Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
343
FNUS75 KBOU 291133
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Harris Park RX...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
533 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry weather is expected through the coming week.
There will be a weak cold front that will likely provide upslope winds
and decrease mixing by late Monday afternoon. Tuesday looks dry and only
slightly cooler with a bit more wind aloft, then winds will likely
be a bit stronger at the surface on Wednesday.
It currently looks like transport winds will be about 10 mph on
Monday, then 15-20 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday. Smoke dispersal
should be good each afternoon, and very good on Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons with a few more hours of good dispersal in the late mornings
those two days. There chance of stronger west winds Tuesday is looking lower,
now about a 10% chance of having near critical fire weather conditions with
peak gusts of 25-30 mph. More likely winds will be around 10 mph with gusts
under 20 mph. There is still a 20% chance of winds becoming east or northeast
late in the day Tuesday, after 1500, as upslope winds are expected to
develop by late afternoon in the lower foothills but likely not reach
the burn site. If this happens, it could reduce smoke dispersal, but it
would likely stay at least fair through 1700.
Winds will likely be a little stronger on Wednesday, but the chance of
gusts over 20 mph is about 30%, and the chance of gusts over 30 mph is
less than 10%. Warm and dry conditions will continue through at
least Saturday, but winds are not expected to be any stronger.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) until 1200, then partly
cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1300, then mostly
cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph until 1200, then
variable up to 5 mph until 1500, then northeast
5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then rising to 6000 ft AGL
by 1000 and 9000 ft AGL by 1200.
Transport winds.....West 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1 4 1 0 2 9 40 57 62 65 68 61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............47 50 55 60 65 69 72 73 73 72 71 69
RH..............53 48 41 37 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 23
20 FT wind dir..W NW W NW NW W W NW NE NE NE E
20 FT wind spd..8 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.13 13 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.1 8.6 9.4 9.6 9.0 7.6 6.0 4.2
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW W W NW N NW
Transp wind spd.13 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 6 5 13 43 51 57 57 54 46 42 30
SmokeDispersion.P P P P F F F F F F F P
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 0400, then
clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 1900, then west 5 to
12 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL until 1900, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........48 44 32 24 22 15 17 10 8 6 5 5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............67 63 58 55 52 51 51 51 51 49 48 46
RH..............26 31 37 38 43 42 42 42 42 44 46 49
20 FT wind dir..NE W W W W W NW NW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..2 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8
20 FT wind gust.3 13 15 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W N W W W W W W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 8 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 16
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P P P P P P P
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) until 1300, then
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1500, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph until 1000, then northwest
6-12 mph until 1500, then northeast 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800, then rising to
4000 ft AGL by 1000 and 8000 ft AGL by 1200.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph until 1400, then north
around 8 mph until 1600, then northeast 8 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1400, then
fair.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14 13 13 11 13 18 21 35 40 54 59 60
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............46 48 50 54 60 66 71 72 71 69 67 64
RH..............49 47 48 41 32 25 20 19 20 22 24 28
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W NW NW N N NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.16 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 4.0 6.8 9.6 8.9 7.7 6.2 6.1 4.1
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N NE NE
Transp wind spd.17 16 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 7 8 8
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 11 12 13 40 61 77 71 62 43 49 33
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P G G G F F F P
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds 4-8 mph becoming northwest 5-10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds 6-12 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds 5-10 mph.
$$
Forecaster...Gimmestad
Requested by...James Pilsmaker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423025.4/BOU
.DELDT 09/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL james.pilsmaker@usda.gov