977
FXUS65 KBOU 021048
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today. Any thunderstorm activity confined to mountains.

- Storm chances increase Thursday and Thursday night.

- A chance of thunderstorms and normal temperatures are expected
  for the Fourth of July and Independence Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Convective inhibition was weakening on the plains per latest SPC
analysis, and we`re starting to see some surface based cumulus on
the plains. Thus, we still expect isolated to scattered storms
to develop onto the lower elevations with a bit more surface
heating. Those will continue through early evening, slowly
migrating eastward before the airmass stabilizes again late this
evening. The main hazard will be strong, gusty microburst winds
given DCAPE of 1400-1600 J/kg, and a couple severe gusts of 60 mph
over the northeast plains.

For Wednesday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift
eastward across the forecast area. This means a stronger cap, hot
temperatures (mid 90s for the plains), and less convective
activity. While a few showers/weak storms are still expected over
the mountains, the plains will almost certainly stay dry with
southerly flow aloft keeping the convection confined to the high
country.

For Thursday, we`re still on track to see a plume of sub-tropical
moisture move northward into Colorado, in the southerly flow
between the upper level high shifting into the Southern Plains
and a weak trough lifting across the Desert Southwest. As a
result, Thursday`s convective intensity and coverage is expected
to increase, with likely the best chance (30-60%) of rain this
week.

With regard to the Independence Day weather, we`re still seeing
mixed signals in the ensemble output. Most have the Desert
Southwest trough ejecting northeast across the forecast area by
mid day, while a few are still slower. The slower ones (about
20-30% of output) would suggest a higher chance of thunderstorms,
at least for the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the majority (70-80%)
being faster would suggest less coverage of somewhat weaker
storms, and also an earlier departure for evening events.

Typical summer weather is then expected through the Independence
Day weekend, with temperatures at/just above normal levels and a
few rumbles of thunder each afternoon and evening. MLCAPE does
build across the plains, so a couple strong/severe storms would be
possible mainly east of the I-25 Corridor during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

SW winds early this morning will become light and variable by 15z
and then transition to SE by 19z. Gusts up to 25 mph will occur
thru the aftn at APA and DIA.  SE winds this evening will become
southerly by 06z. VFR conditions will continue thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RPK