426
FXUS64 KBMX 161836
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025

This afternoon.

A northwest flow pattern aloft persists over the forecast area
this afternoon as longwave troughing is positioned over the
Eastern Seaboard while amplified ridging extends from over
Northern Mexico further northward over the Central Plains.
Elongated surface high pressure extends from across the Western
Great Lakes southward through the Western Ohio and Tennessee River
Valley Regions into the Mid-South Region.

Sunny skies are forecast across the area this afternoon with
northwest winds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from
around 70 in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 70s
across much of the southern and western portions of the area.

Tonight.

The longwave trough will move further offshore of the Northeast
Coast tonight while the high-amplitude longwave ridging builds
closer to the area, extending from over Northeast Mexico northward
to over the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi River Valley Regions.
Elongated surface high pressure will remain across the area
overnight as it extends from Northern Michigan southward to across
the Western Florida Panhandle.

Look for clear skies overnight with light northeast winds from
near calm up to 3 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northeast to the mid 40s south and west.

Thursday.

High amplitude longwave ridging will continue to build closer
from the west, extending from over the Northwest Gulf northward to
over much of the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will migrate
further eastward through the day, extending from across the Mid-
Atlantic Region southwest to across the Northern Florida
Peninsula.

Expect Mostly sunny skies on Thursday with a southeast wind
developing through the day from 5-10 mph. The warming trend will
continue across the area with highs ranging from the mid 70s in
the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 80s across the
southwest third of the forecast area.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025

The surface high currently in place will slide eastward by the end
of the week as southerly surface flow returns and temperatures warm
into the mid 80s by Friday and Saturday. An upper-level ridge
centered across the eastern Gulf and Florida will slide eastward
behind the surface high through the weekend as a trough swings
across the Plains, becoming negatively tilted. Model discrepancy for
Sunday through mid next week looks worse than last night, with the
GFS continuing to be an outlier. The GFS sweeps a cold front through
Central Alabama Sunday evening, with a weak surface low quickly
moving up the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. It then builds in a
surface high, with the state remaining dry after Monday morning. The
ECMWF currently depicts a healthier-looking vertically stacked
system with a deepening surface low and negative-tilt upper trough
pulling northward from Oklahoma to the Lake Superior region Sunday
into Monday. It brings a cold front into Central Alabama Monday
evening, which then stalls. The boundary lingers across the south
into mid-next week, with an active pattern compared to the high and
dry GFS. Consensus seems to favor the ECMWF solution for now, and as
such, the official forecast for next week features highs in the low
80s and chances for rain and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
Severe weather is outlooked for the lower Mississippi Valley for
Sunday, so will continue to monitor trends in case a lower-end
severe threat becomes more likely across Central Alabama into
Monday.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect SKC
conditions today and tonight followed by some high clouds
increasing with time during the day Thursday. Low-level winds will
be from the northwest at 2-4 kts today followed by near-calm
conditions overnight and winds developing from the southeast at
4-8 kts on Thursday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Sunny skies are forecast with generally light surface winds from
the northwest from 3-6 mph. RH values will drop into the lower 20
percent range by mid to late afternoon followed by recovery
overnight. Some high clouds will move over the area on Thursday
with a developing southeast wind from 5-10 mph. RH minimums will
dip to near 30 percent during the mid to late afternoon hours as
dry and warm conditions persist across the area. For Friday,
expect RH values of 25-35 percent with winds increasing from the
south at 6-12 mph. Dry conditions are forecast through at least
late Sunday evening across the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     41  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    44  79  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  48  80  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  46  81  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      46  79  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      48  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  46  81  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        46  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05