208
FXUS65 KBOU 041015
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
415 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog early this morning, especially east of Fort Morgan
  and Limon. Patchy drizzle with temperatures mostly above
  freezing.

- Snow showers will develop by midday, continuing through much of
  tonight. Generally light snow accumulations with little or no
  accumulation below 6000 feet. Heavier amounts possible in the
  foothills west and southwest of Denver, but limited impacts.

- Warmer and drier next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As expected, we`re sitting in rich moisture, but there`s not
really any forcing for precipitation right now. Winds are light
and the existing cloud deck has been pretty steady state
overnight. There is some fog in the northeast corner where dew
points are a little higher. There`s likely some patchy dense fog
on ridges/upslope areas and drizzle as well. Temperatures are
mostly above freezing and surfaces should still be warm enough to
prevent icing in most spots.

The main thing happening today is accelerating north winds as high
pressure builds into the northern plains and low pressure moves
south of Colorado. This will produce some low level convergence,
especially against the foothills west and southwest of Denver and
the Palmer Divide. There will also be some QG lift that should
redevelop the clouds above the surface moisture, and help produce
light rain or snow in the boundary layer. However, the QG forcing
is weak and the moisture above the ground is looking less and
less, so this may wind up being mainly a boundary layer event.
That could reduce or eliminate the precipitation away from the
terrain. We still think there`s a pretty good chance of at least a
little precipitation across the area, but we nudged PoPs down a
little and our forecast QPF is pretty light except for the
upslope areas. Temperatures also look slightly warmer than
previously forecast, though they won`t rise much during the day.
Still probably mostly snow for Denver, but another degree or two
will further reduce the chance of accumulation. Once again, the
overlap between the waning lift and a little cooling in the
evening will give the best chance for any accumulation east of the
mountains. There could still be some impacts in the foothills
which could have steady light to moderate snow for a while, and
maybe also south of Castle Rock with the colder temperatures and
steady upslope.

Even if we don`t wind up having much precipitation, it will be a
cold and windy day to be outside, with afternoon temperatures in
the 30s and 15 to 30 mph winds in Denver producing wind chills
in the 20s. A few raindrops of snowflakes in the air will add to
the cold!

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

On Sat, some lingering light snow may occur thru mid morning mainly
in the mountains south of I-70 and over the Palmer Divide.  By aftn,
there will still be some lingering moisture in the mtns which will
lead to a chc of light snow showers.  Across the plains, it will be
dry.  Temps will remain below normal with highs in the 40`s across
nern CO.

For Sunday, dry northerly flow aloft will be over the area.
Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal levels across nern CO.
Looking ahead to Mon thru Wed, a flat upper level ridge will be
over the area with mainly zonal flow aloft. Cross-sections don`t
show much moisture embedded in the flow so will keep things mainly
dry. As far as temps, should see a gradual warming trend as
downslope flow develops. Highs across the plains will be in the
60`s on Mon with lower to mid 70`s for Tue and Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Fog and low clouds will persist in the Denver area this morning.
IFR conditions will prevail, but there will be areas of LIFR
ceilings. Thicker fog with visibilities below a mile now looks
unlikely. A cold front will pass between 15z and 17z with north
winds gusting to around 25 knots. This will likely (70%) break up
the low clouds with MVFR conditions prevailing behind the front.
Snow will redevelop though, with areas of IFR conditions again
after 19z. Snow accumulations in the Denver area are expected to
be an inch or less and mainly on grassy areas.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Gimmestad