483
FXUS64 KBMX 120606
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
106 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

 - Medium chances of localized flash flooding through this
   evening.

 - There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms
   through this evening (Monday). Damaging winds and large hail
   are the primary hazards both days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

Well it took a little longer for the band to start to move east
as it rotates around, but it finally is doing so. As of 1245 AM
the main line is basically from Montgomery to Birmingham and slide
east. Look for the storms to be in Anniston by 2 AM. Rains will
be fairly persistent for 2 to 4 hours and will continue to monitor
flooding as cells train over the area in the band. As stated the
good news is the band is sliding east, so hopefully flooding
impacts will be minimal. Still a medium chance at seeing some
localized flash flooding so will continue with the flood watch.

Tuesday, will again be a medium to high chance at showers and
storms, especially in the north as another band works through the
area, on top of boundaries left over from today and tonight`s
activity. We will see the beginning of the end in the west Tuesday
afternoon that will then slide east Tuesday night.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

Tuesday night through Friday.

The upper low will migrate northeast to over Tennessee and Kentucky
Tuesday night then continue northeastward to become centered over
Eastern Ohio by Wednesday afternoon. Wile residual troughing will
persist just east of the state over Georgia and the Carolinas, broad
mid-level ridging will move east over the Southern Plains and build
over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Regions by
Wednesday night. The mid-level ridge axis will move over the local
area Thursday before becoming centered over Georgia and the
Carolinas on Friday. Longwave troughing will deepen over the Desert
Southwest Thursday night and quickly move east toward Texas during
the day on Friday.

Weak high pressure will become centered to the south of the state
Tuesday night while the occluded low moves northeast across the
Southern Ohio River Valley while the cold front pushes further east
o the area through the Carolinas. Multiple low pressure areas will
develop across the Central Plains then consolidate with time from
Wednesday night into Thursday while surface high pressure becomes
centered to the southeast of the state. A surface cold front will
progress eastward from strong low pressure across Northern Minnesota
on Friday extending south across the Midwest and southwest through
the Central Plains states.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated (20-40%) chances for
lingering showers and a few thunderstorms across the northeast half
of the area Tuesday evening, followed by a few (10-30%) lingering
showers across the northeast counties overnight. Isolated (20-40%)
chances for showers and some thunderstorm activity is forecast
across the northeast third of the area Wednesday while drier
conditions are expected across the west and southwest counties. Only
a few (10-20%) lingering showers are expected to persist across the
far east and northeast counties Wednesday night. Dry conditions are
forecast Thursday through Friday morning, followed by the potential
for a few (10-30%) showers and thunderstorms mainly for areas
generally north of Interstate 20 Friday afternoon and evening.

Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s northeast to
the low 60s southwest followed by lows areawide in the low to mid
60s Thursday morning with lows form the upper 60s east to the low
70s west on Friday morning. High temperatures will increase from
around 80 far east to the upper 80s south and west on Wednesday to
readings from the mid 80s fear east to the low 80s south and
southwest Thursday with similar values Friday with highs from the
mid 80s far north to the low 90s south.

Saturday and Sunday.

A zonal flow pattern will take shape over the area Friday night
through Saturday as a series of shortwave disturbances ripple
eastward over the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley Regions. An
expansive upper low dives southeast from over the Pacific Northwest
to over Utah during the day on Sunday, triggering rapidly amplifying
downstream ridging over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River
Valley Regions and resulting in the establishment of a northwest
flow pattern aloft locally.

The surface cold front will move further southeast, extending from
Western New York State southwest through the Mid-South Region and
stretching westward across the Central Plains on Saturday while weak
surface high pressure becomes centered east of the Florida
Peninsula. The cold front surges southward Saturday night,
approaching the Interstate 20 corridor towards daybreak n Sunday
while another reinforcing cold front advances southeast across the
Northern Plains and Western Ohio River Valley.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from a few (10-
30%) early in the day Saturday to scattered (30-50%) activity
towards early afternoon hours with best chances across the northern
and central counties. Isolated (20-35%) chances for showers and
storms will linger Saturday night before scattered (30-50%) chances
for showers and thunderstorms return during the day on Sunday with
best chances north and west.

Lows Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s areawide followed by
readings from the mid 60s far north and east to the upper 60s
southwest on Sunday morning. Highs on both days will range from the
mid 80s far north and far east to around 90 far south.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

The main band of rain and storms stretches from MGM to BHM and
will continue to slide north and east through the overnight hours.
IFR conditions within the storms, with MVFR outside of the storms.
There may be a brief drop to IFR behind the line right at sunrise
as clouds filter in. Brief lull in activity through 15 to 18z,
then scattered to widespread activity after 18z west to 21z east.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rainy conditions will persist through tonight. Rain chances
decrease in the southwest by tonight but remain elevated in
northeastern counties through Tuesday. Min RH values will remain
above 60 percent today and Tuesday in the south, 70 percent in
the north. Some 30 percent RH values return on Wednesday and
Thursday mainly in the south. 20 ft winds will shift to a
southerly direction up to 8 mph this afternoon, then turn
westerly on Tuesday around the same speed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  57  76  58 /  70  70  80  30
Anniston    78  58  77  60 /  70  70  70  20
Birmingham  77  60  75  61 /  80  50  70  20
Tuscaloosa  76  59  77  63 /  80  20  60  10
Calera      77  60  76  63 /  80  40  60  10
Auburn      77  60  77  62 /  70  50  50  10
Montgomery  79  60  79  62 /  80  30  40  10
Troy        79  58  80  62 /  80  20  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16