380
FXUS64 KBMX 261900
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
200 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025

This afternoon.

Longwave troughing extended from over Northeast Mexico and
extended north to over the Central Plains. A shortwave was over
portions of Eastern Oklahoma and moving slowly eastward. Expansive
surface high pressure was centered across the Western Great Lakes
while a surface cold front extended from low pressure across
Upstate New York southwest across the Tennessee Valley and into
Southern Arkansas.

Morning low clouds continue to mix out at this writing. Cumulus
development on satellite was beginning to result in some light
radar returns across portions of Northeast Mississippi, extending
southward into Interior Southwest Alabama. Expect further
development with time with greatest potential across the northwest
and western portions of the area through mid-afternoon. The
activity that develops is progged to build southeastward with
time, eventually affecting the metro areas along the Interstate 59
corridor during the late afternoon into early evening before the
activity gradually decreases in intensity and extent. Winds will
be from the northwest at 3-6 mph. High temperatures will range
from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east to the
mid 80s southeast.

Tonight.

Broad mid-level ridging will continue to extend from over
Northeast Mexico northward to over the Central Plains and Mid-
Mississippi River Valley Region overnight. The shortwave over the
Central Plains will move east toward the Mid-South Region late
tonight. Expansive surface high pressure will become centered over
the West-Central Great Lakes Overnight while the surface cold
front progresses southeast, extending from low pressure in New
England southwest across the Carolinas and into the area. The
front is forecast to reach the Interstate 20 corridor late this
evening.

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight with lingering
showers and a few storms in the evening with best chances across
the northern portion of the forecast area, followed by decreasing
activity overnight. Winds will be from the north at 2-4 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 50s far north and northeast
to the lower 60s south.

Sunday.

Broad ridging will continue to expand eastward with time while
the mid-level shortwave will move east over the Southern Tennessee
Valley Region from late morning through the afternoon hours. The
surface cold front will drift further south, just clearing the
forecast area temporarily by sunrise Sunday, then will return
northward toward the U.S. Highway 80 corridor later in the day.

Expect partly cloudy skies to start the day, followed by more
clouds later in the day across the south and west, where chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be higher in the 20-40 percent
range with chances less than 20 percent generally northeast of the
U.S. Highway 280 and Interstate 22 corridors. Winds will be from
the north at 3-6 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80
far north to the upper 80s generally south of the U.S. Highway 80
corridor.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025

Targets of opportunities remain low in regards to the model
guidance with generally dry conditions through midweek. Rain
chances increase on Thursday with best rain chances Thursday
afternoon in the northwest and the spreading across the area
through Friday. Look for higher chances as we draw closer.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025

Very warm and mostly rain-free conditions will prevail through
much of next week. We`ll have an opportunity for a pattern change
by the end of the forecast period as long-range guidance is
advertising a longwave trough developing over the eastern CONUS.
First for Monday, we`ll see an easterly surface flow developing
over Georgia and eastern Alabama with high pressure centered just
off the Carolina coastline. A back-door surface front/moisture
gradient is currently expected to move west into Alabama by Monday
afternoon. Surface convergence, along with isentropic lift due to
westerly to northwesterly flow from 700-500mb will produce some
cloud cover and a slight chance for some showers or a storm Monday
afternoon through Monday evening. Otherwise, most will remain dry
as temperatures warm into the upper 80s with a few lower 90s not
out of the question south of I-85.

Rain chances will remain minimal Tuesday through Thursday as
strong ridging builds in over the region. Above average high
temperatures will continue as most locations top out in the upper
80s to lower 90s each afternoon. By Friday, we`ll finally see the
ridge break down as a 500mb shortwave quickly ejects eastward from
Baja California and into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. A
surface front is then advertised to move into the Southeast during
the day on Friday with the potential for scattered to numerous
diurnally-driven showers and storms. By next weekend, guidance is
presenting a very good chance for much cooler temperatures as a
longwave trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS and a
late-season Continental Polar airmass dives southward. If that
forecast trend holds up over the next couple of days, it won`t be
time to put away that light jacket just yet - as we could be
looking at lows in the 40s and 50s by daybreak next Sunday.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025

Low clouds over the northern sites will mix out through over the
next few hours, resulting in a return to VFR conditions toward mid
afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorm activity will
increase through early to mid afternoon with best potential across
the northwest, then expanding southeast to include most of our
northern sites from 23z-08z generally. The activity will decrease
in coverage and intensity overnight with scattered to broken
clouds persisting through mid-morning on Sunday.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KMGM until further notice due to equipment
communications issues.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An overall warm and mostly rain-free pattern is expected to set up
over Central Alabama through the weekend and much of the upcoming
week. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50% except for far
southeastern Alabama counties today through Sunday. 20ft winds
will remain light through the weekend between 5 and 10mph from
the northwest.

Looking ahead toward the upcoming week, very warm and dry
conditions are expected to materialize as RH values drop into the
low to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. 20ft winds are
also expected to increase during this time, around 10mph from the
southwest on Wednesday with gusts approaching 20mph by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  82  58  85 /  40  10  10  20
Anniston    57  84  60  84 /  30  10  10  20
Birmingham  60  84  63  87 /  30  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  62  86  63  88 /  30  30  10  10
Calera      61  85  64  85 /  20  20  10  20
Auburn      62  84  65  83 /  10  20  10  20
Montgomery  63  87  65  89 /  10  30  10  20
Troy        63  86  63  88 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05