913
FXUS64 KBMX 190957
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
457 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

Today`s weather should be very similar to yesterday with little
change in the placement of synoptic features and overall pattern.
Flow in the surface to 500 mb layer over Alabama will have weak
cyclonic curvature as a trough slowly shifts eastward across the
eastern CONUS. Most locations will see afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

A 500 mb ridge over Texas will become more prominent on Friday as
it amplifies and shifts eastward. Deep-layer flow will become
more anticyclonic over our area, leading to subsidence, a
reduction in PWAT values, and temperatures reaching the lower 90s
across most of the forecast area.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

With an upper level ridge building into the southeast states at
the start of the long term, conditions will remain dry with a
gradual warming trend for central Alabama. There`s a shortwave
trough (or series of troughs) that is forecast to scoot across the
top of the ridge early next week, which could tease us with a
cold front. However, model blends suggest we will remain rain free
until at least Tuesday, and even then chances don`t get any
higher than 20 or 30 percent.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

With a relatively dry airmass in place, VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be mostly from the
north at 4 to 6 knots during the daylight hours.

87/Grantham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high
pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s
and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from
35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will
remain less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    87  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  89  67  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      89  67  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      87  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  92  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        90  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...87/Grantham