Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
603 FXUS64 KBMX 150646 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 146 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025 - Medium to high (40-80%) chances of showers and storms this weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday night and noon on Sunday. - Probabilities for any severe storms remain low at this time due to weak instability, but will be monitored. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025 Today Through Friday Night The deep-layer ridge axis will be situated over the ArkLaTex today, influencing dry, unseasonably warm conditions across Central Alabama and light northeasterly flow in the low-levels. The ridge axis will begin to shift eastward on Thursday in response to an ejecting longwave trough over the Four Corners region, and the high pressure center will shift from the Great Lakes region towards the Mid- Atlantic. As the pattern shifts, expect mostly sunny conditions here at home for the next couple of days with increasing clouds on Friday as a shortwave lifts across the Midsouth region. Temperatures will reach the 80s each day with seasonably cool conditions at night. Saturday Through Tuesday The ridge axis will be well situated to our east by Saturday and south to southeasterly low to mid-level flow will develop across Central Alabama as the trough deepens over the Plains. This should initiate gradual moisture advection in advance of an approaching cold front which will be situated near the Mississippi River around the Saturday night to Sunday morning timeframe. A severe threat will exist across the Midsouth region Saturday afternoon, weak low-level lapse rates and meager instability should limit the severe threat by the time the rain and storms reach our forecast area either late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Nonetheless, a level 1 out of 5 severe risk may be warranted as we get closer and are able to better assess the details. No need to initiate messaging for that potential risk at this point. Otherwise, the entire area should receive beneficial rainfall, but amounts will be far from drought-busting. There are medium chances of exceeding one inch of rainfall across the northern and northwestern portions of the area while forecast amounts are less than an inch elsewhere, largely due to the quick passage of the front. Cooler and dry conditions are set to return on Monday as northwesterly flow develops behind the frontal passage. Many locations across the northern half of the area will see lows in the 40s Monday morning. Models are indicating the development of another 592dm ridge which will center over Central America and southern Texas, becoming the dominant feature to maintain dry conditions heading into next week. Although, early signals indicate that the pattern will be more progressive than it has been as of late. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025 VFR TAFs are expected to continue through the next 24 hours as deep- layer ridging remains situated to our west. Expect a very light north wind this afternoon around 5 kts or less, then calm conditions resume by 00Z. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20 foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 88 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 88 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin