102
FXUS65 KBOI 072113
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
213 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Snow has
generally ended in northern areas and the Winter Weather
Advisory has been cancelled. Several inches of snow fell
in the southwest Idaho valleys last night and this morning.
Model snow levels were too high and they missed the event.
The unexpected snow cover will lead to colder temps and
patchy fog once skies clear and winds decrease. But so far
winds have continued gusty in south-central Idaho and a
Wind Advisory remains in effect there until 5 PM MST.
Winds will decrease this evening but skies will be slow
to clear as another short wave trough and more snow showers
come in Saturday from the northwest and hit the northern
half of our CWA. The full effect of radiational cooling
will not be felt until Sunday night. Even so, this weekend
will be colder under northerly flow aloft, and Sunday night
will be very cold as modified arctic air invades from the
north and northeast. The Camas Prairie and higher mountain
basins in Idaho will likely dip to 20-30 below zero Monday
morning, while populated lower valleys have lows in the
teens.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...With a ridge to the west
and a low over the Hudson Bay, cold NW flow will dominate from
Monday through Wednesday evening. A cooling trend during this
period will be enhanced by a very positively tilted trough
bringing a burst of colder air Tuesday and Wednesday. We`ll
cool from 10-15 degrees below normal Monday morning to 20-25
degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, for many
locations the coldest temperatures this winter. The coldest
10% of models show minimum temps below zero Wednesday morning
for the Treasure Valley, while the warmest 10% show 10-20
degrees Fahrenheit. During this cold stretch, there will be
just enough moisture for a 15% chance of snow showers over
mountains. Later Wednesday the NW flow becomes more zonal and
warming begins into Thursday. Deterministic and ensemble models
seem honed in on our next system arriving Thursday afternoon
and kicking off a wetter pattern. With snow levels remaining
at valley floors, most of the area would see 2-5 inches,
mountain valleys 5-10 inches, and ridges up to 2 feet. A few
ensemble members have warmer solutions for lower elevations,
but snow is favored with the latest runs.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR and overcast, though intermittent low
stratus causing MVFR/IFR. Isolated snow showers continue over
mountains. Tonight and Saturday morning patchy valley fog in
mountain valleys may drift into lower valleys as well, though
confidence is too low for inclusion in most TAFs. Surface winds:
W/NW 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming light and
variable this evening/tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W 15-25 kt.

KBOI...Generally VFR. Less than 10% chance of fog formation
tonight doesn`t warrant a mention in the TAF. NW winds 5-10 kt
today become lighter and more variable tonight.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR, with brief MVFR/IFR in
mountains due to isolated snow showers. Surface winds:
NW 5-15 kt. 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ015-016-029-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM