813
FXUS64 KBMX 060008
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

Despite high PWATS across the area, the clouds and lack of
enhanced rainfall is limiting the flood potential across the
southeast. Have opted to go ahead and remove some counties from
the flood watch, with the others ending at 7 pm. Also lowered PoPs
to better account for the overall trends. No big changes to
Wednesday as the main focus moves eastward, trending back to more
normal PoPs, while temperatures remain a few degrees below normal
with the added cloud coverage,

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

By this afternoon, highs look to be a bit warmer than yesterday
but still well below normal given a persistent low cloud deck
associated with the wedge. The southerly low-level flow does allow
some surface-based instability to develop in our southeast
counties. This combined with PWATs of 2-2.2 inches would be
conducive for heavy rainfall rates, though outside of urban areas
many of those counties are not very flood-prone. If some of the
heavier rain/instability can make it up to I-85 and northward,
then more of a flash flooding threat could evolve in more flood-
prone counties such as Lee and Chambers. Will maintain the current
watch given this potential even though the probabilities are in
the low to medium range. NBM PoPs may be too high across the
northern half of the area based on the latest HREF guidance and
later updates may be needed.

The trough axis moves eastward and weakens on Wednesday, with
highest rain chances once again in the southeast counties. PWATs
will be dropping, only approaching 2 inches in Barbour County, so
we should trend back towards more routine summer convection. The
low cloud deck should erode from west to east by afternoon as the
wedge weakens some, but the easterly winds will still result in
below normal high temperatures.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

No big changes in the extended as we remain in weak troughing.
Expect some minor tweaks in the day to day runs as the extended
becomes the short term. On a whole we will get back into a late
summer pattern with warming temperatures and increased heat
indices to near 100.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through the rest of the
week and into Saturday, downstream of a strong mid-level
anticyclone over New Mexico. Some guidance tries to close off a
weak upper low. The higher PWATs/better deep layer moisture will
push southeast of the area, but still be sufficient along with the
weak troughing for scattered diurnal convection. Weak wedging will
help keep highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas. Ridging
building over the western Atlantic will result in temperatures
getting back to normal in the Sunday/Monday timeframe, with heat
indices getting back into the low 100s.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

Shower possibilities remain for a couple of hours at AUO,
otherwise convection is done for today for TAF sites. More low
stratus cigs are expected for tonight into Wed. Most are MVFR or
will be over the next couple of hours. Then, IFR-LIFR will filter
in from E to W from ~4-8z. Cigs should improve back to MVFR by
~15-17z from W to E. Cigs should slowly improve to VFR in the late
afternoon after 21z. Did include a mention of late afternoon
convection at AUO after 21z. Not confident enough for other site
with activity more isolated to pinpoint as main axis shifts EWD
some for Wed.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused
on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be
light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  85  67  87 /  10  20  20  30
Anniston    69  84  68  85 /  20  20  20  30
Birmingham  69  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  30
Tuscaloosa  71  88  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Calera      70  85  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
Auburn      71  82  69  84 /  50  30  20  40
Montgomery  71  87  71  87 /  20  20  20  40
Troy        71  86  69  85 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Barbour-Chambers-Lee-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16/32/JDavis
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...08