367
FXUS65 KBOI 070222
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
822 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...High clouds have increased in SE Oregon this
evening, and are moving into SW Idaho. Showers will move into
SE Oregon after midnight, and move in SW Idaho around sunrise.
There`s a slight chance of thunderstorms over most of the area
Monday afternoon/evening. All this is handled well by the
current forecast and no changes are planned at this time.

.AVIATION...VFR with high clouds through 07/06Z. Areas of MVFR
and possible IFR in showers will move into SE Oregon after
07/06Z and SW Idaho after 07/12Z. Mountains obscured
occasionally in precipitation. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt
tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft: SW 10-20 kt, increasing to 30-50
kt by 07/12Z.

KBOI...VFR. Increasing high clouds tonight. Rain showers after
07/13Z may bring brief MVFR. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
07/18Z. Winds SE 5-10 kt, becoming 10-20 kt after 07/04Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...The warmest
daytime highs in April (so far!) will occur today, with clear
skies and light winds dominating the weather across the region.
A cold front will continue to move onshore from the Oregon Coast
this evening, bringing showers and cooler temperatures to
southeast Oregon by late Sunday night. Showers will continue all
day tomorrow for most of the region, with the heaviest rain
falling in the afternoon-evening. Rainfall totals will be around
0.1-0.2 inches for lower elevations with anywhere from 0.5-1.0
inches for elevations above about 5000 feet by Tuesday afternoon.
Snow will occur above about 6500-7500 feet for most of the
region, with briefly lower snow levels (~5500-6500 feet) Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations will be minimal.
Instability will increase across the northern portions of the
region by late afternoon, bringing the chance (20%) of a
thunderstorm to Baker County-West Central Mountains through
late evening. Temperatures will cool off a bit tomorrow, but the
shortwave trough will then quickly move east, as another ridge
is set to rebuild over most of the region by Tuesday afternoon.
Showers will linger over higher terrain on Tuesday, but
accumulations will be minimal. Area rivers, creeks, and streams
will continue to rise with warmer temperatures, bringing a
return to minor flood stage for the Silvies River near Burns, OR
by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Models have changed
their tune about the midweek ridge rebuilding, with better
confidence in higher amplitude building through the region
through Friday. This will bring another period of warm
temperatures with the Treasure Valley potentially reaching near
80F on Thursday (~20% chance). Deterministic model runs and
ensemble range has decreased the precipitation threat by this
weekend, with the shortwave trough weakening and passing more to
our north through the weekend. Sunday looks to be the best
chance of precipitation, with varying outcomes depending on
where the low center passes. High terrain will favor any
precipitation, with cool enough temperatures for high elevation
snow.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA