Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
029 FXUS64 KBMX 131739 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025 Warm and dry conditions continue as upper level ridging remains in control. High temps today and tomorrow will warm into the low to mid 80s. Dry air in place will allow for lows to drop into the 50s again tonight. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025 Mid to upper level ridging and much drier air in place will keep warm and dry conditions in place through the end of the work week. There is a bit more agreement this morning with a potential pattern shift over the weekend. An upper trough will swing across the Plains while sending a cold front our way Saturday into Sunday. This feature will likely bring cooler temps and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. At this time, the greatest instability axis looks to remain to our west within an area SPC is currently highlighting with a Slight Risk on Day 6. With that said, we will need to keep a close eye on the trends as details can and will likely change over the coming days. Time to talk drought (again) - The latest Drought Monitor reveals a large area of Moderate to Extreme drought across Central Alabama. Due to ongoing warm and dry conditions, drought conditions are expected to persist and expand across the region over the coming months. As a result, the Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a Fire Danger Advisory. Please refrain from outdoor burning. If you do burn, it is essential to maintain situational awareness and ensure the fire is extinguished. Exercise caution if using machinery or vehicles in areas of dry brush or grass. More at forestry.alabama.gov 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025 VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Winds will generally remain below 10 knots. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20 foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 54 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 56 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 55 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 57 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 55 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 54 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo