070
FXUS65 KBOU 142344
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
544 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday into Thursday across the
  mountains and plains. Light snow for the mountains, isolated
  strong to severe thunderstorms for the plains.

- Cooling overnight low temperatures to start bringing frost to
  portions of the plains overnight Thursday, with freezing
  temperatures expected by Saturday night/Sunday morning east of
  the urban corridor.

- Turning warmer and drier again by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Satellite imagery shows drier air has moved into the forecast area
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond have pushed to the
northeast. Also visible on satellite is an upper level low currently
spinning over western California. Ensembles are in wide agreement
that this low will move across the Great Basin through the day
tomorrow before ejecting to the northeast across the northern
Rockies Thursday. Additionally, it looks like a piece of energy
associated with this system will break apart and move across
Arizona and New Mexico. This will put our forecast area right
between the two areas of maximized lift, keeping the strongest
forcings to the north and south.

Before discussing the above impacts, let`s first talk about the
rest of today. The drier air has allowed for skies to see
significant clearing through the late morning. Surface heating
and downsloping southerly winds off the Palmer Divide have allowed
for temperatures to climb to the mid to upper 70s, generally for
areas along and south of I-76. Clouds are expected to continue to
clear through the afternoon and we should see a few degrees more
of warming before the quickly diminishing sun angle forces them to
a halt. Aside from the pesky DCVZ in place over the Denver TAF
sites making for a difficult wind forecast, the rest of today
should be quiet across the forecast area. Overnight low
temperatures will be a touch warmer than last night`s across the
plains, slightly cooler for the mountain valleys, with 40s and 50s
expected for the former, 20s and 30s for the latter.

As the low starts to move eastward, we will see increasing
southwesterly flow aloft as a near 70 kt 500mb jet moves over the
forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Mid level moisture will
increase through the day as ridging to the east helps pull
tropical moisture into Colorado. At the surface, lee troughing
will aid in gusty winds developing across the eastern plains,
where gusts between 35-45 mph will be possible for the afternoon
and evening. With dewpoints expected to be in the 50s and
afternoon temps climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s across the
plains, we expect instability to increase through the day. While
southerly winds typically make for drying conditions north of the
Palmer Divide, some of the hi-res guidance continues to hold onto
a line of storms moving from west to east across the plains
through the afternoon. While the NBM has trended PoPs slightly
upwards for tomorrow, have increased them slightly more to get a
mention of at least a slight chance for thunderstorms across the
plains for the afternoon and evening to account for the persistent
trend of convection potential guidance has held onto through even
the latest run. With the increasing flow aloft, 0-6 km bulk shear
will range from 35-55kts which would certainly bring the
potential for a few stronger to severe storms developing. The main
threat will be for gusty winds and hail. Due to the southerly
winds bringing upslope flow to the Cheyenne Ridge, this area would
have the greatest potential for the stronger storms, and as such,
the SPC has included Weld, Logan, and Morgan Counties in a
Marginal Risk for severe wind and hail potential.

QG ascent will reach its max Wednesday evening into Thursday as
the upper level low ejects across the Rockies to our north and a
cold front slides south across Colorado. This will bring some
light snow to the mountains, where the highest concentrations are
expected for the northern mountains, where 1-4 inches are expected
to accumulate through Thursday, and the Park Range is once again
the favored range. Where temperatures are warmer at the lower
elevations, expect scattered showers and storms throughout the
day, with the greatest coverage expected for the northern portions
of the plains.

Behind the cold front, Thursday`s afternoon high temperatures
will cool between 10-20 degrees below Wednesday`s 70s and 80s.
Overnight, there will be patchy frost potential for much of Weld
County where lows are forecast to be around 34 degrees. Along the
Palmer Divide, temps will be slighter cooler bringing potential
for areas of frost/freeze, as temps are currently forecast to
range between 32-35F. Expect to see some more frost advisories
across portions of the plains through the forecast period as we
approach the end of the growing season and freezing temperatures
greet us by the beginning of next week. If you haven`t winterized
your sprinkler system, consider doing so soon!

Quieter conditions are expected by Friday, with near normal
temperatures on tap into Saturday. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected by Sunday as ridging rebuilds over the western CONUS.
With the warmer and drier conditions will come some elevated fire
weather concerns for portions of the plains on Sunday and Monday,
with relative humidities dropping into the mid teens and winds
picking up with some lee troughing ahead of our next potential
weather system. A lot can change as we are still a ways out, but
snow enthusiasts rejoice! There is potential for our first shot
at lower elevation snowfall by the beginning of next week. Stay
tuned as we get closer!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR through the TAF period, though low confidence in the wind
forecast.

Well defined shear zone/boundary noted by TDEN and various surface
observations, sitting from north of APA to KDEN/KCFO. Expecting
that boundary to drift over DEN in the next hour or so before
retreating back. Drainage will be slower to develop this evening
as a result.

Similar uncertainty with winds tonight into Wednesday morning, as
guidance tries to advect a moist airmass back towards the
terminals. The HRRR/RAP/3km NAM all get the edge of that airmass
very close to DEN, and BUFKIT profiles would favor either dense
fog or very low stratus near 12z. Added VCFG into the TAF but will
need to watch trends closely.

Forecast confidence doesn`t improve on Wednesday as strong
southerly flow aloft will again attempt to mix down. Higher
confidence at APA, and lowest confidence at DEN where there are
hints of another boundary setting up near the field. Guidance has
also trended towards a little more convection in the afternoon,
further muddying the forecast and potential timing of the stronger
southerly flow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...999
AVIATION...Hiris