170
FXUS64 KBMX 010749
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
249 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Currently the frontal boundary is still north of the area. This is
confirmed with dewpoints still the 70s across northern Alabama. We do
see a northerly flow across the area, so the mean trough is already
through. As we move through the day, the front will slide south. We
should see the dewpoints lower across the north, but remain near the
mid 70s in the south as we begin to warm up. This will result in
heat indices increasing to 105 to 108 in the southeast. Went ahead
and issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon. We could see some
isolated to scattered convection in the southeast along the edge of
the trough but ahead of the front. If a storm can develop it will
have the potential to be strong with gusty winds possible as well as
heavy rainfall.  The front stalls near the I-85 corridor and then
begins to lift back to the north overnight. Rain showers will remain
possible south of the front through the night. At the same time the
easterly flow will increase and low clouds will begin to infiltrate
in from the east and move across eastern Alabama and into central
Alabama by daybreak.

As we move into Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift back to just
south of the I-20 corridor, so rain chances will increase from south
to north during the day. With the clouds and increase in rain there
will be a temperature gradient across the state with upper 80s in
the east to mid to upper 90s in the west. Will need to monitor the
trends of the dewpoints, but right the majority of the west remains
just below 105 for the heat index so will not issue yet for
Tuesday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Key messages:

- Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday
  weekend with heat indices at or above 105.

- Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected
  Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick
  in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday.

The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama
Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards
the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough
over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered
diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105
especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the
southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough
begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then
stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for
an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a
pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the
south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will
result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on
Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most
likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large
majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered
westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well
removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC
forecasts.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Expect VFR at most sites for the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
the north, less than 3 kts overnight and then increase to 7 to 9
kts by 15z. Winds relaxes again after 00z. May see some low
clouds build toward the area but remain out of our area through
6z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass temporarily moves in today with RH values in the
30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central
Alabama, and the 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum
RH values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday and
Wednesday. 20ft winds will be around 8 to 10 mph, from the north
today and the southeast on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms
will be limited to far southeast Central Alabama today and the
southern half of Central Alabama on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  68  92  70 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    93  71  89  73 /   0  10  20  10
Birmingham  94  72  92  75 /   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  93  70  95  76 /   0   0  10  10
Calera      95  72  93  75 /   0   0  20  10
Auburn      95  74  86  73 /  20  20  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  90  73 /  10  10  50  20
Troy        97  73  88  72 /  20  20  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-
Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16