723
FXUS65 KBOU 101110
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
510 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm today and then again Saturday, some cooling
  Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across the
  eastern plains on Saturday due to warm, dry, and windy
  conditions.

- Patchy frost will be possible early next week across the far
  northeast plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The upper level ridge that has dominated the weather over the
western CONUS so far this month will amplify a bit across Colorado
today. This will bring another unseasonably warm day with less
convective cloudiness compared to the last two days. High
temperatures as a result should bump up a couple degrees, with mid
to upper 80s across the plains, 70s in the foothills and mountain
valleys, and 50s and 60s higher mountains. Forecaster takes a look
at calendar, and yes, it`s indeed October 10th. That said, we
still should be shy of most records, including Denver`s which
stands at 89F set in 1910.

Tonight will feature increasing high clouds and relatively mild
temperatures. A cold front pushes south across the Wyoming border
late tonight and approaches Denver by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

A cold front will move through the eastern plains early Friday
morning with the front passing through Denver close to sunrise.
There will be northerly to northeasterly winds that persist
throughout the day as a surface high pressure system moves into
the Northern Plains. High temperatures will top out in the low-mid
70s across the urban corridor and plains and with ample sunshine,
it will be a gorgeous day.

A weak low pressure system will move across northeast Colorado on
Saturday as ridging remains in place overhead. This system will
shift low level winds to the west which will help to increase the
downslope component. Highs will warm well above normal with a few
spots across the plains seeing the mid 80s. There is uncertainty
with regards to the wind forecast. Recent guidance weakened the
wind speeds across the plains as gust speeds stay below 25 mph. If
this trend continues, there won`t be a need to issue any fire
weather related highlights. With that being said, the relative
humidity will drop to around 10 percent across the plains with
some breezy conditions so widespread elevated fire weather
conditions seem likely.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system
will move through our forecast area Saturday night. Sunday will be
cooler as a result and southeast winds will develop between a high
pressure center over the Northern Plains and a surface low over
western Colorado.

The wave of model guidance that came in last night that showed much
cooler conditions for Monday and into Tuesday was very short-lived.
The majority of ensemble members keep a trough over the Great
Lakes well to the east of our forecast area. It can`t be ruled out
that a shortwave trough retrogrades and moves close to Colorado
but it now appears this system will be more progressive. Some
patchy frost could occur over the far northeast corner of Colorado
but most areas will see low temperatures stay above 36 F.

A ridge appears it will strengthen over the Intermountain West on
Wednesday and Thursday which may allow temperatures across the
plains to approach the 80s again. There is finally a decent signal
in the long range ensembles for precipitation in our area. The
following weekend, October 19-20, a trough will move over the
western US and will bring moisture and lift. About 50 percent of
ensembles have precipitation in Denver but there is still plenty of
time for this to dissolve in the models and for the drought to
continue in Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

No aviation impacts with VFR conditions and light/normal diurnal
wind patterns. A weak front is expected to arrive 12Z-15Z Friday
with a light northerly shift.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Barjenbruch