297
FXUS64 KBMX 052301
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 600 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2024

The consensus of the short term models are bringing showers and
storms a touch further north into Central Alabama. Went ahead and
increased PoPs to areas north of I-85, but south of I-20. May need
to adjust with the 00z model consensus, but the current forecast
is in more in line with the CAMS output versus the blended
models. It will still be more of typical hit and miss summertime
pattern on Sunday, even though we are in October.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2024

Central Alabama is sandwiched between low to mid-level ridging
centered over the Midsouth and inverted troughing over the Gulf of
Mexico. There`s a moisture gradient over the area characterized by
dry air across the northern two-thirds with deeper moisture present
in the far south. Calm conditions are expected overnight with
lows in the 60s. Synoptically, there won`t be much change in the
pattern tomorrow. Higher rain chances remain to our south, but
there`s a small chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in
the far southeast. Otherwise, sunny to partly cloudy with highs in
the 80s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2024

A dry front is forecast to move across our area on Monday as an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes region and a surface
high advances across the Midwest. The southward extent of the
trough axis should guide TC Milton across Florida on Wednesday,
with impacts remaining to our south based on the current NHC
forecast. This weather pattern looks to leave us with fair weather
conditions through the week with cooler air arriving behind
Monday`s front.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2024

Overall VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Sfc winds
are from the east-northeast at 5 to 8 kts. Some patchy fog may
develop near MGM around sunrise based on the weak low level
motion, however, clouds may also prevent it from developing.
Continued to not mention in the TAF at this time due to low
confidence. On Sunday, there will be some added moisture that may
result in isolated showers or storms across the south, with
impacts possibly at MGM. Chances are low at 20% so will leave out
of the TAFs for now.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There will be a few showers possible in the south and east on Sunday
afternoon, more of the typical hit and miss activity with temperatures
in the upper 80s. Rain-free weather should begin on Monday.  Afternoon
minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical thresholds, but
could begin to reach the lower to middle 30s early next week for
parts of the area. 20-foot winds should be from the east over the
weekend, averaging less than 10 mph, becoming northerly to
northeasterly next week again generally less than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  86  60  84 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    63  86  61  85 /   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  66  86  63  84 /   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  88  63  85 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      66  86  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      67  82  62  86 /  10  20   0   0
Montgomery  67  83  63  88 /  10  20  10   0
Troy        67  79  62  85 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...16