998
FXUS64 KBMX 191054
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, with
the apex of the ridge shifting further east by today. This will
allow for some limited moisture return into the region, resulting
in a slight climb to afternoon RH values. However, rain chances
will remain limited until the start of the new workweek.
Temperatures will continue to run above average, with highs today
and tomorrow remaining in the mid to upper-80s. Otherwise, look
for overnight lows to range in the low to mid-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

A shortwave trough and associated surface low will lift
northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday night and
Monday. The trailing cold front will make it into northwest
Alabama Monday, stalling across North Alabama through Tuesday as
it becomes parallel to the deep layer flow, and eventually
dissipating. The front and associated increased moisture will
serve as a focus for showers and storms Monday through Tuesday.
Some strong storms will be possible on Monday with 0-6 km bulk
shear values around 25-30 kts and mid-level lapse rates around
6.5 C/km. This will be sufficient for some multicell/pulse storms
with small hail and gusty winds. Potential for an isolated severe
storm is non-zero, but risk of organized severe storms is low
given the modest shear, decreasing flow through the column during
the day on Monday, and weak forcing. Through the rest of the week,
generally weak quasi-zonal flow aloft will be in place across
Central Alabama as mid-level ridging weakens near the Bahamas.
Sufficient moisture and potential for MCVs/convectively enhanced
shortwaves coming out of the Southern Plains will result in
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times, in a May-like
pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

Fog and MVFR CIGS continue to expand across the region, but should
begin to mix out by 19/16z. Once that occurs, VFR conditions are
anticipated for the remainder of the TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend. Moisture will
increase slightly with RHs in the 35-45% range with southerly
20ft wind gusts around 15 MPH. Rain chances will increase early
Monday morning as a cold front moves into the region. This
boundary will stall across the area, keeping rain chances in the
forecast through the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    87  62  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  65  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  63  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      86  63  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      86  63  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  88  63  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        88  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../44/