553
FXUS65 KBOI 011552
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
952 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...Forecast will be updated this morning to include
wildfire smoke in the valleys of central Idaho through
Wednesday, which is evident in satellite images and webcams -
especially in Valley County. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
and warm afternoon temperatures under a northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Patchy smoke in Central ID
Mountain valleys overnight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt this
morning in the Snake River Valley and near KBKE, becoming W-SW
5-10 kt elsewhere this afternoon then variable less than 6 kt
overnight. Winds at 10kft MSL: W 10-20kt.

KBOI...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kt becoming variable less than 5 kt
after 02/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...This morning has
started off colder than usual, with temperatures running 5-8
degrees below average following the trough`s passage. However, a
flat Pacific upper ridge will move inland this afternoon,
pushing temperatures back above normal, reaching highs in the
upper 60s to around 80 degrees. By late Wednesday, another broad
Pacific trough will move inland, bringing a dry cold front.
This will cool temperatures down to near normal on Thursday,
accompanied by stronger northwesterly winds.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The upper-level jet will
remain just north of the region during the first part of the
extended forecast, bringing weak Pacific troughs. An upper-level
ridge will build ahead of the next trough on Friday, leading to
warmer and dry conditions. Highs will range from the 70s in the
mountains to the mid-80s in the lower valleys. As the trough
passes on Saturday, temperatures will drop by about 5-7 degrees,
though they will still remain above normal. A broader ridge
will quickly rebuild on Sunday, pushing the upper-level jet
further north and continuing the above-normal temperatures into
the middle of next week. Ensemble models suggest at least a 70%
chance of 80-degree temperatures or higher on Monday and
Tuesday, which is roughly 10 degrees above the seasonal average.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS