905
FXUS64 KBMX 300615
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 653 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2024

Rain chances were adjusted to account for showers currently
ongoing in two areas across the central and northern portions of
our area. This activity is expected to diminish by 10 PM with the
loss of daytime heating. The potential for fog versus low clouds
overnight is unclear. Though short-range guidance is very bullish
on the potential for fog, many times models underestimate the
persistence of cloud cover. With this update, patchy fog is
included for all of the forecast area, with areas of fog north of
I-20.

87/Grantham

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2024

This afternoon.

A mid and upper level low was centered over East-Central Kentucky
while a surface low was positioned northeast of Nashville, TN. A
stationary front was positioned just southeast of the forecast
area while a surface trough was analyzed to our northwest.
Multichannel water vapor imagery along with the 29/12z BMX
sounding depicts ample low-level moisture generally below 600 mb.

Expect partly cloudy skies far south with mostly cloudy skies
north and central. Isolated showers are expected this afternoon
across portions of the central counties with scattered showers
forecast over the northern counties. Winds will be from the west
at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s far
north to the mid 80s generally along and south of the U.S. Highway
80 corridor.

Tonight.

The mid and upper level low will continue to drift further
northeast overnight while the surface low slowly moves east across
Central Kentucky. a surface trough moves east across the Southern
portion of the Tennessee Valley Region while the surface boundary
to our southeast becomes more diffuse with time.

Look for mostly cloudy skies north and central with partly cloudy
skies south tonight. Lingering showers will persist across
portions of the north and central counties through the evening
then become increasingly confined to the northeast portion of the
area after midnight. Winds will become northwest at 2-4 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 50s far north to the mid
60s southeast.

Monday.

The mid and upper level low will move over West Virginia on
Monday while the surface low over Kentucky interacts with another
surface low across Southwest Virginia. The diffuse front to our
southeast further degenerates into a surface trough with time
while surface high pressure located across the Ozarks will
gradually build into the region from the northwest.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast across much of the area Monday
with some residual thicker and lower clouds across the northeast
portion of the area, at least through midday. Isolated showers
will be possible across the northeast portion of the area through
much of the day with lower chances across the north-central and
northwest counties with dry conditions south. Winds will be from
the west to northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range
from the upper 70s far north and in the higher elevations east to
readings in the mid 80s far south and southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2024

No change in the overall pattern through Thursday. Will continue
to monitor the tropics for the the end of the week and into the
weekend. The National Hurricane Center has continued the 50%
chance for tropical development in the Gulf by the end of the
week. Will continue the mentionable PoPs of 15 to 30% as mentioned
in the previous forecast. Hopefully we will begin to see a
better, or at least more clear, pattern take shape over the next
few days.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2024

There`s very little change expected for much of the upcoming week.
The trough axis finally shifts to our east by Tuesday as we
transition more to zonal flow aloft. Low level ridging builds in and
persists Tuesday through at least Thursday. This will lead to mostly
clear skies and near-normal diurnal temperatures. The main feature
to watch in the forecast will be how an eventual wave in the Gulf of
Mexico evolves as we reach the end of the week and head into next
weekend. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 50% chance
for tropical development in the Gulf by the end of the week. We`ll
need to keep an eye on this over the next several days, which could
change the forecast for next weekend. For now, with little
confidence in the overall synoptic pattern, I`m only carrying
15-30% chance for rain Friday into Saturday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2024

Forecast overnight calls for a mix of low clouds and fog across
north central Alabama, with conditions falling to IFR around
sunrise. Cannot rule out localized LIFR. If clouds do not
materialize, will likely need to adjust vis down due to fog
development.

Improvement is expected through the morning hours with VFR
conditions by 15-16Z, with light winds through the period.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very low rain chances may linger across the north today. Any rain
amounts are expected to be light. Winds continue to decrease
today and will be light to calm by Monday. Min RHs for the next
several days should remain in the 50- 70% with a north to south
gradient (70% across the north to 50% in the south).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  60  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    81  63  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  81  64  83  63 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  82  64  85  63 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      83  65  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      84  66  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  66  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        85  66  86  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14