371
FXUS64 KBMX 162334
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
634 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late
   tonight after midnight into Saturday morning across the
   northern portions of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk
   late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across the
   southern half of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large
   hail are the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A 591dam ridge is centered over the Gulf this afternoon with deep
southwesterly flow across Central Alabama bringing warm air into the
region. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s
today. An upper-level trough will gradually move east from the Upper
Plains across the Great Lakes region today through tomorrow with the
trough axis extending south into the Mid-South region, but with the
pattern notably less amplified over the Southeast due to the
opposing interaction between the trough and the subtropical ridge. A
nearly east to west oriented front will move south into the area
early tomorrow morning supporting convective activity from the
Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley. Models depict rather
disorganized convection in somewhat of a broken line or through a
few separate rounds which will move into northern portions of the
forecast area around midnight tonight, weakening with southern
extent through the early morning hours due to the lack of upper-
level support.

Despite lessening synoptic support, the preceding airmass will be
warm and unstable with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5-
7 C/km, and MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. Stronger winds aloft will also
support bulk shear values of 60-70 kts, so these conditions will be
more than enough to support a risk of strong to severe storms.
Damaging winds will be the primary concern, especially as the
activity becomes increasingly outflow driven, chasing the unstable
air. But the steep lapse rates could also support instances of large
hail up to quarter size as well. It certainly looks like
thunderstorm intensity and coverage will wane quickly by mid-morning
as the activity moves south of Birmingham.

There should be a break in the activity by late morning through
early afternoon as the remnant front and any leftover outflow
boundaries begin to stall across the southern portions of the area.
12Z CAMs still are not indicating much thunderstorm redevelopment
Saturday afternoon, but given the continued warm, unstable airmass
and weak surface lift, will continue to message the Marginal severe
risk during the afternoon with isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage expected. Models show best chances for redevelopment will
be across our southern half, but it ultimately depends on how the
morning convection evolves and where there are any lingering
boundaries to help initiate convection.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

The biggest changes for this forecast package is for the Sat night
period. Went above NBM for the evening as Euro influence is
looking to deteriorate convection too soon after sunset Sat
evening. As we are getting more into hires territory, will keep
some pops in the SRN half through 6z with 2nd wave Sat evening
along the sagging boundary. A 3rd wave is possible after midnight
into Sun for more storm activity with the highest chances here
across the N. After that boundary gets pushed NWD with a break in
the action over C AL as most of convection should go N of us.
Then Tue afternoon into Wed convection returns again ahead of
another frontal system.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into
Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across
Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the
northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances
coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward
into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging
a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a
result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s
to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest
days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently
projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

Ongoing convection well to central Alabama`s north and northwest
will the focus of attention for aviation over the next 12 to 18
hours. This activity is expected to expand a bit more in coverage
as it tries to make progress toward the south overnight.
Conditions for most spots will be VFR through at least 06Z. After
that time, some model data suggests some stratus development ahead
of the convection arrival. Given the 5 to 10 knot wind, visibility
shouldn`t be an issue, and the winds should also help to keep
ceilings above 1000 ft. The strength of the thunderstorms should
be on the decrease when they arrive into the I-20 corridor around
09Z-10Z, and they very well may never make it to MGM. After the
morning early morning convection ends, and the stratus burns off
and lifts mid to late morning, VFR conditions are once again
indicated for the remainder of the forecast.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry trend continues this afternoon. Minimum RH values will be
the 40s south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph.
Rain enters the area tonight across the north with rain chances
continuing off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should
remain above 45 percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  87  64  85 /  70  20  50  70
Anniston    69  87  66  85 /  50  30  40  60
Birmingham  69  87  68  85 /  60  30  40  60
Tuscaloosa  71  88  69  88 /  50  40  50  50
Calera      71  87  69  87 /  40  30  50  50
Auburn      70  87  69  87 /  10  30  30  40
Montgomery  71  90  69  91 /  10  30  30  30
Troy        70  90  69  91 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION.../61/