909
FXUS64 KBMX 071054
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
554 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms is forecast for
   Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening, with increasing
   confidence of a widespread damaging wind threat. Wind gusts of
   60 to 70mph will be the primary hazard as a line of storms
   moves across the area, with a chance for a few discrete storms
   with large hail to develop ahead of the line.

 - A level 1 to 2 chance for strong to severe storms also exists
   in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as additional clusters of
   showers and storms develops to the west/northwest and moves
   across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds will be
   the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning paints a fairly active picture
across the southern CONUS. Convection from earlier this evening can
be seen moving off to our east as our next round of storms tracks
across the Southern Plains. Ahead of our next convective threat, we
could see some patchy fog across the region. Probabilities are low
so expect any fog to pretty localized.

Our threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will ramp up by mid
day as a stout H5 shortwave guides our next MCS across the
southeast. Today`s timing lines up right with our peak heating which
will allow for a highly unstable environment. Model soundings hint
at CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, a decent shear.
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg are also indicative of strong damaging
winds, especially with any bowing segments of the line. In addition
to the MCS threat, we could see isolated thunderstorms develop this
afternoon ahead of the line as we exceed our convective temps. SPC
has maintained an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for the northern half
of the state and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for the southern half
of Central AL. We will also need to monitor for our flash flooding
threat as PWATs near 2". If any areas see repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall, we could see a localized flood threat develop. This wave
of convection is expected to be east of us by 00Z or shortly after.

Latest CAMs are hinting at a secondary line of showers and
thunderstorms moving through early Sunday morning as a lingering
outflow boundary sinks south as a H85 vort max swings through. There
will likely be enough instability lingering to support thunderstorms
along this secondary line but we will need to see just how
overworked the atmosphere is after the first MCS. A weak cold front
is likely to stall somewhere across the state on Sunday, leading to
continued chances for showers and storms to the south where moisture
convergence is maximized and drier conditions to the north as drier
air works in. SPC has continued with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for our far southeastern counties and a Marginal risk (level 1 out
of 5) for the remainder of the region with the exception of our
northwestern areas.

Similar to yesterday, we will need to monitor our heat risk today.
High temps today in the upper 80s to low 90s with humid conditions
will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to near 102. This will
promote a moderate heat risk across southern portions of Central AL
this afternoon.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

The active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming week.

Another round of storms is expected Monday as a shortwave moves
through the region during the afternoon and evening. This will push
another frontal boundary into Central AL, providing the forcing for
thunderstorm activity. Instability will be in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range through the afternoon and evening hours with Lapse Rates
around 7 C/Km. This will support strong to severe storms capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail.

The boundary becomes weaker Monday night into Tuesday and stalls out
across the area Tuesday through Wednesday as the main upper level
trough shifts to our east. Ridging builds in Tuesday through
Thursday, though the warm/moist airmass will support diurnal
thunderstorm activity through the end of the week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

VFR conditions are in place at all terminals with the exception of
TCL where some localized MVFR fog has developed. We may see some
additional patchy fog for the next hour or two. Maintained TEMPO
groups for TSRA this afternoon/evening as a line of thunderstorms
moves through. Timing looks to be roughly 21Z-01Z. Damaging winds
and large hail are the main concerns this afternoon. A secondary
line of showers/storms looks to swing through between 06-12Z.
Added another TEMPO group to account for this activity as the last
several runs of various CAM guidance continue to show this line
developing.


NOTE: MGM comes have been stable over the last several hours so
have removed the mention of AMD NOT SKED. 95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of rain and thunderstorms are expected for Central
AL. Min RHs will remain well above critical values. Winds will be
gusty in proximity to thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  69  85  65 /  70  70  80  20
Anniston    87  70  83  68 /  60  60  80  30
Birmingham  89  71  84  69 /  60  60  80  30
Tuscaloosa  90  72  86  70 /  60  60  80  30
Calera      88  72  84  69 /  50  50  80  40
Auburn      89  73  84  70 /  50  40  80  50
Montgomery  91  74  87  70 /  50  40  80  60
Troy        92  73  89  69 /  50  30  70  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...95/Castillo