Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
238 FXUS64 KBMX 121737 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025 Water vapor imagery reveals a trough churning along the East Coast as an upper ridge continues to build into the region. Significantly drier air remains in place with GOES TPW imagery showing PWATs down around 0.5". Increased subsidence and this influx of drier air will keep us dry as we head into the work week. A slight warming trend will kick in today and tomorrow with highs settling into the low to mid 80s. However, it will still feel rather pleasant outside with all the dry air around. Lows tonight fall back into the low to mid 50s. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025 Warm and dry conditions continue through much of the work week as upper level ridging takes control. There are some signs of a pattern shift late this week as an upper trough swings across the Plains while potentially sending a cold front our way. We are still near a week out so this is just something to monitor the trends of. Time to talk drought - The latest Drought Monitor reveals a large area of Moderate to Extreme drought across Central Alabama. Due to ongoing warm and dry conditions, drought conditions are expected to persist and expand across the region over the coming months. As a result, the Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a Fire Danger Advisory. Please refrain from outdoor burning. If you do burn, it is essential to maintain situational awareness and ensure the fire is extinguished. Exercise caution if using machinery or vehicles in areas of dry brush or grass. More at forestry.alabama.gov 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025 VFR conditions and light winds continue through this TAF cycle. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next week. Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon through Thursday. 20 foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Our Significant Fire Potential remains low today. However, o Our risk increases to moderate early next week. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 49 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 51 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 52 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 54 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo