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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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562 FXUS64 KBMX 301208 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 708 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024 The heat will be evident today as we remain muggy and temperatures will climb in the middle 90s. Right now feels like temperatures are forecast to be between 105 and 109, so will continue the Heat Advisory through 7 PM. As for rain coverage, we are already seeing scattered showers south of I-85 this morning. This will only help keep dewpoints up in the southeast, but may keep temperatures a touch below the north. Meanwhile an outflow boundary from a front to our northwest is pushing southward. This will bring isolated rain showers to the north just before sunrise. Both of these areas should dissipate but leave plenty of boundaries around for the day. Coverage by the afternoon into the evening should be fairly high once again for late June. Look for highs in the low to middle 90s. By tonight the frontal boundary will be almost to Alabama and continue to slide south through the night. Meanwhile a trough will be along the Gulf Coast. Lingering showers and storms will be possible across the area early and then shift to the south and east as the front actually pushes through the area. This will provide drier air to at least the northern third of the area by sunrise. As we move into the day on Monday, rain will be limited to the front itself that should be near the I-85 corridor by daybreak. The front slows and eventually stalls just south of this. Depending on exactly how far south it works will increase or decrease the rain chances across the southeast in the afternoon. We may wind up needing a Heat Advisory in the far southeast Monday, but will hold off and see where the boundary is later this afternoon and evening. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024 Key message: - Heat and humidity will build through the week with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across much of Central Alabama by the time the holiday weekend arrives. A strong subtropical ridge will meander across the Southeast through the rest of the week, resulting in continued mainly above normal temperatures and keeping diurnal convection from becoming too widespread. At the surface, a 1025mb high moving eastward into the Mid-Atlantic will cause a "cool" air damming wedge to build down the East Coast. Lingering higher dew points will push westward from Georgia in advance of the wedge front putting an end to the temporary humidity reprieve. With low-level southeasterly flow and weak isentropic lift a couple showers or a storms will be possible in our southeast counties Monday night. The wedge arrives on Tuesday with noticeable easterly winds. It will keep highs in portions of East Alabama in the 80s, while West Alabama remains hot with heat indices just under 105. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible with sufficient low-level moisture, but very dry air aloft should limit coverage and think NBM PoPs are too high. The wedge weakens by Wednesday, and expect gradually warming temperatures and heat indices through the rest of the week with coverage of areas with 105+ degree heat indices increasing through the week. Expect just isolated to widely scattered showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Friday into Saturday a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop due to a trough in the westerlies, potentially resulting in an increasing coverage of convection. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024 Any fog/low clouds will dissipate by 13/14z then showers and storms will develop after 18z. Coverage will be scattered so went with prob30 from 21z to 2z, with VCSH after 18z. Drier air filters in after 12z from the north, but until it does MVFR ceilings will possible through 12z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A humid air mass will remain in place today with scattered to numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama, and 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday. Winds generally remain light Sunday, and become northerly Monday at 5 to 8mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 69 91 67 / 60 20 0 0 Anniston 94 72 92 71 / 60 30 10 10 Birmingham 95 73 93 72 / 60 30 0 0 Tuscaloosa 95 73 92 69 / 60 30 0 0 Calera 95 74 93 72 / 60 40 0 0 Auburn 93 75 93 73 / 60 40 20 20 Montgomery 95 75 95 74 / 60 40 20 10 Troy 93 73 95 72 / 60 40 30 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...16