426
FXUS64 KBMX 111840
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

A surface trough located along the Gulf Coast will continue to
push northward through the day today, with a surge of tropical
moisture advecting across Central Alabama. Additional synoptic
lift thanks to 500mb shortwave activity will aid in the
development of numerous to widespread showers with a few storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. Highest PoPs will remain
across eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area,
where highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s. Farther
west, highs will approach 90 degrees with less cloud cover as the
tropical moisture hasn`t quite made it into those areas. Coverage
will be highest this afternoon, but at least scattered showers
will remain in the forecast through the overnight hours tonight.
Low temperatures will be very muggy between 72 and 75 degrees in
most locations.

High rain chances will continue in the forecast through the day on
Tuesday as the surface trough washes out across the Deep South. A
plume of tropical moisture will continue to stream northward, with
plenty of synoptic lift still available for tropical showers and
storms with occasional heavy downpours. Widespread clouds will
keep high temperatures down into the 80s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

A hotter overall trend continues to emerge as we go into the long
term by the end of the week and into the weekend. A broad 500mb
ridge is advertised to set up over the northern Gulf Coast region
by the end of the week and into the weekend. That would translate
to highs back up into the mid 90s with a Moderate to High Heat
Risk as dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s. Normal diurnal
coverage of showers and storms is anticipated, but we may have to
watch for a few storms that may be on the strong to isolated
severe side at least Thursday and Friday. A weak 500mb trough axis
will attempt to slide southward into the Tennessee River Valley,
which would increase westerly shear aloft. With additional
instability from highs topping out in the 90s, we would need to
monitor for the potential of storms with a downburst/microburst
risk. Above normal temperatures are being advertised to continue
through at least the middle of next week.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

Following IFR and MVFR stratus conditions this morning, ceilings
have mixed to VFR for most sites as of 18z. SHRA with isolated
TSRA will remain in the forecast for southern and eastern TAF
sites. Showers will produce brief downpours but aren`t expected to
last long enough to affect prevailing conditions through the
afternoon hours. Also, confidence in prevailing TSRA through this
afternoon remains low as well and have kept prevailing mention of
SHRA for all sites. Surface winds will remain light from the east,
becoming calm or variable overnight. Low IFR stratus conditions
are expected for all terminals overnight as tropical moisture
spreads across the forecast area. IFR conditions are expected to
prevail through at least a good portion of Tuesday morning.

56

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will continue, and there are no fire
weather concerns. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be the most
active during the afternoon and evening hours. A significant
upward trend in moisture will continue through tomorrow. 20-foot
winds will be from the east today and south-southeast on Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  84  71  88 /  30  80  40  70
Anniston    73  83  72  87 /  40  80  40  70
Birmingham  74  84  73  87 /  30  70  40  70
Tuscaloosa  75  86  73  88 /  20  70  30  70
Calera      74  83  73  87 /  30  80  40  70
Auburn      73  83  72  86 /  50  80  30  70
Montgomery  74  86  73  88 /  50  80  30  70
Troy        73  84  71  87 /  50  80  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG