207
FXUS64 KBMX 300850
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
350 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2024

Light winds and elevated surface moisture has allowed dense fog
and low clouds to develop where mid and high level clouds have
cleared. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for northern and
western counties until 9am.

An upper level low will continue to rotate northeastward through
the Virginias today, opening into a trough stretching to the
southwest through the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight. A
shower or two is possible this afternoon under the stretched
trough aloft, but chances are too low to include rain chances at
any location. The trough shifts eastward Tuesday, with deep layer
northerly flow developing as high pressure shifts across the
Central Plains. Dry conditions prevail, with highs in the 80s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2024

Lingering trough will finally push east of the area Tuesday night,
allowing a cold front to approach from the northwest. However, it
will become diffuse with time as mid-level ridging builds in from
the west, and the lower dew points now look to stall just northwest
of the area. Low-level flow will also become easterly as high
pressure slides eastward. Have therefore trended low temperatures
upward Tuesday night and Wednesday night, with warming temperatures
expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A disorganized southern stream
trough approaches on Thursday as the ridge moves east of the area.
Return flow may allow an old frontal boundary and associated
tropical moisture to lift northward from Gulf into the area.
Isentropic lift and a possible mid-level disturbance coming out of
the Gulf may allow for some shower activity Thursday night and
Friday (20-40% chances). High temperatures may be tempered depending
on how much rain coverage there is. Moisture currently looks to exit
to the southeast by Saturday as low to mid level flow becomes
northeasterly.

NHC continues to indicate a 50% chance of tropical development in
the Gulf in the next 7 days within a broad area of low pressure.
Potential for a couple smaller areas of low pressure to form leads
to uncertainty as to which one will become dominant. Ensembles
indicate the most likely scenario is for any tropical activity to
remain south/southeast of the area through at least the current 7
day forecast period but will continue to monitor.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2024

Forecast overnight calls for a mix of low clouds and fog across
north central Alabama, with conditions falling to IFR around
sunrise. Cannot rule out localized LIFR. If clouds do not
materialize, will likely need to adjust vis down due to fog
development.

Improvement is expected through the morning hours with VFR
conditions by 15-16Z, with light winds through the period.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than a low chance of a shower today, dry conditions prevail
through midweek. Min RHs through Tuesday will be in the 50- 70%
with a south to north gradient. Westerly 20ft winds will become
northerly by tomorrow, at less than 7kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  60  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    81  63  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  81  64  83  65 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  82  64  85  65 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      83  65  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      84  66  84  66 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        85  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-
Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-
Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...14