260
FXUS65 KBOU 101745
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds are expected again along the Front Range mountains
  and foothills from midday today through midday Thursday. Gusts
  will be between 70-80 mph.

- An extended period of dry and mild weather will last through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 342 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The decision was made to issue a High Wind Warning for the Front
Range mountains and northern foothills. While this event won`t
pack the same punch as the one yesterday, it will still have
warning criteria winds with gusts up to 80 mph expected. Cross
sections between 18Z today and 03Z this evening were the primary
concern as models have trended towards a slightly stronger stable
layer around ridgetop as well as a better mean state critical
layer. In addition, high resolution model guidance has
consistently been forecasting gusts between 75-85 mph. It seemed
harder to justify not issuing a warning when those last two
factors mentioned were in place. Therefore, the warning was issued
from 11 AM today through 11 AM Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 237 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Downslope winds have peaked across the Front Range, after a very
windy morning which saw widespread gusts 70-95 mph across the
foothills and leeward Front Range mountains. Breezy conditions
will still persist well through the afternoon and evening
however, with localized wind-prone spots still carrying potential
to reach high wind criteria for a few more hours. Will thus
continue the current suite of headlines, although these may be
able to be dropped early as the strongest winds recede back into
the high country.

Tonight, a backdoor cold front will bring a shift to lighter
northeast flow to the plains, and a few low clouds to the lower
elevations as well into early Wednesday morning. Moisture looks
much too shallow to support any meaningful precipitation chances
for the lower elevations. That`s not the case for our northern
mountains, where we`ll see a reinforcement of moisture and
westerly flow aloft. As such, snow showers should first develop
late this evening, increasing overnight into Wednesday morning,
and tapering off rather quickly in the evening. Accumulations will
be focused over the Park and Medicine Bow Ranges with 1-5" mainly
above 10,000 ft. Slick conditions can be expected at times over
Rabbit Ears and Cameron Passes, with a much lower probability of
any impacts to passes closer to the I-70 corridor.

Ridgetop winds will remain quite robust during daytime hours
Wednesday, so higher elevations will continue to see gusts 45-65
mph with patchy blowing snow, but these shouldn`t extend much
beyond those most susceptible leeward slopes.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 237 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wind speeds may pick up again over the high country Wednesday
evening and continue overnight and possibly into Thursday morning.
However, confidence is decreasing in a widespread high wind event
across the Front Range mountains. Looking at upper level flow, we
are progged to generally be in the right exit region of the jet
stream Wednesday night, with cross-barrier flow of 40-50 kts. There
is good agreement between models of decent QG fields across the
northeastern part of the state, promoting subsidence aloft. But,
recent model runs show that flow aloft has turned more northwest and
decreased slightly. In addition, forecasted surface pressure
gradients between Grand Junction and Denver have decreased to 10-
13mb. With cross-sections and modeled soundings indicating a weak
stable layer and some shear at higher levels, the high country
likely would only see brief and localized wind gusts between 70-80
mph, with the wind-prone areas across the foothills and adjacent
plains seeing gusts up to 45 mph. For that reason, have opted out
for a High Wind Watch for now, but will continue to monitor for any
changes.

West/northwesterly winds will gradually decrease during the day on
Thursday. With compressional heating, daytime temperatures could be
10-20 degrees above normal across the plains. Exactly how warm we
will get will depend on the strength and duration of the downsloping
winds. Generally expect widespread temperatures in the mid 60s, with
the possibility of high 60s/low 70s across the eastern plains.

Thursday and into the weekend, we will see a drying trends across
our forecast area as an upper level ridge continues to build over
the southwestern United States. An arctic airmass will dip into
the eastern part of our country on Friday, which will likely
bring temperatures back to seasonal normals for our eastern
plains. However, ensemble solutions still indicate that the areas
closer to the foothills will reach up to the high 50s. For the
weekend, temperatures will stay above normal as the upper level
ridge shifts over Colorado.

Ensemble guidance has continued to show a weak shortwave traversing
the region at the beginning of next week. Without much forcing
associated with this disturbance, only light orographic snow showers
are expected for the high country at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1036 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds should stay below 15
kts for the next couple of hours before stronger westerly winds
mix down to the surface for all terminals. BJC will likely gust up
to 40 kts throughout the day, however there is a chance that the
stronger winds stay just west of the airport. If the mountain wave
stays west of BJC, westerly winds may stay under 20 kts. For DEN
and APA, gusts up to 30 kts are possible this afternoon, so have
introduced a TEMPO from 20Z to 23Z. This evening, westerly winds
should weaken and stay generally under 20 kts, with occasional
gusts up to 25 kts at times.

Tomorrow, westerly winds will dominate all TAF sites again. There
is higher confidence of prevailing gusts up to 35 kts for all TAF
sites, before weakening in the late afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ033>035.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...BRQ
LONG TERM...MAI
AVIATION...MAI