358
FXUS65 KBOU 272316
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
516 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues into Friday. A few gusty showers this
  afternoon and evening.

- Weather pattern change begins late Friday with rain and
  mountain snow (8000-9000 feet MSL and above) spreading across
  the area.

- Additional rain and mountain snow showers this weekend,
  possibly mixed with snow, across the lower elevations late
  Saturday into Sunday.

- Cooler, unsettled pattern looks to continue next week, with
  lower than normal confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Satellite imagery across the region shows that the persist high
cloud deck has gradually eroded over the past couple of hours.
Where skies have cleared, the higher cloud cover has quickly been
replaced by a shallow cu field, with a few weak showers already
noted across the high country. There`s still a little uncertainty
in the temperature forecast across the metro. Assuming we continue
to clear out, we may be able to squeeze out an 80F high today
(current high at DEN is 76F so far) during the mid/late afternoon.
A few of those gusty showers in the high country should spread
into the urban corridor during the afternoon, assuming sufficient
heating/destabilization can occur.

Tomorrow should be warm again as the upper ridge is replaced by a
gradually strengthening southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next
trough. We`ll once again fight increasing cloud cover across the
region, and as a result temperatures will likely end up a few
degrees cooler - generally the mid 70s - across the plains. A few
snow showers may develop across the high country, but the bigger
changes to the pattern come Friday night into this weekend... see
more below.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Weather pattern begins to shift away from the warm and dry
conditions and towards a cooler and unsettled pattern this
weekend. The change begins Friday night as a shortwave trough
embedded in the west-southwest flow aloft tracks across the
region. Rain and snow begins in the mountains late Friday
afternoon. Rain spreads east onto the foothills and plains Friday
night. Given its current expected track, heaviest rainfall amounts
are expected across northern Colorado where a half inch of rain
will be possible Friday night and Saturday morning.

At the surface, we see a low form over southeast Colorado Friday
evening. Winds become northerly Friday night in response to the
deepening low pressure, but we don`t see a well defined cold
front. Temperatures will be cooler but there`s not enough cold air
for any snow across the plains. Snow level with this first wave
looks to only fall to 8000-9000 feet late Friday night and early
Saturday morning. Rain showers linger into Saturday morning,
especially over the northeast plains. Expect to see a break in the
precipitation Saturday late morning/afternoon. As far as
temperatures go, if the area remains clouded in, highs likely stay
in the 50s. If we see some breaks in the clouds, temperatures
should be able to reach the lower to mid 60s.

Rain and mountain snow returns mid to late Saturday afternoon as
the next wave enters the region. This system will be slightly
stronger. Rain travels eastward across the foothills and plains
Saturday night and wraps up Sunday morning over the northeast
plains. Snow level falls to 6000-8000 feet in the foothills
Saturday night. Colder also spills into the area from the
northeast. It may get cold enough over the eastern plains Sunday
morning for light snowfall before this system exits the region.
The GFS and ECMWF pick up on another weak wave late Sunday which
brings another round of mountain snow with rain/snow showers east
of the mountains late Sunday into early Monday. The weather will
be mainly dry Monday under a westerly flow aloft. High
temperatures return to the lower to mid 60s over northeast
Colorado.

For Tuesday through Thursday, there is plenty of uncertainty with
models still trying to figure out the overall pattern across the
Central Rockies. The GEFS favors a more zonal pattern with warmer
and drier conditions across the region. The ECMWF and Canadian
models favor a troughiness pattern with cooler and unsettled
weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Some virga is over the area with a few sensors having brief gusts
from 35 to 40 mph. This activity should end by 01z. Winds will
generally be SW and then transition to SSW by 02z.  On Fri winds
will become SW by 14z and then more NW by 18z. By 21z winds will
switch to NE. May see some virga develop by 21z with brief gusty
winds possible.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...RPK