Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
659 FXUS64 KBMX 112332 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough moving across the Carolinas as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Increased subsidence and much drier air (down to ~.6" per latest GOES TPW) will lead to a dry forecast through the short term. We will have another cool start Sunday morning with lows dropping back into the low to mid 50s. We add on a degree or two tomorrow as highs settle into the upper 70s to mid 80s. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025 No significant changes needed with this long term forecast update. Everything remains on track with a warming trend kicking in with dry conditions persisting. This will likely lead to worsening drought conditions across Central AL. 95/Castillo Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025 As the trough over the eastern CONUS gradually moves eastward during the upcoming work week, a very prominent 500 mb ridge is expected to develop across the southern CONUS. A warming trend will accompany the expanding ridge, and afternoon temperatures by midweek may be just a few degrees shy of record values. There is no relief in sight from the worsening drought conditions. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025 A VFR forecast for C AL sites is expected for the next 24 hours thanks to E Conus ridging. Light/variable to near calm winds should be noted overnight. During the day with mixing, look for NW-NNW winds 5-9kts. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next week. MinRHs will likely fall into the 30-40 percent range each afternoon. 20 foot winds may approach 10 mph this afternoon. Winds should become lighter for Sunday and Monday. Our Significant Fire Potential remains low through the weekend. Our risk increases to moderate early next week but we should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 49 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 53 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 53 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 52 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 54 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo/87/Grantham AVIATION...08