626
FXUS64 KBMX 192058
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

This afternoon.

Broad mid-level ridging is over much of Texas while troughing is
positioned roughly along the Eastern Seaboard. Surface high
pressure extended from Southeast Canada southwest through the Ohio
River Valley down through the Mid-South and into far Southeast
Texas while a weak stationary front extends from offshore of the
Southeast Atlantic Coast westward across tar South Georgia into
the Wiregrass Region of far Southeast Alabama.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with dry conditions
across the area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations
far east to the low 90s across the far west and portions of the
southern counties.

Tonight.

Broad ridging aloft will persist over much of the Lone Star State
overnight while the East Coast trough slowly moves further east.
Surface high pressure migrates further east, extending from
Upstate New York southwest down the Appalachians into North
Georgia and extending further southwest to over the Gulf Coast
Region while the weak surface boundary loses definition well to
our southeast.

Fair skies are forecast areawide while some brief patchy fog may
develop across portions of the northwest and east-central counties
before sunrise Friday morning. Winds will be light from the
northeast at 2-4 mph overnight. Low temperatures will range from
around 60 far northeast to the mid 60s southwest and central.

Friday.

Mid-level ridging will inch closer to the area from the southwest
with the feature becoming centered over the San Antonio area. A
northeast flow will develop in the lower levels with strong
surface high pressure continuing to build into the area from the
northeast, extending from Coastal Atlantic Canada down the
Appalachians and into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi River
Valley Regions.

Expect partly cloudy skies Friday with northeast winds from 4-8
mph. Dry conditions will continue across the area as high
temperatures range from the upper 80s in the higher terrain east
to readings in the lower 90s across the west and central counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

The long-term forecast remains on track and there was no
mentionable changes to previous. We`ll remain relatively warm and
dry for the next several days, though some low-end rain chances
return toward the end of the period as boundary layer moisture
increases. We`ll also monitor subsequent interests in the tropics.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

With an upper level ridge building into the southeast states at
the start of the long term, conditions will remain dry with a
gradual warming trend for central Alabama. There`s a shortwave
trough (or series of troughs) that is forecast to scoot across the
top of the ridge early next week, which could tease us with a
cold front. However, model blends suggest we will remain rain free
until at least Tuesday, and even then chances don`t get any
higher than 20 or 30 percent.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Fair weather
cumulus will develop over much of the area through the afternoon
hours but dry conditions are forecast areawide due to strong
subsidence in the mid levels. Low-level winds will be from the
northwest at 3-6 kts. Overnight, expect fair skies with potential
for some brief reduction in visibility across portions of the
northwest and eastern areas before sunrise Friday morning. Fair
skies are forecast through the morning on Friday with low-level
winds from the northeast at 3-6 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high
pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s
and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from
35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will
remain less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  91  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    63  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  65  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  92  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      65  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      66  88  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        66  90  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...05