352
FXUS64 KBMX 222011
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
211 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CST WED JAN 22 2025

Key Messages:
- Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight through 9 am
  Thursday morning across our southeast counties where recent
  snowfall will persist overnight, resulting in a corridor of
  colder temperatures compared to surrounding areas.

This afternoon.

A positive-tilted trough extends from over South-Central Canada
that extends southwest to over the Northern and Central Plains
while a general zonal flow pattern persists aloft over the local
area. Strong elongated surface high pressure extends from
Southeast Texas northeast into New England.

Expect sunny skies today with high temperatures from the mid 30s
northwest and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper
30s across the southwest and central counties. An exception will
be across our far southeast where visible satellite imagery
depicts lingering snow cover from late yesterday. In this area,
high temperatures will be in the mid 30s. Winds will be from the
northeast at 5-10 mph.

Tonight.

A longwave positive-tilted trough will move further southeast,
extending from over the northern portion of Lake Superior
extending southwest to over the South-Central Plains. A surface
cold front will extend from the Central Great lakes west across
the Midwest and into the Northern Plains while surface high
pressure remains in elongated form, extending from across our area
northwest into just offshore of the New England Coast.

A few high clouds will move over the area overnight, but
conditions will be mostly clear areawide. Winds will be light from
the east to southeast at 3-5 mph. Another widespread hard freeze
is forecast with lows in the mid to upper teens, except across the
far southeast where readings may fall closer to 10 degrees due to
lingering ground snow cover.

Thursday.

The flow pattern aloft will become more amplified as a longwave
positive-tilted trough extends from over the Northern Great lakes
extending southwest to over West Texas while longwave ridging
develops and amplifies from over Northern California extending
northeast to over Montana. A southwest flow pattern will develop
over the local area while surface high pressure shifts further
southeast, extending from the Northern Gulf Coast extending
northeast into the Mid-Atlantic Region. The surface cold front
will advance southeast, extending from Southeast Canada southwest
across the Ohio River Valley Region into the Ozarks of Arkansas
and extending northwest across the Central and Northern Plains.

Mostly sunny skies are forecast Thursday with winds becoming
south to southwest from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from
around 40 in the higher terrain east to the mid 40s west with
exception across the far southeast where snow will finish melting
by late in the afternoon but high temperatures will be more
limited in the lower 40s across this narrow portion of the
forecast area.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST WED JAN 22 2025

A shortwave and potent vort max will swing across the area on
Friday. Although deeper moisture content will remain low, some low-
level moisture may be enough to squeeze out flurries Friday morning.
Confidence is still low, so did not include any mention of flurries
in the forecast for now, but it does seem plausible given the upper-
level support, and will be interested to see hi-res depictions as
we get closer. Highs trend back towards the 40s/50s this weekend
with cold conditions continuing overnight. Some showers are
expected to arrive during the day Sunday, continuing through much
of Monday.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025

Very cold, below normal temperatures will continue through Saturday
morning over the Deep South. A very quick shot of colder air will
push in from the northwest as a neutral-tilt trough and 500mb
vort max swings eastward across the region. The feature should remain
moisture-starved but will produce some cloud cover over the northern
half of the CWA by Friday afternoon. Highs will remain very cold,
ranging from the upper 30s across the far northern counties to the
low to mid 40s elsewhere. After another hard freeze Saturday
morning, we`ll finally be able to start a noteworthy warming trend
as the overall pattern will shift to a more zonal flow across the
southern half of the CONUS. In addition, we`ll transition into a
warm air advection regime, with a surface ridge centered over the
Carolinas.  Temperatures are forecast to rise close to the 50 degree
mark by Saturday afternoon, which will feel like a heat wave
compared to what we`ve experienced recently. As southwesterly flow
aloft ramps back up by Sunday, rain chances will be on the rise as
the next disturbance ejects northeastward out of Texas. Widespread
showers are currently advertised to affect much of the area by
Monday and possibly into Tuesday as well. The overall pattern beyond
the forecast period certainly appears warmer and more moist overall,
with a steady stream of disturbances moving along the Gulf Coast
states. A cut-off closed low parked over the Four Corners states or
northern Mexico will also highly influence our forecast further
downstream.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect skies to
remain clear through this evening, followed by some high clouds
moving in over portions of our southern counties, northwest with
time. Low-level winds will be from the northeast at 4-8 kts today
then from the south at 2-4 kts overnight and from the southwest at
3-6 kts on Thursday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very cold and dry Arctic airmass will continue through Thursday
across the region. RH values will plummet this afternoon into the
teens and lower 20s. The only exception will be along the I-85
corridor and points southward with dewpoints slightly higher and
where existing snow pack exists. 20 foot winds will be very light
from the southeast this afternoon.

RH values will slightly recover during the day on Thursday dropping
into the 30s during the afternoon, with higher RH values in the 40s
and 50s along and south of I-85. 20ft winds will remain light,
becoming northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     15  43  19  42 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    18  42  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  20  43  22  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  19  45  22  43 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      18  43  23  42 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      15  40  21  43 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  15  41  19  44 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        10  40  19  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Montgomery-Pike-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...05