Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
058 FXUS65 KBOI 010230 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 830 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms popped up over the Owyhee Mountains and near the ID-NV border this evening, with one pulsing up quickly near Riddle, ID around 5:45pm. Otherwise, the main headline has been the breezy northwest winds across the region. These have mostly subsided, but strong winds with isolated high terrain showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chance) are anticipated to return tomorrow as the upper level trough swings east. Near normal temperatures with continued partial cloud cover will continue through the midweek. Due to the continued increase in hi-res model winds for tomorrow afternoon, have increased wind speeds for the evening update. Otherwise, no forecast updates necessary. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon tonight with only scattered high clouds remaining after midnight. Surface winds will be light W-NW overnight, then increasing again tomorrow afternoon to W-NW 15-20 kts. Expect dry conditions through Monday in most areas with only a slight chance (20% chance) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the central Idaho mountains vicinity of KMYL and over higher terrain near the Nevada border. KBOI...VFR with only scattered high clouds. Surface winds W-NW 5-10 kts overnight, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt on Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...An upper level trough will move by tonight through tomorrow, helping isolated thunderstorms to form both this afternoon/evening and Monday afternoon/evening. Storms will be capable of small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph. These storms are forecast in the northern higher terrain, near the NV border in SE Oregon, and in/near Owyhee and Twin Falls counties. Outside those areas, expect partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures, with readings a few degrees below normal. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be dry with temps remaining a few degrees below normal. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A dry and hot pattern is very likely to take shape during the second half of the week. The primary feature of interest will be a strong anticyclone and accompanying ridge centered near the Pacific coast. GEFS/EPS ensemble mean forecasts are consistent in keeping the ridge positioned to the west, which will likely keep the potential for record-setting temperatures at bay at least temporarily. This is a departure from some earlier deterministic model runs which were showing an exceptionally strong ridge moving directly into the Great Basin. Regardless, it will still be very hot, with probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 100 degrees peaking on Saturday and Sunday at 40-60% through the Snake Valley and southeast Oregon. There is even around a 10% chance Ontario, Oregon reaches 110 degrees this upcoming weekend. Precipitation chances will also remain near-zero throughout this entire period, with any hints of Monsoon moisture shunted well to the south. Wednesday will see elevated fire weather potential for parts of the Magic Valley amidst an increase in west winds and low humidities. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SA AVIATION.....JB SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....JR