596
FXUS65 KBOI 061527
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...It will remain clear and dry today with westerly
winds aloft. Smoke from larger fires in the w-central Idaho
mountains will be transported eastward today. Early morning
KBOI weather balloon showing notable warming below about 12kft
MSL over the last 24 hours. This will translate to the expected
5-10 degrees of warming from yesterday. Current forecast is on
track so no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Most areas VFR under clear skies. Local IFR and
mountain obscuration near active wildfires across the w-central
ID mtns will impact backcountry airstrips. Surface winds: SW-NW
5-15 kt by this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Smoke layers from Valley fire will reduce visibility
along foothills through 18Z. Winds remaining 7 kt or less today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Warm and dry
conditions are expected through Tuesday as an upper-level ridge
remains in place. This ridge will reach its peak strength over
the forecast area on Monday before shifting eastward on Tuesday.
As a result, temperatures will gradually rise, reaching the low
80s in the Western Snake River Plain on Monday and Tuesday.
High-resolution models indicate that high- level moisture will
move in with a weak shortwave passing through Monday afternoon
and evening. Satellite data this morning shows a small area of
ongoing convection near 35N and 125W, which appears to be the
moisture source indicated by the high-res models for Monday
afternoon. Though confidence is low on the extent of moisture
moving inland, maintained a slight chance (15%) of showers over
the higher terrain near the Nevada border. Smoke will continue
to be an issue in the mountain valleys, with inversions trapping
it during the morning hours.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Warm and dry southwest flow
aloft is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Cloud cover will become
widespread Thursday into Friday as a weak trough approaches from the
west. Long range models are out of agreement on the timing and the
extent of moisture this trough will bring to the forecast area when
it arrives. The probability of showers remains at 10-20% chance for
northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho with the passage expected
sometime Friday or Saturday. Temperatures will lower to roughly 5
degrees below normal for Fri/Sat, as well. Warmer and drier weather
should return by Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....SH