494
FXUS65 KBOU 011727
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1127 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record breaking high temperatures possible Wednesday and
  Saturday.

- Widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
  most days this upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

It was a chilly morning across the area with lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s over northeast Colorado. Many locations saw their
coolest temperature of the season. Still looking at temperatures
at or slightly above normal today, with highs in the 70s over
northeast Colorado. Gusty south winds up to 35 mph to prevail
over the plains. Relative humidities are expected to mainly stay
above the 15 percent criteria for a Red Flag Warning. Going
forecast is on track with only minor changes to line up with the
current weather trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A little wind and a little cloud cover has kept us from any
freezing temperatures over the northern plains this morning. A
period of light southeast winds the last couple hours did bring
some cooler air over DIA and the temperature just dropped into the
30s there.

Not much change to the forecast today. There is a bit more jet
related high cloudiness right now. It looks like this should
diminish but we did bump up the cloud cover a bit this morning.
There is also a patch of elevated smoke in the models from
yesterday`s burning of the fire east of Salt Lake City. It looks
like this should just drift over early this morning and be past.
It`s not much but might be noticeable.

Warming aloft has begun, but the low levels will lag behind today.
The previous forecast looks good with mostly 70s on the plains. We
did lower tonight`s lows as light winds and mostly clear skies
should allow good cooling in most areas.

See below for fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Upper ridging and weak flow aloft will continue over the CWA
Wednesday through Thursday night. In fact, this pattern will
continue for the later days; Friday through next Monday as the
weather producing systems stay well to our north. The QG Omega
fields indicated no, to very weak, synoptic scale energy for the
forecast area through at least Monday of next week as well.

In the lower levels, lee troughing will dominate Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with a weak cold and upslope flow to move into the
plains and foothills Thursday morning. Another weak, dry cold
front is expected Saturday night.

Moisture availability also remains quite limited for the next week
as the precipitable water proggs show a range of 0.20 to 0.50 inch
over Colorado.  There is little to no CAPE progged for our area
Wednesday through next Monday as well. Very low instability along
with no pops and clear to mostly clear skies will be the rule for
several days.

For temperatures, Wednesday highs will be well above seasonal
normals with record high values, at some locations, a good bet.  If
DIA reaches 90 F on Wednesday, it would be the latest date in the
year, October 2nd, with a 90 degree reading ever in Denver since
records started in 1872. Thickness fields for the rest of the
week through the weekend into next Monday continue to show
temperatures to be above seasonal normals, with more record heat
possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through Wednesday under clear to mostly
clear skies. Wind direction forecast will be tricky at times.
Gusty south winds over the plains east of Denver produces a
cyclone after 18Z today. Winds are expected to continue to be
variable as the cyclone forms. Eventually expect a northeast to
develop by 21Z. Once the sunsets, southerly drainage winds return
01-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

We cancelled the Fire Weather Watch for east central Colorado. It
will become breezy with humidities in the 15-20% range this
afternoon, but it doesn`t look like it will meet warning criteria.
The northern mountain areas may also be marginal, but the odds are
better there and it could be getting fairly windy in the mid to
late afternoon along the Wyoming border. We changed to a Red Flag
Warning for North Park and the mountains west of there. The
mountains further east are in the gradient where some places might
meet criteria but the stronger winds will mostly be in the higher
mountains and not the forested areas.

With the dry airmass expected over the forecast area for the
next week along with above normal temperatures, the humidity levels
will drop in the teens for most of the CWA during the afternoon
hours each day.  In fact, on Wednesday and Saturday, the warmest
days, humidity levels will drop in the single digits during a few
hours in the afternoons. The wind speeds look to be high enough
on Wednesday afternoon for critical fire weather conditions over
the northwestern CWA so went with a Fire Weather Watch from
17Z-01Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ211-217.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for COZ211-215-217-218.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM.....Gimmestad
LONG TERM......RJK
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad/RJK