055
FXUS64 KBMX 070750
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
150 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CST THU NOV 7 2024

Isentropic lift continues today and Friday with variable cloudiness,
though forecast soundings show vertical moisture should become more
shallow with time. Still, instances of drizzle and light showers are
possible for much of central Alabama -- though probably to a lesser
extent than the previous two days overall.

Today and Friday will feature more unseasonably warm temperatures.
Morning lows have been running close to average daytime high
temperatures for many locations, generally +20-25 degrees.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST THU NOV 7 2024

This weekend, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to drift westward through
the Gulf of Mexico where it will begin to encounter unfavorable
environmental conditions which will cause it to weaken and
ultimately diminish over the Gulf. This will be due to a large upper-
level trough which will progress across the Central Plains and
towards the Midwest on Saturday and Sunday. Heights will fall across
Central Alabama as the trough progresses eastward and ridging over
the Eastern CONUS is shoved further eastward while a weak front
moves over the Lower MS River Valley.

Cloud cover, moisture, and rain chances will increase on Sunday with
forcing along the front gradually decreasing as the upper-level
support pulls further away to the northeast. As forcing decreases,
the front will gradually become more east to west oriented as it
lays over, providing at least some continuation of isolated to
scattered showers into Monday. Temperatures will trend more Fall-
like next week due to the cloud cover and rain early on, and then
due to the post-frontal airmass as the front is eventually forced
through the area on Tuesday as ridging builds back over the Central
CONUS. A dry and pleasant airmass looks to settle over the area by
the middle of the week with temperature profiles ranging from the
70s during the day to 50s at night. The pattern looks to remain
progressive late in the extended period, but model continuity begins
to decrease.

86

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CST WED NOV 6 2024

Low clouds will be the main impact through the remainder of the
overnight hours and into early tomorrow morning. A few passing
light to moderate rain showers are possible for MGM, but chances
are low for the other sites. CIGs will drop to MVFR to IFR before
12-15z tomorrow, then will remain around MVFR to VFR through the
rest of the day. There are some indications of shallow fog
development at a few sites, but confidence isn`t high to include.
I think the better chance is for the advection of low CIGs across
the area. Generally light to calm winds expected through the
period.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs will be well above critical thresholds with
overnight RHs maxing at or near 100 percent. 20-foot winds will
average below 10 mph from the northeast today and Friday,
becoming southeast on Saturday. Drizzle or a few light showers
are possible today and Friday, with showers possible mainly across
northwest Alabama on Saturday during the afternoon as a front
approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  61  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
Anniston    80  63  80  60 /  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  81  64  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  82  65  81  65 /  20  10  20  20
Calera      82  66  81  65 /  20  10  20  10
Auburn      79  66  79  65 /  20  10  20  10
Montgomery  83  68  81  67 /  20  10  20  10
Troy        80  67  80  66 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...25