442
FXUS65 KBOU 071145
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
545 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers likely with scattered thunderstorms mainly over the
  eastern half of the plains through mid/late evening.

- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms.

- Sunday into next week, near normal temperatures with chances for
  showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Shortwave trough will continue to trigger numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There`s ample shear and moisture to
support strong to severe thunderstorms. The biggest question mark
is instability. Morning showers and cloud cover has kept northern
parts of the Front Range and the plains east of them cool with
noon temperatures only in the 50s. Best chance for severe
thunderstorms will be where it warmed into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Looking at satellite and observations, this roughly just east
of the Denver area and south of I-70. Primary threat will be
large hail, up to 2 inches in diameter, at first. As storms
increase, a cluster or two could produce damaging winds to 70 mph.
An isolated tornado is possible, mainly along a boundary across
Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties. Showers and storms are
expected to be east of the Denver area by 8PM and east of the
forecast area by midnight. Skies clear overnight which could lead
to patchy fog in low lying areas.

Drier subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail over the area
Saturday. Other than patchy morning fog in the South Platte River
Valley north of Denver, skies will be mostly sunny to start the
day. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid
80s across northeast Colorado. High-based cumulus clouds are
expected to form during the afternoon hours and could produce a
few isolated dry microbursts with winds to 30 mph.

A weak push from the north Saturday night will help to increase
low level moisture over northeast Colorado and bring cooler
temperatures for Sunday. Highs for Sunday look to reach the lower
to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. The increase in moisture
will also help fuel isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

For Monday, an upper level ridge will reside over the Great Basin
with weak north-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. This ridge
slides over the Central Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly
warm up Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching the lower to mid
80s Tuesday. The latest model trends keep most/all of the showers
and thunderstorms over the central and southwest Colorado
mountains. With ridging overhead and weak flow aloft, little to no
forcing is expected. This seems reasonable, and will be lowering
PoPs and keeping the low PoPs confined to over/near the higher
terrain.

For Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east
of the region and is replaced with a west-southwest flow aloft.
We`ll likely see a return to isolated/scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms under this pattern, most
numerous over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be near normal
to slightly above with highs reaching the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period. After light and variable
winds this morning, northwest winds will develop this afternoon
between 19-21Z. Some gusts could reach 22 knots at all terminals.
Winds will become light in the evening and trend towards
drainage. A cold front will move through between 08-12Z Saturday
night. This will shift winds to the NNE with gusts up to 25 knots.
Behind this front, there will likely be stratus clouds that
develop given the upslope flow. The ceilings will most likely be
between 2,000-3,000 feet with the clouds lasting for 3-5 hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Danielson