968
FXUS65 KBOU 061126
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
526 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and mostly dry today through Friday, with above normal
  temperatures expected from Tuesday onward.

- Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
  possible Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The trough to our south will continue to move eastward today,
resulting in northerly flow aloft across Colorado. Despite the
northerly flow, there is quite a bit of warm advection, especially
at 700 mb where temperatures there should warm 5 degC by sunset,
up to -1 degC. The air from the north remains pretty dry with 15
degC dewpoint depressions aloft (27 degF) and 40-45 degF at the
surface across the plains. Thus, even though a few high res models
(notably the NAMnest) generate light snow across the Front and
Park Ranges later this afternoon, we do not think that is going to
happen. The entire area should be dry with ample sunshine. The
warming aloft will translate into highs mostly in the upper 50s
across the plains, but lower elevations along the South Platte
Valley north and east of Denver likely reaching the low 60s. The
mountain valleys/foothills will likewise be quite a bit warmer
today with highs in the mid 40s.

Another seasonably cool night is on tap tonight into Monday
morning with light winds and partly to mostly clear skies. Expect
lows in the 20s across the cold spots of the plains, and 30s for
the urban corridor and banana belt along the terrain gradient.
Mountain valleys will be seasonably cold with lows in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Zonal flow aloft will be over the area Mon and Tue. Temps will
continue to warm, with readings rising into the lower to mid 70`s,
on the plains.  There is quite a bit of mid level moisture embedded
in the flow on Tue which may lead to an increase in mid level cloud
cover.

For Tue night into Wed, the flow aloft will become more WNW.  Cross-
sections show a period of deeper moisture in the nrn mtns late Tue
thru Wed morning.  As a result, this may lead to a chc of snow
showers.  Across the plains, it will be dry.  Both the ECMWF and GFS
show a weak front may affect the plains by aftn.  Thus this may lead
to slightly cooler temps with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70`s.

By Wed night into Thu, the flow aloft will become more NWLY.  Both
models show another front affecting the area, with highs dropping
into the lower to mid 60`s, over nern CO. Cross-sections show
only limited moisture embedded in the flow so no precip is
expected.

Looking ahead to Fri and Sat, an upper level ridge will build into
the area.  This will lead to dry conditions with warmer
temperatures. Highs will rise back into the 70`s, on Friday, over
the plains with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 526 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR through Monday. In general we do not expect any winds above 15
kts throughout the period. Later this morning the terminals are
expected to go to light and variable winds from 14-17Z before
becoming steady out of the north. They should shift to NE 10-15
kts around 22Z, and stay that way into the evening.

Later this evening (after 02 or 03Z) there will again be a few
hour period of variable winds before settling on SW winds at the
terminals after 05Z (W at BJC). The pressure gradient relaxes
Monday compared to today so winds are expected to be light all day
long. Light and variable 14-18Z should transition to NE then E at
under 10 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Schlatter