


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
942 FXUS65 KBOI 100947 CCA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 347 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Southeast OR and southwest ID remains sandwiched in a dry slot between a storm system off the Pacific NW coast and subtropical moisture moving northward over NV and UT into eastern ID. Enough moisture and instability exists for showers and thunderstorms north and east of the Magic Valley this morning, as southerly flow aloft banks up against the central ID mountains. Dry air remains over eastern OR and most of southwest ID west of Mountain Home to McCall. A cold front is situated over western OR this morning and will slowly advance across central and eastern OR this afternoon. Breezy southeast to southwest winds strengthen this afternoon ahead of the cold front as winds aloft mix down to the surface for most locations. There is not enough moisture for showers and thunderstorms to form in eastern OR as the cold front advances east this afternoon. For example, dewpoints in eastern OR will be in the 20s ahead of the cold front. In southwest ID, a moisture boundary from the moisture situated over eastern NV and UT will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon as the cold front clashes with the higher moisture content air, generally from Caldwell/McCall and areas east. Dewpoints over Twin Falls, Jerome and Fairfield reach the low 50s ahead of the cold front this evening. Strong wind gusts possible to 50 mph along the front with storms that do form around the Magic Valley and Boise Mountains. Cooler air moves into the area on Saturday morning with high temperatures around 20-25 degrees cooler than Friday. Still quite a lot of uncertainty for the sensible weather on Saturday, as the HRRR has widespread precipitation across the area for much of the day, while the rest of the ensemble suite has relatively dry conditions. If the HRRR pans out, temperatures will be cooler with more precipitation than currently forecast. Nonetheless, breezy west-northwest winds of 20-30 mph expected Saturday afternoon. Sunday the trough moves overhead with cool and unsettled conditions, with light snow on the mountains above 7000 feet. Temperatures on Sunday around 10 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Cool and unsettled conditions will persist through the extended period, though confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and placement of precipitation. A broad trough will continue to remain around the Pacific NW, with several shots of cool air arriving from the north. One such shortwave retrogrades into a low pressure system off the Pacific NW coast on Monday and becomes a cutoff low. This shifts the flow back to the southwest and allows temperatures to moderate on Monday and Tuesday. This trough digs into southern NV/CA by Wednesday with wrap around subtropical moisture impacting the area. While both the deterministic and ensemble guidance show good agreement on the overall pattern, forecast confidence remains low due to the extreme amount of energy coming out of the western Pacific due to the typhoons moving into the jet stream upstream of us. Notably Typhoon Halong and the interaction with the jet stream as it becomes a hurricane force low in the Bering Sea this weekend. These complex interactions have historically been poorly handled by the model suites and this time will be no different. While the large scale pattern favors a continuation of below normal temperatures, the evolution of each system will depend heavily on how these Pacific interactions upstream unfold. Or TLDR, the forecast will change greatly each day even if there is good model agreement in the extended. && .AVIATION...VFR. Areas of LLWS through early Fri morning. Showers developing over the central ID mountains early Friday morning. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms in s-central/central Idaho in the afternoon, capable of outflows to 35-45 kt and small hail. Brief MVFR in storms. Mountains becoming obscured. Surface winds: SE 10-20 kt in the morning shifting to SW 15-25kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 25-35 kt during the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR. LLWS this morning. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt in the morning, shifting to S-SW in the afternoon and NW in the evening. Gusts increasing to 20-30 kt Friday afternoon. Weekend Outlook...Areas of mountain obscuration Sat morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers continue into Sunday with snow levels 5-7kft MSL and mountains obscured. Periods of low VFR/MVFR in rain, and IFR/LIFR in snow. Breezy conditions both afternoons with W-NW gusts of 20-30kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA