335
FXUS64 KBMX 272311
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
611 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025

 - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms across all
   of Central Alabama late Sunday night into Monday with a threat
   of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. The
   magnitude of the tornado threat is uncertain, but there is
   potential for it to increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025

A thin layer of high-level clouds are streaming across the area this
afternoon, associated with mid-level shortwave troughing
extending across Texas into Louisiana. A deep-layer ridge axis
will shift across the area this afternoon through tonight, so
stable conditions are present with warm temperatures expected as
heights rise and low- level flow takes on more of a south to
southwesterly heading. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
both today and tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds. With flow
shifting to the south, lows tonight will not be as cool as
previous nights. Most locations will remain in the 50s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025

No major changes needed in the long term forecast. The main
concern remains timing and evolution of the system Sunday through
Monday. There have been some shifts in timing, indicating the
frontal boundary may still be moving through Central AL Monday
afternoon, so severe threat may continue through at least part of
the day on Monday.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025

A southern stream shortwave will continue to drift eastward along
the Gulf Coast, eventually moving into Central Alabama Saturday
and Saturday night. This will eventually bring high (60-70%) rain
chances, but there is spread in the guidance regarding how quickly
it moves in, probably related to how convection evolves over Texas
the next couple days. There won`t be any surface low with this
system, and while there are low chances for rumbles of thunder
Saturday night, severe storms are not expected given weak
instability and bulk shear. On Sunday, temperatures should warm up
nicely as dry air aloft associated with an elevated mixed layer
(EML) moves overhead. Guidance does indicate some scattered
showers and storms during the day on Sunday. These could be
strong given steep mid-level lapse rates, but deep layer shear
supportive of an organized severe threat holds off until Sunday
night.

Guidance continues to show variability in the details of pieces of
vorticity ejecting out of the northeast Pacific system eastward
across the western and central CONUS. For example the latest GFS
has a quicker shortwave lifting across the Midwest Sunday, while
the ECMWF has a slower, negative tilt wave across the Ozarks and
Mid-South Sunday evening. Both hint at another shortwave rounding
the base of the trough Monday morning. These different evolutions
have ramifications for the placement of one or more surface lows
and associated LLJ response and surface wind direction. What is
known is that a well-established warm sector will be in place
across the Southeast ahead of the front with mid-60s dew points
aided by Saturday`s primer wave. This along with steep mid-level
lapse rates associated with an EML will contribute to MUCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg up to 2000 J/kg, even during the
overnight period. Upper-air pattern and height falls along with
deep layer shear will be favorable for supercells to move across
the area after midnight Sunday night, probably eventually becoming
more linear by Monday morning.

The positive tilt orientation of the front could actually aid in
supercells having more "room to roam" in the pre-frontal warm
sector. Parameters will be favorable for large hail, damaging
winds, and at least isolated tornadoes. The magnitude of the
tornado threat is where the uncertainty lies. Looking at cluster
analyses, there is very little overlap between the EPS and GEFS
members while the GEPS members lie somewhere in between. The EPS
members indicate stronger 500mb and 850mb winds than the GEFS
members, as well as more backed surface winds. Also, the
deterministic ECMWF indicated a more upright (north-south)
convection orientation, with convection appearing to initiate on a
pre-frontal trough. These mesoscale details will need to be
monitored closely, as they will determine whether there is more of
an isolated tornado threat vs. a more concerning overnight strong
tornado threat.

Tuesday looks like a quiet weather day behind the front. Another
severe threat may be lurking in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe,
but ensemble spread is substantial at that time range.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue through Friday with Min RHs around 20-30%
on Friday. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to move through
the area Saturday through Monday with increasing winds Sunday
night as a frontal boundary moves through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     51  81  57  78 /   0  10   0  20
Anniston    53  81  58  79 /   0   0   0  20
Birmingham  58  80  61  77 /   0  10   0  30
Tuscaloosa  56  82  59  79 /   0  10   0  50
Calera      56  80  60  78 /   0  10   0  30
Auburn      54  80  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  55  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  30
Troy        54  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../44/