Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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993
FXUS64 KBMX 052312
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025

The radar is still clear across C AL, but that is about to change,
at least a little with some shortwave activity. High pressure is
centered just off of the VA coast extending WWD into E Conus with
ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at
times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge.
20-40% pops finally are making a return this afternoon as overall
moisture begins to slowly increase. Although a few showers (can`t
totally rule out a tstorm) may be noted (highest chances SRN
counties), QPF amounts are not high and will not make much of a
dent in the ongoing drought. High temps will be warm through the
short term with no major airmass changes expected yet. Overnight
lows will be mild as well with extra cloud cover and rain at
times.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025

No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance
continues to indicate a low to moderate chance of showers and
tstorms as moisture gradually increases ahead of a surface front.
The front is expected to move into the area on Wed and provide a
little focus, but overall moisture will be limited and rainfall
amounts are expected to be light. Temperatures will moderate
upward for the first part of the week (thru Wed) ahead of the
front with E-ESE meager onshore flow. Starting Thu, lower readings
begin to sneak into the area with a welcome cool down for next
weekend behind the front.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025

By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area,
maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central
counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Tuesday through Wednesday,
although increased cloud cover could work to hold down temps to the
low 80s. A slight cool down is expected toward the end of the
week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Slight rain
chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday
afternoon, subject to change.

Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain
chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt
emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of
the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint,
drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen,
through next week.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025

MVFR CIGS will linger overnight, as rich moisture continues to
push into the area. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast
as well, with all terminals carrying PROB30 groups for SHRA into
tomorrow. Mixing will be slow to get underway in the morning, with
VFR conditions not expected to return until 06/18z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A 20-40% rain chance will be in the forecast this afternoon into
Monday. However, widespread wetting rains are not expected. Any
rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening
drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through
mid week. Winds this afternoon will be generally easterly at up to
12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  82  65  86 /  20  20  10  20
Anniston    67  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  69  83  69  86 /  30  30  10  20
Tuscaloosa  70  85  70  87 /  40  40  20  20
Calera      68  85  68  88 /  30  30  10  10
Auburn      68  82  66  85 /  30  20  10  10
Montgomery  70  86  68  88 /  40  30  20  10
Troy        67  84  66  86 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION.../44/