213
FXUS64 KBMX 112336
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025

High pressure will slowly build over the area through the short
term, with diurnal activity each day. The wind profile will be
weak, with low level flow from the west and southwest. There will
be enough moisture for storms to produce high rain rates, but the
flooding threat will be lower unless a boundary keeps training
cells over an urban area each afternoon. Otherwise, strong storms
are possible with strong winds and moderate hail possible with
instabilities several thousand.

A gradual warming trend will start tomorrow, with temperatures a
degree or two warmer than today. Heat indices today will be in the
mid to upper 90s, with values approaching and reaching triple
digits in many areas Saturday afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025

As high pressure builds over the state, flow will transition to a
northerly direction, lowering moisture and winds slightly through
the weekend. Diurnal activity is still expected, though coverage
may be lower than previous days. Temperatures will continue to
warm each day with most of the area seeing the triple digits heat
index by Sunday afternoon.

The beginning of next week will continue to see that pesky high,
with a trough beginning to move closer to the southeast US. This
will move the state back into a westerly to southwesterly flow,
introducing a mid level jet between the trough and the high
pressure. This jet should remain just to the northwest of the
area, increasing winds over the state slightly. Diurnal
convection will continue to remain possible through each
afternoon, with moisture increasing back over the area by Tuesday.
Highs by Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices reaching values approaching or at 105 degrees in the
afternoon. This trend will continue through mid work week as the
that trough begins to influence the high and wind flow.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025

Thunderstorms will continue to diminish in coverage the next few
hours, with potentially a few showers lingering past 11/03z.
Reduced VIS will again be possible overnight, but confidence was
not high enough to introduce it any FM groups at this time.
Otherwise, additional thunderstorms are likely again tomorrow,
with all terminals carrying TSRA in PROB30 groups past 11/20z

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the
foreseeable future with elevated rain chances today and somewhat
lower chances for the weekend. 20 foot winds should remain less
than 8 mph from the west through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  92  70  94 /  20  30  10  40
Anniston    71  91  72  93 /  20  30  10  30
Birmingham  72  93  73  93 /  20  30  10  40
Tuscaloosa  73  93  74  93 /  20  30  10  40
Calera      72  91  73  93 /  20  30  10  40
Auburn      72  91  74  93 /  20  20   0  30
Montgomery  73  93  74  95 /  20  20  10  30
Troy        72  93  73  94 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION.../44/