Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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028 FXUS65 KBOU 300619 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1219 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry for the foreseeable future with very limited chances of precipitation. - Front to bring slightly cooler conditions Monday into Tuesday. - Periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 The alpine convective cloudiness continues to decrease this evening. There is isolated convection over the west slope still. Temperatures are in the mid and upper 60s F over the plains. There are fairly decent drainage winds going over the plains as well. Will make a few minor grid adjustments to winds, sky and temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Days like today go to show why the weather enterprise favors meteorological seasons as opposed to astronomical ones - another summerlike day across the board, with the thermometer climbing into the low 90`s across part of the Denver metro and plains. As of 130 PM, Denver had reached 91F, just one degree shy of the daily record. Our morning low temperature of 61F may also tie the daily record for highest minimum temperature, assuming we don`t drop below that by midnight (unlikely). As expected, scattered cumulus is dotting the higher terrain, with localized virga apparent on radar and webcams mainly encircling Park and Clear Creek Counties. Measurable precipitation is not anticipated given the very dry low levels. A modest cold front remains on tap for tomorrow, descending north to south after sunrise and reaching the Denver metro shortly before noon based on model consensus. It will be just early enough to prevent another unseasonably warm day, with highs in the 70`s for the mountain valleys and northern plains, and low 80`s for the southern plains and urban corridor owing to the front`s later arrival. Breezy north/northeast winds will follow the frontal passage with gusts 20-30 mph. Speeds should relax slightly later in the day when humidity is lowest, thus limiting the fire danger severity, but elevated fire weather conditions will be in place nonetheless. There`s a slim (15%) chance of squeezing out a light sprinkle in the southern foothills/mountains, but most areas will remain mostly sunny. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Monday night and Tuesday, an upper level trough of low pressure will be over the Upper Midwest with upper level high pressure stretching from off the California coast into Texas. Colorado will be in between these systems under the influence of a dry west-northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern will dominate the forecast area through Thursday with a large upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region by late in the work week. These two weather patterns should result in unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather across North Central and Northeastern Colorado through the forecast period. Occasional upper level shortwaves moving across the Northern Rockies may push a couple of dry cold fronts across Northeastern Colorado. These fronts should lower temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees Thursday, Friday and again on Sunday. Despite the cool down, max temperatures are expected to be 8 to 18 degrees above normal through this period with max temperatures approaching record values on some days. Wednesday and Saturday look to be the warmest days of the week due to some downsloping flow and prefrontal warming. Max temperatures are forecasted to climb into the upper 80s both days with the potential for some new max temperature records to be set. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1217 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR through Monday. A cold front will move through the Denver area around 16z-17z with northeast winds gusting to 25 knots behind it through 20-22z, then more easterly winds at 10-15 knots through early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Widespread elevated to locally near-critical fire weather conditions expected Monday as a cold front brings a surge of breezier north/northeast winds, which will produce gusts 20-30 mph. Winds in most areas will likely peak before early afternoon and thus not coincident with the lowest humidity (13-19%), limiting the severity of fire weather concerns compared to future days. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across North Park and Park Range Tuesday afternoon and evening due to very low relative humidity (11-15%) and gusty westerly winds to 28 mph. Therefore, have issued a fire weather watch from Noon to 7 pm Tuesday for zones 211 and 217. On Wednesday the westerly winds are expected to increase somewhat across the high country and spread eastward into the Cheyenne Ridge with continued very low relative humidity. As a result, the fire weather threat may worsen and expand across the high country in areas below 9000 feet and east across the Cheyenne Ridge. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday and Friday due to higher humidity and lighter winds. Fire weather concerns may return by Saturday due to strengthening westerly winds and lowering humidity. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ211-217. && $$ UPDATE.........RJK SHORT TERM.....Rodriguez LONG TERM......JK AVIATION...Gimmestad FIRE WEATHER...Rodriguez/JK