556
FXUS64 KBMX 101035
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
435 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025

1. Winter Storm conditions are expected to develop quickly this
morning across the northern third of counties in Central Alabama,
potentially lasting through early this afternoon. Significant
impacts are expected due to accumulating sleet and snow, followed by
freezing rain this afternoon. The morning commute will be heavily
impacted, and driving conditions may be dangerous or impossible.

2. Winter weather impacts will also be felt farther south within the
Winter Weather Advisory, primarily through this morning. The morning
commute will be impacted, with the potential for hazardous driving
conditions due to accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
In the Advisory area, temperatures are expected to rise above
freezing this afternoon as precipitation becomes all rain.

3. Slick and hazardous road conditions are expected to continue
through Saturday morning as temperatures fall below freezing once
again Friday night. Any lingering ground moisture is expected to
refreeze.

Right on time, winter weather has begun across Central Alabama, with
heavy bands of mixed precipitation now on radar stretching west to
east from Central Mississippi to eastern Alabama.
Widespread reports of sleet and snow with a few ice covered roads
have been reported over the last couple of hours along and north of
the I-20 corridor as dynamic cooling has now taken full effect.
We can expect deteriorating road conditions over the next few hours
as temperatures dynamically cool below freezing and accumulations of
snow and sleet start to add up. Haleyville has already dropped below
freezing with snow already falling. Counties within the Winter Storm
Warning remain in play to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet
accumulations, with freezing rain also possible as the warm nose
takes over from the southwest later this afternoon. Travel is highly
discouraged, and may become impossible north of Birmingham and along
the I-22 and I-59 corridors. The morning commute will be heavily
impacted.

Areas along and south of the I-20 corridor within the Winter Weather
Advisory remain the biggest question marks in terms of how long
impacts may be felt before temperatures are expected to rise above
freezing by noon today. With heavy mixed precipitation now falling
from Pickens eastward to Randolph Counties, that will certainly keep
temperatures cool enough for a longer period of time, with more
significant impacts to driving conditions. We`ll have to watch radar
and reports coming in this morning very closely, as the Advisory may
need to be upgraded to a warning if more significant impacts become
realized. Farther to the south, minimal impacts are anticipated
within southwest counties, as temperatures are above freezing in the
mid 30s with all rain reported. With the best forcing now to the
north of those locations, consideration will likely be made to
remove Sumter, Greene, Hale, and Perry Counties a little earlier
from the Advisory this morning.

The surface low will continue to move eastward along the Gulf Coast
through the day today, with most high-res guidance members
continuing to indicate temperatures will continue to rise above
freezing for most of Central Alabama by this afternoon. Freezing
rain accumulations will be a concern before temperatures rise, as
the warm nose aloft becomes too warm to support any frozen precip
making it to the surface. Counties across the far north, northeast
and east may see the greatest freezing rain accumulations before all
is said and done. Moisture will finally move out by this evening and
overnight as drier air moves in aloft from the west. Black ice is
then expected to become a concern overnight as temperatures fall
back below freezing.

56/GDG

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR WINTER WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025

We continue to closely monitor the mesoscale conditions here after
midnight as precipitation continues to rapidly spread across
Central Alabama. Temperatures remain above freezing, except for
Haleyville that has dropped to the freezing mark. We started out
the night warmer than guidance was previously indicating, putting
us a little behind in terms of an opportunity for dynamic
cooling. Southwestern-most counties are currently observing a mix
of rain and sleet with temperatures in the mid 30s and dewpoints
at or just below the 32 degree mark. While we still have a window
of opportunity for temperatures to drop at or just below the
freezing mark in these areas, that window seems to be closing at
the current time. Farther to the north and east, mid 30s are being
observed in most locations with still very dry dewpoint readings
in the teens. The easterly wedge, although not especially
pronounced, is certainly making a presence known, and keeping
drier air advecting westward into eastern and northeastern
counties. As the atmospheric column continues to moisten through
the morning and dynamic cooling commences, the supply of the
cooler and drier air from the east will offer a better opportunity
for temperatures to remain below freezing longer, especially
along and east of I-65.

Our far northern tier of counties remain in play for significant
winter weather impacts due to accumulations of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain. Numerous reports of sleet have already come in over
the last hour along the I-22 corridor, and that should continue
until dynamic cooling takes over and we likely have a changeover
to all snow. We still have plenty of room to cool with Haleyville,
Vinemont (Cullman), and Gadsden observing dewpoints in the upper
teens at this hour. We will continue to monitor observation trends
through the overnight.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 418 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025

Dry weather will be in place with surface ridging on Sunday. A
front will move through Sunday night into Monday. It should be dry
for the most part across C AL. There could be just enough
moisture for a little cold rain in the far S closer to the coast.
Keeping this precip all rain for now. Otherwise, the remainder of
the extended looks very chilly and dry.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025

Flight conditions will begin to deteriorate within the next few
hours as a system brings a wintry mix of SN and PL with
potentially some FZRA. This will primarily affect the northern
terminals, especially BHM/ASN/ANB while impacts may be less at
MGM. However, visibilities will be reduced through a majority of
this TAF period once precipitation begins, and ceilings will also
gradually drop through the morning hours. As such, our VFR
conditions will soon be replaced by IFR/MVFR as precip is
beginning to approach a few of the terminals. Wintry precip
should begin to transition to RA by 14-17Z with RA ending area-
wide by 00-03Z. Winds will shift to the west late in this period
as the system passes by.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A storm system moving across the Gulf Coast has brought increased
moisture and a wintry mix and rain early this morning. This wintry
mix of precipitation will slowly switch over to all rain as the area
slowly warms during today from west to east. All of the
precipitation should clear out during the evening as the system
pushes eastward. 20 foot winds from the east southwest will increase
to 8 to 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph today. A front will move
through this evening bringing dry conditions and light northwest
winds for Saturday. Relative humidity values on Saturday should
remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     33  28  36  14 / 100  60   0   0
Anniston    34  29  37  17 / 100  70   0   0
Birmingham  34  29  36  19 / 100  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  36  30  39  21 / 100  20   0   0
Calera      35  30  38  21 / 100  40   0   0
Auburn      36  31  39  22 /  90  80   0   0
Montgomery  40  32  41  22 / 100  70   0   0
Troy        46  32  41  22 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-St. Clair-Walker-Winston.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following counties: Bibb-Clay-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-Talladega-
Tuscaloosa.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following counties: Autauga-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-Elmore-Greene-
Hale-Lee-Perry-Sumter-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...86/Martin