717
FXUS64 KBMX 061033
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
533 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across
  Central Alabama through the afternoon hours. The threats
  include isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

- Heavy rainfall is expected and may lead to localized flooding as
  this storm system slows its movement as it pushes southeast
  across the area. A Flood Watch is in effect 6 pm Monday
  evening.

- Frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of
  the area Tuesday morning and all of Central Alabama Wednesday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025

The orientation of the main line will eventually begin to orient
more ENE-WSW with time as the outflow keep sinking south. The main
activity should reach the Birmingham metro area by 6-8 AM. Behind
the main line, continuing rain and thunderstorms are anticipated,
which may transition areas along I-20 to a flooding threat
further into the morning.

The system continues its slow trek to the east through the day.
While a few segments within the line of showers and storms will be
capable of severe, with all modes of severe possible. We may see
an uptick in convection the later we get into the late morning and
early afternoon as we see some heating ahead of the line. This
system will not be moving at a fast clip, so flooding will likely
become a concern through the day, with perhaps the highest totals
between I-20 and I-85. Latest guidance places a large swath of 3
to 4 inches in this area through Monday afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025

Behind this system, we are going to see some colder temperatures
move into the region along with dry air. Right now we may see
frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of the
area Tuesday morning and all of Central Alabama Wednesday morning.
So be ready to make preparations for any sensitive vegetation.
The next rain maker will be Thursday afternoon into Friday with a
passing cold front. The main dynamics for this system remains well
to the north so severe weather should not be an issue.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025

MVFR conditions will expand over the area ahead of the line of
storms. At this time the showers and storms are in TCL and will be
moving into BHM by 12z. EET/ASN/ANB by 12 to 13z. MGM will likely
see the line work in by 15 to 16z. This will be an extremely slow
system and will provide showers and storms for a prolonged time
through the afternoon. Flooding may develop as well and could
impact a few locations.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Heavy rain and storms will overspread across the area through
Monday, with a Flood Watch now in effect through Monday evening.
However, conditions will quickly mix back out behind the front,
with MinRH values expected to fall back into the upper 20s to low
30s by Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  50  58  37 / 100  60  30   0
Anniston    74  53  58  38 / 100  70  50   0
Birmingham  73  52  57  41 / 100  60  30   0
Tuscaloosa  74  50  60  40 / 100  40  20   0
Calera      73  52  59  40 / 100  60  40   0
Auburn      77  58  61  42 / 100 100  80  10
Montgomery  79  56  60  42 / 100  90  70  10
Troy        80  57  60  42 /  90 100  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16