732
FXUS65 KBOI 100843
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Diffuse cold
front extending sw-ne through our CWA this morning will end
up east-west across southern OR and southern ID this afternoon,
then shift northward again as a dry warm front tonight through
Friday. Models have just enough moisture and instability for
isolated thunderstorms in Valley County/ID this afternoon.
Only slight thermal contrast exists across the front but today
will still be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to cloud
cover. Clearing skies from south to north tonight will allow
slightly colder low temps Friday morning, but greater sunshine
will also allow warmer temps again Friday afternoon, with little
change Saturday. Winds today will be generally light westerly,
but afternoon gusts to 20 mph will blow in the southwest ID
highlands and in the Camas Prairie. Winds Friday will be mainly
terrain driven, less than 10 mph, except up to 15 mph in the
central ID mountains.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Warm, southwest flow
will develop aloft Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a notable
Pacific trough, with high temperatures remaining around 10
degrees above normal each day. Winds will increase Wednesday as
the trough arrives and brings a cold front through southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho Wednesday morning/afternoon. High
temperatures are forecast to lower by 10 degrees with the front,
with additional 10 degrees of cooling expected Thursday as the
trough continues to move overhead. The probability for
precipitation will increase, with the best chances (20-40%)
occurring both Wednesday and Thursday. In correlation with the
rapid cool-down, snow levels could drop as low as 6000-7000 ft
MSL by Thursday and support light snowfall on the high terrain.
Breezy to windy conditions should persist Thursday and Friday
as a secondary wave of colder air moves across the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Broken mid/high clouds and virga. Areas
of smoke with reduced visibility near wildfires in the central
Idaho mountains and portions of SE Oregon. Surface winds:
Variable less than 10 kt, then NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Broken high clouds. Surface winds: variable 3-6 kt
this morning, then NW 5-10 kt by Thu/18Z.

Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR. Broken mid/high clouds, clearing
Sunday. Areas of smoke with reduced visibility near wildfires
in the central Idaho mountains and portions of SE Oregon.
Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH