Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
539 FXUS64 KBMX 040036 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 714 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025 - A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday evening for much of Central Alabama. Periods of heavy, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could cause flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025 The main concern in the short term is our ongoing flash flood threat. We saw excessive rainfall overnight, especially across our northeastern areas. Some of the greatest impacts were seen in Cleburne county where several water rescues were noted. As of writing, we are seeing showers beginning to redevelop across the area, generally along an area where the RAP depicts a low level moisture axis developing. Once again, coverage is expected to increase through the day as instability rises. The exact placement of the heaviest activity later on today remains a bit uncertain. Latest RAP/NAM12 runs hint at the low level convergence axis shifting west as wedge flow nudges further into the state. However, a plume of vorticity rotating around the east side of a H85-H7 low may help keep any activity east of the I-65 corridor...which is more in line with the CAMs. Forecast soundings are indicative of heavy rainfall with any activity that develops. A skinny CAPE profile and a deep warm cloud depth will produce extremely efficient rainfall producers. Storm motions of 5-10 knots will quickly lead to a flash flooding threat, especially with any storm that is able to fully tap into the available atmospheric moisture. WPC maintains a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across much of eastern Central Alabama and a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) across north and western Alabama. Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are likely tonight through Monday as additional bouts of upper level energy rotate through the region. Latest CAMS are hinting at several more inches of rainfall possible near our AL/GA border. The exact placement will depend on just how far west this activity can make it. It`s worth noting that the 00Z HREF LPMM is keying in on isolated amounts over 5" through Monday. With that said, the HREF probabilities for amounts over 5" is roughly 40% so this is something we will need to keep an eye on. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended through 00Z Tuesday. High temps today and tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 70s for those across east Central Alabama as wedge flow scoots in the area. Mid to upper 80s can be expected across our western areas. This setup will allow lows to drop into the mid to upper 60s. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025 An unsettled pattern continues through the long term forecast with continued medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms. The main upper level trough axis will slide east through the work week which will put the heaviest activity to our east. However, mid level impulses will continue to rotate around the eastern periphery of the ridge to our west which will help promote diurnally driven thunderstorms daily. We look to have one last day of "cooler" temps on Tuesday as wedge flow remains in place. By mid week, this feature weakens, resulting in everyone warming back up into the mid to upper 80s daily. Heat indices will remain in check so not anticipating any heat headlines through the week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025 A few showers/tstorms persist past sunset with the best coverage in the W and far S. I have precip mentions in through 3z before convection tapers down. MVFR cigs currently, except for IFR already at AUO are expected to become IFR toward morning. Another pre-dawn wave of shower activity is possible in the E after 9z, and I have a mention at ASN/AUO. Later by morning, activity will spread to include MGM. By afternoon on Mon, TSRA will be possible for the SE at MGM/AUO with a high enough possibility to mention at all sites by 21z. Although some sites in the W may go MVFR during the afternoon, many may stay IFR through the day Mon. It will be an overall cloudy day. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 76 64 79 / 30 30 50 50 Anniston 66 75 66 80 / 40 40 60 70 Birmingham 67 76 67 80 / 20 30 40 50 Tuscaloosa 70 82 69 85 / 30 30 30 50 Calera 68 78 68 82 / 20 40 50 60 Auburn 67 74 69 80 / 60 80 70 80 Montgomery 70 79 70 83 / 50 70 60 80 Troy 69 80 69 83 / 70 80 70 90 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair- Talladega-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...08