260
FXUS64 KBMX 011753
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1253 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2024

This afternoon.

A positive-tilted longwave trough extended from over New England
southwest to over the Texas Gulf Coast Region. A surface cold
front extended from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwest
across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-South Region. Strong
and expansive surface high pressure was centered across the
North-Central Plains well to our northwest. Multichannel water
vapor imagery along with the 01/12z BMX sounding depicts
sufficient moisture in the lower levels, generally below 700 mb
beneath a subsidence inversion in the mid levels to support clouds
cover and some shower activity. This environment is expected to
persist locally through the rest of the day.

Expect skies to range from partly cloudy far southeast to mostly
cloudy north and northwest. There will be a small chance for some
shower activity across the northwest portion of the area today.
Winds will be from the north to northwest from 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from around 80 in the higher terrain east
to the mid 80s across the south, southwest and west-central
counties.

Tonight.

The longwave trough will move southeast, extending from over the
Carolina coastline southwest to across the Western Florida
Panhandle. The surface front lags the upper support as it moves
further east overnight, extending from Western New York State
southwest into northern Louisiana.

A persistent pool of low-level moisture ahead of the front will
continue to support partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight with
some isolated shower activity across portions of the area. Winds
will be light from the north at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will
range from around 60 far northwest to the mid 60s across the
southern third of the area.

Wednesday.

The forecast area becomes positioned under a northerly flow aloft
pattern during the day Wednesday with mid-level ridging gradually
building over the Southwest States while a more zonal flow will
develop further to our north. The surface front decelerates and
becomes diffuse with time as it extends from across New England
southwest roughly parallel to the Interstate 59 corridor locally
during the day on Wednesday.

Some drier air aloft will filter into the area during the day
Wednesday from the northwest, resulting in fewer clouds across the
northwest counties later in the day. Partly cloudy skies look to
persist across much of the rest of the area with a chance for a
few showers, generally best near the surface front where surface
convergence will be maximized. Winds will be from the north at 4-8
mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far northwest to
the upper 80s generally near and south of the U.S. Highway 80
corridor.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT TUE OCT 1 2024

A ridge will build in to the east later this week, with an
approaching shortwave on Thursday bringing chances for showers and
an occasional thunderstorm across Central Alabama during the day
Friday. Potential for rain combined with easterly surface flow
across Central Alabama will hold highs down in the upper 70s to low
80s Friday through the weekend.

A quick-moving trough will sweep through the Great Lake Sunday into
Monday, with an associated cold front passing through Central
Alabama on Monday. Much of the model guidance indicates this front
will be moisture-starved, and rain chances will be limited to
southeastern Central Alabama Sunday and Monday. Much of this
expected activity is loosely associated with model depictions of a
tropical disturbance meandering in the Gulf toward the end of the
forecast period. The National Hurricane Center has kept the seven-
day formation potential of this system, currently an area of
disorganized storms in the southwestern Caribbean, at 40 percent,
and it appears for now that the system, should one develop, would
remain south and southeast of Central Alabama.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2024

Scattered cumulus will develop over the southeast portion of the
area with scattered to broken clouds over much of the northwest
two-thirds of the area today and tonight. There will be potential
for some shower activity today and tonight across the northwest
two-thirds of the area, but chances are too low to include at any
location. A surface front will approach the area on Wednesday,
resulting in clouds scattering out through the day with only a few
showers possible across the area.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Some patchy fog may develop across the northern and central areas
this morning. A few showers will be possible across the north
again today, with dry conditions setting up for Wednesday and
Thursday. Min RHs Wednesday will be 45-55 percent, rebounding to
50- 60 percent on Thursday. Northerly 20 ft winds will become
westerly by Thursday, generally less than 7 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  84  62  86 /  20  10   0   0
Anniston    62  84  63  85 /  20  10   0   0
Birmingham  63  85  64  86 /  20  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  64  86  63  87 /  20  10   0   0
Calera      63  86  66  86 /  20  10   0  10
Auburn      65  85  68  84 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  65  88  66  88 /  20  10   0  10
Troy        65  87  65  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05