209
FXUS64 KBMX 082317
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

The region will remain situated between upper-level ridging to our
east, and a weak trough to our west. However, the ridge will
continue to break down over the course of this afternoon, allowing
for the trough to become the dominant feature. As this occurs over
the next day or two, afternoon rain chances will greatly increase,
with the best rain chances falling north of I-20. This will be due
to a "lack" of moisture, as the ridge to our east continues to
degrade.

Given the increased cloud cover and rain chances, afternoon
highs tomorrow will generally range in the low-90s, with overnight
lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low-70s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

Weak troughing will continue to linger, before upper-level ridging
begins to build back into the weekend. With that being said, rain
chances will continue to linger, as the ridge building back in
will be a gradual process, and plenty of moisture will remain
situated across the region. Otherwise, afternoon highs will
continue to range in the low-90s, and overnight lows will continue
to range in the low-70s

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

This afternoon`s convection will begin to wane over the next
couple of hours as we lose daytime heating. Included a mention of
VCTS at BHM where the best chances are through 01Z. VFR conditions
and light winds are expected through the majority of this TAF
cycle. With that said, patchy MVFR fog is possible for those that
received rain today. Opted for TEMPO groups at EET/TCL for now.
Another round of convection is likely Wednesday afternoon.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The moist airmass will remain in place for most of the next week,
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each day. MinRH
values likely won`t drop below 60%, with Mixing Heights remaining
variable due to the cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  70  88 /  20  70  40  80
Anniston    72  90  71  87 /  20  60  40  80
Birmingham  72  90  72  88 /  20  60  40  80
Tuscaloosa  73  90  72  88 /  20  60  40  80
Calera      73  90  72  88 /  20  60  40  80
Auburn      73  90  72  89 /  20  50  40  70
Montgomery  74  92  72  91 /  20  50  30  70
Troy        72  92  72  91 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo