451
FXUS65 KBOI 131002
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
402 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...An upper level
trough is moving south along the OR coast this morning. The flow
aloft is southwest, but is beginning to shift to the south as
the trough moves south. A band of precipitation is situated from
Burns OR northeast into McCall ID. As the flow aloft shifts to
the south, this band of precipitation will begin to move north
in Idaho, and be situated over eastern OR this morning.
Precipitation will taper off later this afternoon with partial
clearing as the trough pulls away. High clouds near Reno and
northern NV will lift northward into southwest ID late this
afternoon and evening, keeping temperatures mild overnight into
Tuesday morning. As the trough moves into central CA on Tuesday,
the flow shifts to the east-southeast, with warmer temperatures
over southwest ID. Partial clearing and breezy east-southeast
surface winds bring temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s
across the Snake Plain. Strong S-SE flow will advect subtropical
moisture into the area on Tuesday with intermittent showers
over the area. On Wednesday, the trough over CA moves northeast
over the Great Basin and southern ID with widespread
precipitation on Wednesday over southern ID, with only a slight
chance of precipitation northwest of Burns and Baker City OR.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The upper level trough
moves into eastern ID and central MT on Thursday, with showers
tapering off in southern ID by afternoon. Dry conditions on
Thursday through Sunday with northwest flow aloft and seasonable
temperatures. A shortwave ridge transitions over the area on
Saturday for a mild day, with temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal. Lower valleys approach 70 degrees on Saturday
with the ridge as the next system approaches from the Gulf of
Alaska. A cold front arrives on Sunday with unsettled conditions
and mountain snow into Monday. While both the deterministic and
ensemble guidance show good agreement on the overall pattern,
forecast confidence in the long term remains low due to poor
handling of typhoons in the western Pacific and their
interaction with the jet stream upstream of us.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with areas of MVFR to IFR in rain and mountain
snow showers, generally from KBNO to KBKE to KMYL. Mountains
obscured, with some improvement this afternoon. Surface winds: .
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20kt becoming SE 10-20kt Mon
evening.

KBOI...VFR. NW 5-10kt, shifting to SE 5-10kt by Tue morning.
Isolated showers early Tue morning.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA