378
FXUS64 KBMX 092045
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025

A 500mb low will move east from Texas to Alabama through the
tonight and early Monday, while a surface low will move east
slightly sooner, moving through the state in the late evening and
early night.

This afternoon, plenty of moisture and warm air advection will
take place with mid and upper level flow from the southwest.
Clouds will continue to remain overcast, with PW values near max
for this time of year and saturated profile soundings. Scattered
to widespread rain will continue through the day, with scattered
activity in the late afternoon as the surface low moves over the
state and upper forcing weakens slightly. Tried to show this trend
in the forecast, though exact placement and timing of any areas of
lower coverage will be difficult to determine.

The northern two thirds of the area can see light to moderate
rainfall, with training likely. Though there is high chance of
high frequency showers over these areas, rainfall totals are
expected to be too light at this time for impacts from any
accumulations. In the southern third of the area, through the
afternoon and evening, CAMs are holding on to a decent chance of
CAPE values up to 800 to 1000 J/kg, with thunderstorms likely in
these areas. There are pockets of 0-1 km shear between 20 and 30
kts, so will advertise thunderstorms with a few becoming strong,
though the severe potential looks low at this time.

Overnight, as the low moves across the state, shear will increase,
with 0-1 km values approaching 40 kts. Instability should be
minimal though upper levels will support some forcing. Scattered
to widespread rain should continue through the night, and into the
early morning. By sunrise, the surface low will be moving east of
the state, with low and mid northerly flow prevailing. This will
bring dry and cold air into the state, with PW values decreasing
quickly into the morning. Though there is a high chance of light
rain showers through the morning, intensity should weaken as the
greatest focus of rain moves west to east. By early afternoon,
most if not all rain should be east of the area, with skies slow
to clear behind the low.

Temperatures will struggle to reach warmer than the low 50s in
the north and the low 60s in the south. Overnight, lows are
expected to drop to the lower 40s in the north to the upper 40s in
the south. There is a low chance temperatures may not reach that
low with the amount of cloud cover over the state. Timing of the
northerly flow will be a large factor in how much cold air makes
it in overnight. Monday, with the northwest areas expected to
clear faster than the southwest areas, there is a greater chance
for a longer period of warming in these areas. The temperatures
should actually be higher in the northwest, in the low to mid 60s
Monday, with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s in the southwest.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025

Rain free conditions are expected for the first part of the
extended from Mon night through Wed evening with surface ridging
over the Gulf Coast. An upper shortwave will dig over the TX
Panhandle on Wed and move EWD across OK. Om Wed night it should
continue across AR into W TN. The shortwave is expected to weaken
as it continues EWD across TN on Thu. Activity around the base of
the shortwave in combination with a weakening and EWD nudging
surface ridge will allow for shower activity late Wed night into
Thu before the shortwave pushes E of the area. A few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out as well.

There will be another break Thu night into Fri before our next
system moves across AL over the weekend. Overall moisture will
increase during that time with onshore low level flow ahead of the
system. Precip chances return Fri night ahead of a front, but it
will be well removed from the main upper system that will trek
from KS to MN Fri into early Sat. However, showers and tstorms
will be possible across the NW half of C AL. The better instability
in this time frame will be across the MS River Valley and closer
to the upper low.

By Sat afternoon and night ahead of the front, instability should
have increased enough with the addition of surface frontal forcing
to give us a chance of some severe storms. There are still some
timing and intensity differences this far out between models, but
with guidance hinting at dew points getting into the 60s ahead of
a front, it is definitely in the realm of possibility. Latest
guidance trends are indicating the system a tad faster exiting
the far ERN counties by the end of the extended on Sun morning
(daytime).

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025

Monday night through Wednesday.

An upper low will be positioned over Southeast Georgia and Southern
South Carolina Monday night while broad mid-level ridging will be in
place over the Central Plains. Surface high pressure will be
centered across the Northwest Gulf while lower pressure will be off
the South Carolina Coastline. Broad mid-level ridging will persist
over much of the Southern Plains and will build further eastward
over the area on Tuesday while surface high pressure becomes
centered just south of the Central Gulf Coast Region.

Expect decreasing clouds Monday night followed by fair skies Tuesday
through Wednesday with some increasing clouds from the west late
Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the mid
30s far northeast to readings around 40 south with highs from near
70 far east to the mid 70s southwest. Lows Wednesday morning will be
in the low to mid 40s areawide while high temperatures will be in
the low to mid 70s across the area.

Wednesday night through Thursday night.

A mid-level trough will approach the area from the west Wednesday
evening and will support low to medium (20-40%) chances for showers
Wednesday night across the western third of the area, followed by
similar rain chances across all of Central Alabama on Thursday.
There will be a low (20-30%) chance for a few thunderstorms
generally across the southern half of the state on Thursday as well.
The activity will become more confined to the southeast counties
Thursday afternoon and evening hours as the shortwave trough moves
east of the area and shortwave ridging builds eastward into the area
from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region. Lows Thursday
morning will range from the lower 40s north and east to the mid 40s
southwest followed by highs in the low to mid 70s areawide. Lows
Friday morning will range from the mid 40s far east to the lower 50s
west and central.

Friday through Saturday.

Mid-level ridging will amplify over the Eastern portion of the
country Friday in response to a robust upper trough that will move
east over the Four Corners States. Impressive cyclogenesis continues
to be progged to develop across the Front Range of the Rockies
during the day on Friday as the associated Pacific Cold Front
advances east across West Texas and warm front extends from the
deepening surface low southeast into East Tennessee and the
Carolinas. The trough will take on more of a negative tilt as it
moves northeast over the Central Plains and Midwest with time later
in the day. The upper low will become centered over Southeastern
Minnesota as the parent surface low undergoes occlusion and the
Pacific Front nears the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region
Saturday morning.

Despite the showers and storms that are forecast to affect the local
area Wednesday into Thursday, no significant low-level features are
depicted that moved through the local area and as a result, little
change to the airmass is forecast to occur.
Available global numerical guidance has come into much better
alignment compared to the previous days with favorable wind shear
along with a broad open warm sector with highs Friday ranging from
the lower 70s in the higher elevations east to readings around 80
southwest to lows from the mid 50s east to the low 60s southwest
Saturday morning and high temperatures from the lower 70s northwest
on Saturday to near 80 far southeast. Several necessary ingredients
for severe storms are forecast to be present during this time frame,
but further increases in confidence will depend upon continued multi-
model run-to-run continuity and evaluation of the critical details
that will emerge as we advance closer to the event time horizon.

Clouds will increase from the northwest through the afternoon hours
on Friday with low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the northwest half of the state late Friday
afternoon through Friday night followed by medium to high (50-70%)
chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday
morning across the area.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025

Activity will be scattered to widespread through the afternoon and
evening. There could be breaks, but timing and coverage are
difficult to determine with much confidence. Mid level flow from
the southwest will bring plenty of moisture and lowering ceilings.
Overnight, IFR ceilings are expected to develop, lasting through
the morning. Dry air will move northwest to southeast through
Monday, with clearing expected at the end or after the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers with a few thunderstorms will continue to affect the area
now through Monday morning, followed by drier conditions during
the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity percent values Monday
afternoon are forecast to drop from the middle 20s in the far
northwest counties to the upper 30s near the Interstate 20
corridor with northwest winds between 5 to 8 mph where values are
the lowest. Values increase as you go southeast across the
forecast area. Rain chances return late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     44  66  36  73 /  80  40   0   0
Anniston    45  63  38  74 /  80  60   0   0
Birmingham  46  65  41  72 /  80  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  48  67  40  75 /  80  30   0   0
Calera      48  64  42  74 /  80  50   0   0
Auburn      47  58  42  72 /  80  70   0   0
Montgomery  49  64  40  73 /  80  60   0   0
Troy        49  61  41  73 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....08/05
AVIATION...24