Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
141 FXUS65 KBOI 131553 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 953 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .DISCUSSION...Light showers and low clouds are slowly moving across the region this morning. Cooler temperatures will occur today ahead of a slight warm up tomorrow afternoon thanks to some increasing easterly winds. Wet and unsettled conditions will continue tomorrow and Wednesday, with a low chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the West Central and Boise Mountains. Snow levels will increase to 7000-8000 feet by tomorrow, keeping any snow accumulations to ridgetops and high mountain passes. No updates necessary to the forecast. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR, except MVFR-IFR in low stratus across SE OR and mountains in ID. Isolated rain/snow showers continue through the day, with a few stronger showers in OR. Precipitation coverage increases tonight and Tuesday morning, with snow levels at 7 kft MSL. Surface winds: Variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 10- 20kt. KBOI...VFR and broken-overcast, rain showers possible Tuesday morning. Surface winds stay out of the NW at 5-10 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...An upper level trough is moving south along the OR coast this morning. The flow aloft is southwest, but is beginning to shift to the south as the trough moves south. A band of precipitation is situated from Burns OR northeast into McCall ID. As the flow aloft shifts to the south, this band of precipitation will begin to move north in Idaho, and be situated over eastern OR this morning. Precipitation will taper off later this afternoon with partial clearing as the trough pulls away. High clouds near Reno and northern NV will lift northward into southwest ID late this afternoon and evening, keeping temperatures mild overnight into Tuesday morning. As the trough moves into central CA on Tuesday, the flow shifts to the east-southeast, with warmer temperatures over southwest ID. Partial clearing and breezy east-southeast surface winds bring temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Snake Plain. Strong S-SE flow will advect subtropical moisture into the area on Tuesday with intermittent showers over the area. On Wednesday, the trough over CA moves northeast over the Great Basin and southern ID with widespread precipitation on Wednesday over southern ID, with only a slight chance of precipitation northwest of Burns and Baker City OR. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The upper level trough moves into eastern ID and central MT on Thursday, with showers tapering off in southern ID by afternoon. Dry conditions on Thursday through Sunday with northwest flow aloft and seasonable temperatures. A shortwave ridge transitions over the area on Saturday for a mild day, with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. Lower valleys approach 70 degrees on Saturday with the ridge as the next system approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. A cold front arrives on Sunday with unsettled conditions and mountain snow into Monday. While both the deterministic and ensemble guidance show good agreement on the overall pattern, forecast confidence in the long term remains low due to poor handling of typhoons in the western Pacific and their interaction with the jet stream upstream of us. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SA AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA