276
FXUS65 KBOU 061132
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
532 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon over the
  southeastern forecast area for a few hours.

- Elevated fire weather conditions again for most areas on
  Monday.

- Dry weather and much above normal temperatures continue through
  at least Friday, but odds favor a change in the weather toward
  next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Cloud free again tonight across the forecast area with weak surface
winds in place. Current temperatures are in the 40s F with mostly 30s
F over the mountains and high valleys.

Models have upper ridging over the forecast area today and tonight
with pretty weak west-northwesterly flow aloft.  The QG-Omega fields
show benign synoptic scale energy for the forecast area these first
two periods along with fairly normal diurnal low level wind patterns.
The airmass will remain dry with precipitable water values in the
0.20 to 0.50 inch range today and tonight, along with surface dew
point readings in the 15 to 30 F range. There is no CAPE over the
CWA today or tonight. Will keep it dry; no pops. Will go with
some mention of smoke in the forecast today and tonight as there
are plenty of fires burning to our west and northwest. For
temperatures, today`s highs look to be 2-4 C cooler than
yesterday`s. however today`s will still be around 10 degrees F
above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

We will see a continuation of much above normal temperatures
through at least Friday, as a flat upper level ridge keeps
tranquil and warm weather in place. A weak embedded trough early
Monday morning will bring a slight increase in northwesterly
breezes, but overall light winds should then prevail for much of
the week. High temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees above
normal, with highs pushing into the lower to mid 80s on the
plains, upper 60s and 70s in the foothills and high mountain
valleys, and 50s to mid 60s mountains. Sunshine will abound with
this dry airmass in place, while night-time will offer up cool
temperatures with strong radiational cooling. One exception to
the dryness could be Wednesday when a weak disturbance and meager
moisture allow for a couple light showers or sprinkles to
develop, mainly over the high country. Finally, with active fires
burning to our west we could see areas of smoke for the next few
days, although an eventual shift to southwesterly flow would be
helpful toward the latter half of the week.

We are still eyeing at least a brief change in the weather pattern
toward this coming weekend. There is considerable uncertainty,
however, as these types of patterns with an upper level trough
undercutting a dominating ridge are notoriously tricky. Both
timing and location will be in question, but most ensemble systems
are ushering in cooler temperatures either late Saturday or more
likely by Sunday. Ensembles would also favor just light
precipitation as the most likely outcome, but a small (10-15%)
chance of something more significant.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Models show weak and variable winds at DIA the rest of this
morning, then weak east and southeasterlies this afternoon into
early evening. Drainage wind patterns are expected by 03-04Z this
evening.  With such a dry airmass in place, there will be no
ceiling issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Upper ridging continue for the forecast area with a dry airmass
in place. Minimum humidities drop down into the teens this
afternoon for much of the CWA for a few hours. However, wind
speeds are not expected to very strong. The fire weather
conditions will remain elevated over the southeastern CWA; mainly
northern Lincoln, eastern Elbert, eastern Adams, eastern Arapahoe
and southern Washington Counties where a few winds gusts of 20-25
mph are possible for a few hours this afternoon.

Winds will increase a little for Monday with the passage of a
weak upper level disturbance. Speeds, however, should stay just
below critical thresholds with most gusts in the 15-20 mph range,
and only spotty 25 mph gusts in the morning in/near the Front
Range Foothills and Wyoming border. Humidity levels will be very
dry again, with 10-15% minimums.

Much above normal temperatures and very low humidity readings
will prevail through at least Friday. Winds will fortunately be
light.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM......RJK
LONG TERM.......Barjenbruch
AVIATION........RJK
FIRE WEATHER....Barjenbruch/RJK