534
FXUS64 KBMX 041116
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
616 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across
   Central Alabama during the pre-dawn and into the daytime hours
   on Sunday. The threats include isolated tornadoes, damaging
   wind gusts, and large hail.

-  Record-breaking high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
   are expected each afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

The phrase for this short term forecast remains record warmth. The
high pressure remains entrenched in the Deep South, keeping the
line of showers and storms still to our west and north. We could see
a few showers in the north and west, much like Thursday, but thunder
should remain out of the area. Any showers should dissipate by 10 PM
tonight. The southerly flow will be brisk at times again today, with
generally 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 MPH. While technically
below wind advisory criteria, a few small limbs and loose objects
will potentially be impacted. As we move into Saturday afternoon, we
could see a few more showers and a few thunderstorms as the high
pressure finally begins to erode and slide east. This will allow the
front to draw a little closer by the afternoon, increasing the rain
chances during the peak heating of the day. A few of the storms
could be strong at times, but severe weather should remain to our
west, at least through the day. Highs today and Saturday will be in
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

Long term portion of the forecast remains front loaded with the
potential for high impact weather. Front that has stayed
tantalizingly close to our area for the past several days will
finally make its push southeastward Saturday night through early
Monday. The most active portion of weather will be from after
midnight Saturday night until Sunday afternoon, ahead of and right
along the front. There`s still some instability to be tapped into
during this period, and ample shear. The most likely scenario is a
line (or broken line) of strong to severe storms that reaches the
northwestern counties shortly after midnight, and exits the
southeastern counties mid-afternoon Sunday. Will note that some
mesoscale models show a slower progression with the front, and a
slower solution could lead to more instability potential for the
southeastern part of our area. The models have also slowed down the
exit of the front and post-frontal rain showers, and will need to
keep some POPs all the way through Monday afternoon.

We`ll ultimately get back to seasonable temperatures next week, as
the upper level pattern does a big shift and brings a noticeably
cooler air mass into Alabama. Beyond about Wednesday, models really
start to diverge on the timing and strength of the next upper level
trough that could potentially bring some small rain chances back
into the forecast.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

Patchy MVFR this morning. These clouds will give way to VFR
conditions again after 15 to 16z along with gusty southerly winds
of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds dissipate to
less than 7 knots after 1 to 2z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will continue to linger in the upper 30 to 40% range
this afternoon and Saturday, before climbing greatly with widespread
rain chances into Sunday. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible
here, with a lot of this rain being moderate to heavy at times.
Expect winds to remain steady from the south through Sunday, before
swinging towards the NW come Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values
from Friday, April 4th to Saturday, April 5th. The table below
shows current record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 4     April 5

Anniston        86          88
Birmingham      88          88
Tuscaloosa      87          89
Montgomery      89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  40
Anniston    88  64  88  65 /  10  10  10  30
Birmingham  89  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  50
Tuscaloosa  89  67  87  66 /  20  10  30  70
Calera      88  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  40
Auburn      87  64  86  66 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  90  64  89  68 /  10  10  10  20
Troy        89  64  87  66 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...16