546
FXUS65 KBOI 160922
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
322 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Isolated showers
continue across portions of south central Idaho this morning,
mainly south of the Snake River plain. This activity is expected
to end by sunrise as the low moves east. Clearing skies are
expected today, though temperatures will remain around 5 degrees
below normal under dry northwest flow aloft. Afternoon wind
gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be common across the Snake Basin,
with the strongest winds east of Boise.

Light winds and clear skies tonight should allow temperatures
to fall into the mid to upper 30s in the western Snake River
Plain. At the moment, most valley locations look to remain at or
just above 36 degrees Friday morning, with the ensembles
showing only a 10 percent chance of temperatures below 36
degrees (the frost threshold) across the Boise Metro area.

On Friday, northwest flow aloft will continue as a shortwave
trough moves by to the north, which will keep winds breezy
during the day. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but remain
a couple degrees below normal. Overnight lows will be slightly
colder with lighter winds, allowing sheltered areas in the
agricultural valleys to dip into the low to mid 30s. Ensembles
suggest a 40 percent chance of low temperatures reaching 36
degrees or colder. Due to this increasing risk, the potential
for frost will be monitored closely, as a Frost Advisory may be
warranted for Saturday morning.

The upper level ridge rebuilds back across the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday, with temperatures warming to near normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...There is now stronger
agreement between the long-range guidances on a longwave trough
digging across the Northwest region on Sunday. Widespread
precipitation will be expected throughout the area on Sunday,
with the heaviest episodes expected through the afternoon hours.
This pattern will bring a cooling trend, dropping snow levels
down into the 5000-6000 ft range late Sunday into early Monday.
As such, snowfall and mixed wintry precipitation remains highly
probable over higher elevations through early Monday. This
cooldown will drop peak temperatures from the mid 60s Sunday
down into the mid to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday for most
locations in the area. From the later hours of Monday through
the end of the extended period, a broad upper ridge is expected
to build and linger over the area, bringing a slight drying and
warming trend. A weak shortwave trough is expected to break off
the British Columbia coast and dig quickly across the OR/ID
central mountains on Wednesday, but is expected to be dry and
weak. Peak daytime temperatures are expected to slowly trend
back up into the lower to mid 60s for most locations Wednesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR from low stratus in Magic
Valley (KTWF/KJER). Precipitation episodes will continue in S-
central ID until 12z. Mountains obscured in precipitation and low
ceilings. Snow levels dropping to 5-6.5 kft MSL overnight
. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kts through the Snake
Plain. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt,
with gusts 15-20 kt beginning early this morning and continuing
through afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Mostly clear conditions Friday through Saturday. W-
NW winds 5-15 kt Friday, with some higher gusts up to 20 kt over
higher elevations. Clear skies and E-SE winds 5-10 kt through
early/midday Saturday. Cloud coverage will gradually increase late
Saturday into Sunday. Widespread precipitation expected across E`rn
OR early morning Sunday and then throughout SE OR/SW ID Sunday
afternoon/early evening. Sunday winds E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts up to
25 kt along the lower valleys. Snow levels rising to 7000-9000 ft
range Saturday then dropping again into 5000-6000 ft range through
Sunday. 10kft winds W-NW 10-20 kt Saturday becoming W-SW 20-30 kt
Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY