Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
104 FXUS64 KBMX 061138 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 638 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 153 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 Not much to key on in the short term. I will say that there`s been at least a few thunderstorms that have developed each of the last 3 days, despite model blend based guidance strongly supporting a lack of such development. Being given the same guidance again today, but will include a mention of slight chance of thunderstorms with a 10 percent POP for some of the area this afternoon. Otherwise, we`ll have to deal with the hot and humid pattern for the foreseeable future, with afternoon heat indices tickling triple digits. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 Looks like the highest POPs in the upcoming work week will come at the end, namely Thursday and/or Friday. That`s when an upper level shortwave is forecast to scoot across mid-south/southeast states in an increasingly active northwest upper flow regime. /61/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Only isolated SHRA/TSRA development is expected across western Alabama and will not be mentioned in the TAFs at this time. Scattered CU this afternoon will lead to clear skies overnight with light and variable winds. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Aside from isolated afternoon storms, a majority dry forecast is expected across central Alabama through Monday. Thunderstorm chances will increase through the remainder of the week. RH levels will remain well above critical thresholds, with generally light winds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 70 95 71 / 10 0 20 10 Anniston 93 71 93 71 / 10 0 10 10 Birmingham 94 73 93 73 / 10 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 95 73 94 74 / 10 0 20 10 Calera 93 73 93 73 / 10 0 20 10 Auburn 93 73 93 73 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 94 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 10 Troy 94 71 93 72 / 10 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...56/GDG