Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
643 FXUS64 KBMX 280558 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Persistent northwest flow aloft will continue today and tomorrow with longwave troughing focused along the East Coast. The axis of the trough will slightly shift further east today aligning us with some embedded shortwave energy tracking from the Central Plains into the Southeast. A stalled boundary is also lingering along the Gulf Coast which is acting as a lifting mechanism to support isentropic ascent. Moisture will increase west to east, and our comfortable low humidities will disappear by tomorrow. For today, expect mostly cloudy skies with low chances for showers to arrive across the west this afternoon which will help to moisten up the lower-levels. It will still feel seasonably comfortable today with highs in the upper 70s west to mid 80s east. Moisture and rain chances look to really increase tomorrow as the shortwave moves across the Lower MS River Valley. There is some disagreement within the global models on the strength of the shortwave and where the associated precip axis develops, but high- res modeling is in good agreement on higher coverage of showers across the southern half of the area during the day on Friday. Thunderstorm chances will be low and expect mostly light to moderate rainfall. These conditions will once again help to hold temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Forecast uncertainty increases by the weekend pending the possible development of a weak surface low along the stalled boundary on the Gulf Coast. Some guidance is less bullish with this solution, but expect periods of rain to continue on Saturday for at least the southern half of the forecast area with less certainty across the north. The boundary will finally start to wash out early next week as a stronger shortwave moves into the region from the northwest, but the arrival of this feature will likely maintain some opportunities for rain into next week as its accompanied by a cold front. Temperatures will also remain below average into the long term, but humidity won`t be quite as low as it has been over the last few days. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 High-level clouds are increasing in coverage from the northwest in advance of an approaching shortwave. Ceilings should remain on the higher end through this cycle, so impacts are not expected, but some light showers may reach TCL/EET/BHM by this afternoon. Only minor drops in visibility are expected with that activity. Winds will be light and variable today. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will continue for most of the area today, but moisture will begin increasing from west to east. Expect min RH in the 35-45% range this afternoon, but higher by tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances will also reenter the forecast in the west today, then continue increasing area-wide by tomorrow. Rain chances remain elevated into the weekend and look to be a daily feature heading into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 61 85 64 / 10 20 20 30 Anniston 82 62 83 65 / 10 20 30 40 Birmingham 82 65 83 66 / 10 30 40 40 Tuscaloosa 81 65 80 67 / 30 40 50 40 Calera 81 64 80 66 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 83 66 80 67 / 10 20 50 50 Montgomery 85 66 81 67 / 20 30 60 50 Troy 85 66 80 67 / 10 30 60 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin