615
FXUS65 KBOI 162031
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
231 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Mostly cloudy skies
this afternoon with light showers over the mountains as the
system that impacted the area continues to move east. The next
system arrives on Saturday morning in central OR with showers
and thunderstorms developing. As this system moves east, showers
become widespread with isolated thunderstorms across southwest
ID and southeast OR. The strongest thunderstorms will be south
of the Snake Basin on Saturday afternoon, with some storms
producing hail up to 0.5". Some storms may produce gusts up to
50 mph as well, but the highest threat of wind gusts will be
south of the Snake Basin in Owyhee and southern Twin Falls
County. The system will generally produce 0.25 to 0.50 inch in
the lower elevations, and 0.50 to 1.00 inch over the mountains
into Sunday. Wrap around precipitation continues over the
mountains on Sunday, as snow levels lower to 4000-5000` MSL
Sunday afternoon. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches possible over
the mountains above 7000 feet with this storm. Temperatures
will be quite cool as the center of the system moves overhead,
with values around 15 degrees below normal. Windy conditions
expected on Sunday with northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts to
45 mph across the Treasure and Magic Valleys. A wind advisory
may be needed across the I-84 corridor but will hold off on
issuing this shift. Drier conditions expected by Sunday night
with the start of a warming trend thereafter.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Quiet weather through the
next week. As the system that brought us our weekend weather
moves out of our area, low amplitude ridging will begin to set
in aloft. This will allow for temperatures on Monday to warm
nearly 10 degrees above what they were Sunday...but still
leaning below normal. The upper level ridge begins to flatten
through tuesday, putting our area under near zonal flow through
Friday. While most of our area will remain dry, shortwaves
embedded in the flow aloft will bring periodic chances of
precipitation over the West-Central Mountains. The best chance
of precipitation will be Tuesday afternoon with a 40% chance in
far northern Valley county. Winds will remain breezy through
early next week as a surface low continues to exit our area,
with gusts up to 30 MPH on Monday in the western Magic Valley.
Temperatures will warm to near normal by Tuesday, and then hover
there with little fluctuation in the daytime highs/overnight
lows. Snow levels follow a similar trend rising from 6-7 kft on
Monday to 8-9 kft by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Low ceilings and MVFR conditions near
KMYL, ceilings will rise through the afternoon. Mtns obscured.
Rain showers and thunderstorms will enter eastern Oregon early
Saturday morning and move into SW Idaho before 18z. MVFR
possible in showers/thunder. Snow Levels: 7-8 kft MSL. Surface
Winds: W-NW 5-15 kt becoming variable under 10 kt overnight.
Gusty erratic winds up to 40kt near storms. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: W-NW 10-25 kt becoming variable 20-30 kt Saturday morning.

KBOI...VFR. Rain showers Saturday morning lasting through
Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms possible (20-30%) from
17/15z to 18/03z, MVFR and gusts to 30 kt possible in thunder.
Surface winds: W-NW 8- 12 kt becoming E-SE 6-8 overnight.

Weekend Outlook...VFR to MVFR and a slight chance of IFR
Saturday with widespread precipitation and isolated
thunderstorms. Mountains obscured at times. Snow levels
7000-8500 ft MSL Saturday. Precipitation moves out from west to
east Sunday, with improving conditions (mostly VFR, but mountain
obscuration still likely). Surface wind increasing to NW 15-30
kt gusting up to 25-40 kt Sunday. Snow levels falling to
5000-7000 ft MSL Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF