111
FXUS65 KBOI 272041
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
241 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Only minor changes
from previous forecast. Wind Advisory will continue in se Oregon
(southern parts of Harney and Malheur Counties) until 5 PM PDT
for sustained southwest winds 25 to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph.
Also, scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms until sunset in eastern zones in Idaho. More
numerous showers and 10-15 degrees further cooling Friday,
with snow level lowering to 5000-5500 feet MSL in Oregon and
5300-6000 feet MSL in Idaho. New snow less than two inches,
however. Also a slight chance of afternoon and early evening
non-severe thunderstorms CWA-wide. Rain and snow showers will
continue Saturday mainly on the Idaho side, with snow level near
4500 feet MSL, but again only an inch or so new snowfall.
Chance of non-severe thunderstorms again Saturday afternoon
and early evening, this time only on the Idaho side. Clearing
and colder Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Another active set of
weather is due for the region. Sunday will be the day for
certainty of dry weather with a shortwave ridge passing over
the area. Sunday night into Monday morning the first of many
shortwave disturbances will begin to affect the area with
precipitation chances. ECMWF, GFS, and NBM ensembles are
highlighting areas of CAPE, although they are low (somewhere
50-350 J/kg) with the NBM giving the chance of thunderstorms
greatest potential Monday night. Confidence remains fairly low
with the probability of thunder being 15% or below area-wide.
Beyond Monday there is considerable uncertainty regarding how
the system evolves. Two quite different solutions show between
comparing the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS having a Fujiwhara
effect slinging a trough further south and the ECMWF having a
typical onland of a trough system. This is creating large
differences between QPF amounts especially into later time
periods. That being said, precipitation through Thursday appears
likely. Precipitation chances are generally 20%-50% area wide
with periods of 60-80% in the West-Central ID mtns Tuesday
through Thursday. Snow levels will begin at 4000-6000ft MSL
Sunday/Monday, lowering to 3500-4500ft MSL through Thursday.
While not much accumulation will come with any one single
period of precipitation, amounts will nickel and dime through
the week. The chance of exceeding 0.25" of precipitation between
Tuesday-Thursday will range from 50-70% in locations below
3500ft. In the same time frame, the chance of seeing snow
greater than 4" will be generally above 80% in the West-
Central ID and Owyhee mtns.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms ending this evening. Gusty and erratic winds and
MVFR conditions possible near thunderstorms. Mountains obscured
at times in showers and thunderstorms. Light rain and mountain
snow redeveloping Friday morning. Surface winds: S-SW 10-20 kt
with gusts to 30 kt this afternoon, except 15-30 kt with gusts
to 50 kt across far SE and S-central OR. Winds decreasing to
W-SW 5-15 kt by mid- evening. Winds aloft at 10kft: W-NW 15-30
kt.

KBOI...VFR. Shower and thunderstorm development possible (15%
chance) through early this evening, but expected to remain over
the foothills. Surface winds: S-SW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt,
becoming light and variable by mid-evening.

Weekend Outlook...Periods of precipitation expected over the
weekend, with a brief break Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
Friday has the best chance for thunderstorms, with chances for
thunder decreasing each day after. Generally VFR-MVFR in rain,
with reductions to IFR in mountain snow. Snow levels 5-6 kft
MSL Friday, lowering to 3500-4500 ft MSL Saturday. Surface
winds: Generally SW-NW 5-15 kt, becoming S-SE 10-20 kt Sunday
afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt in the Magic Valley on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Silvies River near Burns/OR near 14 ft this
afternoon will lower to 12.0 foot flood stage Monday, then rise
again to 13.5 feet Tuesday through Friday.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....ST
HYDROLOGY....LC