519
FXUS64 KBMX 150857
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024

Post frontal stratus is currently impacting the north and the
southeast this morning, although not as widespread as to our east.
This will likely burn off around 9 am. So look for decreasing
clouds in these areas, otherwise partly cloudy skies and cool
temperatures will highs in the 60s. High pressure will slide from
the Arklatex area to the Ohio Valley through Saturday while
expanding to include much of the eastern CONUS. Clear to fair
skies tonight, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Some of the
cooler locations may flirt with the 35 to 36 degree mark in the
north, so isolated instances of frost may be apparent on rooftops
and car windshields. However, it does not appear to be enough
locations at this time for a frost advisory. As we approach
sunrise and cool temperatures in place, patchy to areas of fog are
possibility. Not enough drop across the area to warrant a fog
advisory, but will need to monitor this trend. If we get the fog
development earlier than expect and more widespread then
temperatures may remain a degree or two higher. Saturday will be
dry with fair skies with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s
across the region.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024

The long term will start out dry across central Alabama, with
upper level ridging and a surface high forecast to remain
established across area over the weekend. A large and deep upper
level trough will first dig into the southwest states, and then
lift and swing east/northeastward across the middle part of the
country on Monday. This will help bring a warm front up from the
south and increase low level moisture levels across Alabama.
Additional shortwave energy will then further break down our upper
ridge and push a cold front into the state Tuesday night or
Wednesday. Widespread showers are expected to accompany the front,
and there`s a non-zero chance of thunderstorms as well (depends on
the timing of frontal passage and amount of lift associated with
the upper level system). Temperatures will plunge, and Thursday
looks like one of those brisk mostly cloudy days with afternoon
showers or sprinkles.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024

All TAF sites are behind the front with colder air moving into
the area. There is a large swath of lower level moisture by way of
stratus clouds ~2-6kft to our N that will sag/swing SEWD tonight.
Lower IFR cigs are over GA but those are not expected to impact C
AL TAF sites ATTM. Currently the TAFs are VFR, but cigs are
closing in on BHM to scrape them. Will be watching to see how much
progress this area makes elsewhere. Have an MVFR mention for BHM
for cigs for a few hours as the area swings through. NW-NNW winds
are staying up some as well, although they should not be gusty
overnight. Have left fog out for now, but will need to monitor the
latest for any potential amendments if winds calm and/or fog
develops.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions will continue through the weekend. 20 ft
winds will remain light through the weekend, generally between
5-7 mph. Winds will be northerly today and gradually veer to the
east and southeast through the weekend. Humidity levels will
remain above 40 percent through the weekend, with only isolated
instances in the south in the upper 30s on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    65  38  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  42  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  67  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      67  43  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      67  44  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        69  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...08