1 160 2 1 8.1 4.5 | 22.3 72.1 125 2 1 8.5 4.7
8250 22.8 73.0 155 2 1 7.0 3.8 | 22.9 73.2 120 2 1 8.7 4.7
8000 23.3 73.9 150 2 1 9.2 5.1 | 23.4 74.1 120 3 1 8.4 4.6
7750 23.9 75.0 145 2 1 7.2 3.9 | 23.9 75.0 110 3 1 8.1 4.5
7500 24.1 75.4 155 2 1 1.2 0.6 | 24.5 76.1 100 3 1 8.4 4.6
7250 24.1 75.4 195 1 1 -0.4 -0.2 | 25.0 77.0 085 3 1 8.3 4.6
7000 24.0 75.2 240 1 1 1.7 0.9 | 25.6 78.1 070 3 2 8.6 4.7
6750 24.0 75.2 250 2 1 -2.0 -1.1 | 26.1 79.0 065 3 2 10.1 5.5
6500 23.6 74.5 255 2 1 -6.4 -3.5 | 26.9 80.4 065 3 2 10.9 6.0
6250 23.1 73.6 265 2 1 -7.0 -3.9 | 27.7 81.9 060 3 2 10.9 6.0
6000 22.7 72.9 275 2 1 -1.9 -1.1 | 28.5 83.3 060 3 2 10.4 5.7
5750 23.0 73.4 270 2 1 11.0 6.0 | 29.5 85.1 055 3 2 16.4 9.0
5500 24.1 75.4 275 2 1 16.0 8.8 | 31.1 88.0 055 3 2 28.1 15.4
08/21/2025 at 1500 MDT | 08/21/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +213.0 LI... -1.6 | CAPE... +206.0 LI... -1.2
CINH... -21.2 K Index... +22.6 | CINH... -17.2 K Index... +26.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.8 -88.2 260 19 10 1.0 0.5 | -66.4 -87.5 265 21 11 0.8 0.4
45000 -61.8 -79.2 275 27 14 7.4 4.0 | -61.7 -79.1 270 30 15 7.1 3.9
40000 -50.2 -58.4 290 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -50.4 -58.7 285 34 18 7.6 4.2
38000 -45.7 -50.3 295 28 14 7.5 4.1 | -45.9 -50.6 290 31 16 7.6 4.2
36000 -41.2 -42.2 295 27 14 7.9 4.3 | -41.3 -42.3 290 27 14 8.0 4.4
34000 -36.5 -33.7 295 23 12 7.9 4.3 | -36.4 -33.5 290 24 13 8.1 4.4
32000 -31.8 -25.2 290 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -31.6 -24.9 290 21 11 8.2 4.5
30000 -26.9 -16.4 295 17 9 8.2 4.5 | -26.3 -15.3 300 19 10 7.9 4.3
29000 -23.9 -11.0 300 17 9 8.1 4.4 | -24.0 -11.2 300 17 9 7.8 4.3
28000 -21.8 -7.2 300 16 8 5.5 3.0 | -22.0 -7.6 305 17 9 5.5 3.0
27000 -20.2 -4.4 300 15 8 5.4 3.0 | -20.4 -4.7 305 17 9 5.4 3.0
26000 -18.6 -1.5 305 14 7 5.4 3.0 | -18.8 -1.8 305 18 9 5.5 3.0
25000 -17.0 1.4 305 13 7 6.2 3.4 | -17.2 1.0 305 18 9 6.8 3.7
24000 -15.2 4.6 320 10 5 6.2 3.4 | -15.2 4.6 300 16 8 6.9 3.8
23000 -13.4 7.9 345 9 4 6.2 3.4 | -13.1 8.4 300 15 8 6.9 3.8
22000 -11.5 11.3 005 9 5 7.5 4.1 | -11.1 12.0 300 13 7 7.6 4.2
21000 -9.3 15.3 360 11 6 7.4 4.1 | -8.8 16.2 305 10 5 7.6 4.1
20000 -7.0 19.4 360 13 6 7.4 4.1 | -6.5 20.3 315 7 4 7.6 4.1
19500 -5.9 21.4 360 13 7 7.8 4.3 | -5.4 22.3 320 6 3 7.6 4.2
19000 -4.8 23.4 355 14 7 8.1 4.5 | -4.2 24.4 335 6 3 7.7 4.2
18500 -3.6 25.5 350 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -3.1 26.4 345 7 4 7.7 4.2
18000 -2.4 27.7 350 13 7 8.8 4.8 | -2.0 28.4 350 7 4 7.8 4.3
17500 -1.1 30.0 360 12 6 8.8 4.8 | -0.8 30.6 360 6 3 7.8 4.3
17000 0.1 32.2 005 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 0.3 32.5 015 5 2 8.0 4.4
16500 1.5 34.7 010 10 5 9.4 5.1 | 1.5 34.7 030 4 2 8.4 4.6
16000 2.9 37.2 010 9 5 9.4 5.1 | 2.6 36.7 050 3 1 8.4 4.6
15500 4.3 39.7 010 9 5 9.2 5.0 | 4.5 40.1 085 3 1 9.0 4.9
15000 5.6 42.1 015 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 5.7 42.3 100 3 2 9.1 5.0
14500 7.6 45.7 030 7 4 8.4 4.6 | 7.0 44.6 100 4 2 9.3 5.1
14000 8.9 48.0 040 6 3 8.3 4.6 | 8.3 46.9 100 4 2 9.2 5.1
13500 10.1 50.2 050 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 9.7 49.5 100 5 2 9.7 5.3
13000 11.4 52.5 060 5 3 9.1 5.0 | 11.1 52.0 095 5 3 9.7 5.3
12500 12.7 54.9 065 5 3 9.0 5.0 | 12.5 54.5 095 5 3 9.7 5.3
12000 14.0 57.2 065 5 2 9.0 5.0 | 14.0 57.2 095 5 3 9.7 5.3
11500 15.3 59.5 060 5 2 9.5 5.2 | 15.4 59.7 090 5 3 9.6 5.3
11000 16.7 62.1 060 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 16.8 62.2 090 5 3 9.7 5.3
10500 17.8 64.0 060 4 2 5.5 3.0 | 18.0 64.4 085 5 3 5.0 2.7
10250 18.3 64.9 060 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 18.4 65.1 085 5 3 8.2 4.5
10000 19.2 66.6 060 4 2 12.8 7.0 | 19.3 66.7 085 5 3 12.4 6.8
9750 20.1 68.2 060 4 2 11.7 6.4 | 20.2 68.4 080 5 3 11.4 6.2
9500 20.9 69.6 060 4 2 9.0 4.9 | 21.0 69.8 080 5 3 10.0 5.5
9250 21.5 70.7 055 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 21.7 71.1 075 5 3 9.2 5.1
9000 22.3 72.1 055 4 2 11.2 6.2 | 22.4 72.3 070 5 2 10.3 5.7
8750 23.1 73.6 055 4 2 11.0 6.1 | 23.2 73.8 065 5 2 10.2 5.6
8500 23.9 75.0 055 4 2 10.5 5.8 | 23.9 75.0 065 5 2 10.2 5.6
8250 24.7 76.5 055 4 2 10.2 5.6 | 24.7 76.5 060 4 2 10.3 5.6
8000 25.4 77.7 055 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 25.5 77.9 050 4 2 9.7 5.3
7750 26.2 79.2 055 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 26.1 79.0 050 4 2 9.4 5.2
7500 26.9 80.4 050 4 2 10.1 5.5 | 26.8 80.2 045 4 2 10.0 5.5
7250 27.7 81.9 050 4 2 10.3 5.7 | 27.6 81.7 040 4 2 10.2 5.6
7000 28.4 83.1 050 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 28.4 83.1 040 4 2 10.0 5.5
6750 29.1 84.4 050 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 29.1 84.4 035 4 2 10.0 5.5
6500 29.9 85.8 050 4 2 11.1 6.1 | 29.9 85.8 030 4 2 10.2 5.6
6250 30.7 87.3 050 4 2 11.7 6.4 | 30.7 87.3 030 4 2 10.8 6.0
6000 31.6 88.9 045 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 31.4 88.5 030 4 2 8.6 4.7
5750 32.4 90.3 050 4 2 15.3 8.4 | 32.0 89.6 025 4 2 10.8 5.9
5500 34.1 93.4 045 4 2 30.7 16.8 | 33.2 91.8 030 4 2 21.2 11.6
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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