601
FXUS65 KBOI 241537
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
937 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers, mostly virga, have developed
across the forecast area this morning as monsoonal moisture
continues to advance northward. A weak shortwave embedded in the
southwesterly flow, located north of Reno this morning, is
helping to initiate a few thunderstorms across south-central and
eastern Oregon. However, widespread mid- to high-level moisture
has overspread much of the region, resulting in overcast skies
that should largely suppress additional convection through
midday.

High-resolution guidance suggests some partial clearing this
afternoon and evening, which could allow thunderstorms to
develop along the Nevada border where moisture is most abundant.
The 12Z Elko sounding measured over an inch of precipitable
water, highlighting the best potential for convection across our
southern area. Showers and thunderstorms may persist overnight,
mainly south of a BurnsMountain HomeFairfield line, as the
shortwave slowly lifts north-northeast across the region.

No headlines are in effect at this time. However, with
increasing moisture through midweek, the threat for flash
flooding on burn scars will also increase, especially Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR to LIFR visibility from smoke in
w-central Idaho (near KMYL), creating mtn obscuration. Virga
and isolated showers/t-storms in SE-Oregon capable of 40 kt
outflows Sun afternoon/early evening, and expand into SW Idaho
by Sun PM. Surface winds: variable 4-8 kt through early morning.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Light smoke layers degrading mtn visibility.
Surface winds: SE or variable 3-6 kt, then NW 5-10 kt with
occasional gusts to 15-20 kt Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Monsoon moisture
near the Nevada border today will continue to advect northward
through Tuesday under weak southwesterly flow aloft. The chances
for showers and thunderstorms reside across the southern areas
today, reaching all but the far northern areas on Monday, and
finally all areas across SE Oregon and SW Idaho on Tuesday. The
main concern is the threat of heavy rainfall on burn scars,
especially on Tuesday which is when the moisture is maximized.
Temperatures trend cooler each day.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The monsoon moisture
continues across the region through Thursday with the continued
risk for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, mainly on burn
scars. Models continue to support a drying trend late in the
week that continues into next weekend. Below-normal temperatures
on Wednesday warm to near normal on Friday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW