


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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462 FXUS65 KBOU 120759 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 159 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be expected this afternoon roughly along and south of I-70. - Afternoon showers/thunderstorms to continue most days, albeit with slightly lesser coverage Sunday and Monday. - High temperatures to linger in the 90s across the plains from Sunday through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 259 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Current satellite and radar imagery shows storms have already developed along the higher terrain this afternoon. So far, the burn scars have not been impacted by heavy rainfall, however, with fairly deep and moist upslope flow in place behind this morning`s cold front, and a shortwave trough approaching from the west, there is still a limited threat that some heavier localized rainfall may lead to some flash flood concerns for the northern most burn scars through the afternoon today. As the afternoon/evening progresses, storms are expected to become efficient rain and wind makers as they make their way across the northern plains where PWAT values of 1-1.5" are expected. The latest HREF shows a few bullseye of 2 to 4" of rainfall accumulations from northeastern Weld County to the KS border, with the heaviest rainfall expected between 9PM and midnight tonight, generally along and north of US-34. With the potential for excessive rainfall leading to flooding concerns tonight (Friday), we have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for northeast Weld County, as well as Morgan, Washington, Sedgwick, and Phillips County from 6 PM this evening into Saturday morning. For those of you expected to be out and about in these locations tonight and early tomorrow morning, be sure to have ways to monitor road conditions as some more flood prone roadways and low laying areas may be unaccessible due to flooding. The SPC has upgraded their Slight Risk for severe storms to include portions of the urban corridor this afternoon and evening, with potential for large hail and strong outflow winds the main hazards. With the greatest moisture and shear profiles expected to be over the northeastern portion of the plains, we are thinking the main threat for more organized convection will remain more towards the northeast corner. For tonight, showers and storms are expected to clear from west to east across the forecast area, with some showers lingering into early morning and near normal temperatures expected across the forecast area. Northwest flow aloft will be in place on Saturday as upper-level ridging begins to build over the southwest. Scattered afternoon diurnal showers and storms are expected to develop, mainly over Park County and the Palmer Divide, with a slight chance a few spill onto the adjacent plains. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Friday. Not many adjustments were made to the forecast past the short-term as the NBM looks reasonable with afternoon convection developing over the higher terrain each afternoon. Temperatures are expected to gradually increase through the weekend and linger in the 90s for the first half of the week across the lower elevations. A brief reprieve from the 90s looks to be on track by mid-week, before 90s return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Lingering NE and E winds will gradually give way to light southeasterly drainage flow through the early AM. Low clouds with bases 005-015 will be relatively persistent overnight across the Denver metro, with the lowest bases <010 oscillating between SCT and BKN. Minor vis restrictions of 5-6SM in BR will be possible at times. Expect clearing south to north between 15-18Z Sat. Best chances for any afternoon convection will be focused from Denver southward, hence PROB30 group for KAPA but none for KDEN or KBJC. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bonner AVIATION...Rodriguez