181
FXUS65 KBOI 040335
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
935 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
across much of southeast Oregon this evening ahead of an upper-
level trough approaching the Oregon coast. Earlier storms
produced isolated wind gusts up to 65 mph and at least penny-
sized hail. Heavy rainfall also triggered a debris flow on State
highway 26 near Brogan Hill within the Durkee Burn Scar.

Clusters of thunderstorms continue to develop across Malheur
and Baker Counties and are expected to push into the Lower
Treasure Valley and west-central mountains through late tonight.
With additional thunderstorms approaching the Cow Valley and
Durkee Burn Scars, the Flash Flood Warning remains in effect
through at least 9 PM MDT and may need to be extended for a few
more hours.Remaining storms tonight could produce gusty winds up
to 45 mph, heavy rain, and small hail. Activity will gradually
exit the region around midnight.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible late Monday morning
through Monday evening as the upper trough moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms still ongoing in eastern
Oregon and central Idaho, and are expected to weaken but continue
through the evening. Thunderstorms are capable of 30-45 kt outflows.
Cold frontal passage this evening combined with outflows bringing
widespread 40 kt gusts and areas of blowing dust at times. Surface
winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, this evening up to 45 kt
along a cold front. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S to SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...Showers and thunderstorms in vicinity as of 0330z, expected
to decrease spatial coverage heavily by 05z. Storms in the vicinity
will be capable of 30-45 kt gusts, and blowing dust, which may
degrade visibility. Surface winds: NW 15-20 kt, gusts to 30-40 kt
possible, becoming W-NW 5-10 kts overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Short term
concerns for this afternoon and evening remain the potential
for strong thunderstorms and the expected widespread gusty
winds. The area most likely to see both threats is northern
Malheur and eastern Baker counties in Oregon, and the lower
Treasure Valley and Weiser Basin in Idaho. Wind gust potential
in these areas is up to 60 mph through sunset. Winds will
propagate to the east and south, through the Snake Plain and
w-central ID and Boise Mtns this evening where support exists
for widespread gusts of 30-45 mph and localized 45-55 mph.
Blowing dust will accompany the stronger winds at lower
elevations. Timing wise, winds will ramp up from west to east
after 6PM MDT across e-central Oregon, extending into SW Idaho
around 8 PM MDT (tracking from Ontario to Mountain Home between
8 and 10PM) and into the western Magic Valley after 10PM. Winds
will remain gusty across the area through roughly Midnight MDT.

With the upper trough/dynamics still to our west, a 15-20%
chance of showers (and possibly a lightning flash or two)
remains in play across much of SE Oregon and w-central ID
overnight. We`re not out of the woods on Monday as the upper
trough, coupled with daytime heating, will bring another round
thunderstorms to e-central Oregon, and the lower Snake Plain
and w-central/Boise mtns in ID. Along with the dynamic trough,
there is relatively good low-mid shear (25-35 kt 0-6km), and
surface energy (200-400J/kg CAPE), along with a favorable
position under a weak but present upper jet streak. While gusty
winds are possible, cooling aloft could support a greater hail
potential from any stronger storms on Monday.

Activity trails off Monday evening as the upper trough exits
eastward. A drier and more stable air mass sets up over the
region on Tuesday. Monday is the coolest day with temperatures
around 10 degrees below normal (mid 80s/valleys to mid
70s/mtns), warming 3-8 degrees into Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...West-southwest flow
aloft ahead of a trough axis set to move through on Thursday.
Moisture will be mostly north of our area, but enough will move
through eastern OR and central ID for a 10%-20% chance of
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Cloud cover will increase
alongside the slight chances for precip. The cold front
associated with the trough moves through on Thursday, bringing
colder temperatures and gusty winds. After the trough moves
through, dry northwest flow aloft builds through the weekend
keeping temps a few degrees below normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JM